As of the making of this video on September 13th, 2022, Ukrainian armed forces have delivered Russia
its greatest tactical defeat since it failed to take Kyiv at the start of the war. Many
in the west are calling Ukraine's recent counteroffensive 'game changing', and even
Russian propagandists have expressed great alarm and concern over the success of the offensive,
going as far as to admit Russian forces were forced to retreat from the Kharkiv region.
But how in the world was this counteroffensive so successful, and does this risk the use
of nuclear weapons by a desperate Russia? Ukraine's counteroffensive began on September 6th,
but had been gestating for weeks before. To much fanfare, Ukraine announced a significant
build-up of forces in the south aimed at retaking Kherson. The city is a strategically
important hub in the south of Ukraine that would allow Ukrainian forces to push even
deeper into the south and even attack Crimea with long range munitions. With an attack on
the Saky air base in Crimea in early August that left many Russian planes destroyed or damaged,
an attack on Kherson seemed like a serious threat. The build-up of Ukrainian forces
prompted Russia to redeploy ten battalion tactical groups to the south to reinforce the region.
It's still too early and details remain classified, but it's beginning to look
as if the attack on Kherson had the goal of overextending the Russian line over
the Dnieper River- or perhaps Ukraine simply exploited weakened Russian positions in the
north. What's for sure is that while the attack on Kherson has made some modest progress, Russia
has absolutely been routed around Kharkiv, with a full-scale retreat by the Russians so chaotic
and panicked that tens of millions of dollars of equipment and ammunition was simply left behind.
The key to Ukraine's success begins with one weapon system- the High Mobility Artillery
Rocket System, developed and fielded by the United States, and provided to Ukraine in
small quantities at the start of summer. Wary of committing large amounts of sophisticated
equipment that might end up destroyed or captured by superior Russian firepower,
the dozen or so HIMARS units initially supplied were put to immediate and
cleverly devastating use by the Ukrainians. HIMARs combine far superior range than traditional
artillery with precision, allowing Ukrainian forces to hit Russia where it hurt the most.
With a range of about 57 miles (92 km) using standard rockets, or 190 miles (300 km) using
the Army Tactical Missile System, HIMARS enabled Ukraine to reach out to enemy rear areas and
devastate command posts and supply hubs. Russian senior officers, who were already an endangered
species on the Ukrainian battlefield, were now being assassinated from dozens of miles away.
This forced the relocation of command posts a hundred miles or more away from the front lines.
This simple move was devastating to an army with a heavy top-down command structure.
Russian forces lack a strong non-commissioned officer corps thanks to their heavy reliance on
conscripts and difficulty keeping professional soldiers interested in reenlistment. This means
that senior officers often have to be on or near the front lines to ensure their orders
are carried out- but now it was suddenly very dangerous for them to be anywhere near the front,
forcing them back and giving them less operational control over their units. But we'll get more
into that when we discuss the reason Ukrainian units are more successful than Russian units.
It wasn't just command posts that had to be moved, but ammunition and fuel depots as well. With
several weeks of 'shaping operations', Ukraine set the stage for the counteroffensive. Russia,
showing incredible ineptitude, largely stood by and allowed these shaping operations to
continue nearly unchallenged. The end result was catastrophic, as Ukraine
destroyed huge amounts of logistical supplies and forced Russia to move its supply hubs far
from the front. This had the direct effect of limiting the maneuverability of Russian units,
who now had to wait twice or even three times as long for resupply as they normally would.
Being forced to sit on your hands is a good way to lose in modern war, as Russia quickly found out.
Another American weapon that Ukraine put to excellent use in shaping the battlefield before
its counteroffensive was the HARM missile, or high-speed anti-radiation missile. Provided
to Ukraine in classified numbers, an effort by American and Ukrainian engineers resulted
in the adaptation of western style mounts for the HARM for Ukraine's Soviet-made planes. Once
equipped with HARMS, Ukraine's air force began to target Russian radars to devastating effect.
The loss of air defense and counter-battery radars made it increasingly difficult for
Russia to defend against air attack or retaliate against Ukrainian artillery with its own barrages.
This ended up being a major game changer on the battlefield, bringing a level of parity
between the two powers. The loss of confidence in detecting and shooting down Ukrainian fighters was
likely part of the reason why the attack in the north was such a surprise- Russian recon aircraft
and drones were apparently not being used in large amounts, likely due to fear of being shot down.
The next reason for Ukraine's wildly successful counteroffensive is its
fundamental military strengths over Russia. Russia is by far the more powerful military,
but it’s also by far the least capable, a fact Ukraine has exploited to great advantage.
Back in 2014 when Russia rolled into Crimea, the Ukrainian military was at a crisis point. It was
terribly trained and poorly equipped, trying to fight off Russian forces by using the same Soviet
doctrine that Russia itself used. However, shortly after the Crimean invasion, the United States and
other NATO partners entered Ukraine and began a comprehensive training and restructuring program
for its military. Hundreds of Americans would make the trip to Ukraine over the next eight years,
training Ukraine in western doctrine and tactics and completely reshaping its military.
The result is not perfect, but Ukraine's armed forces today more closely resemble a professional
western force than they did in 2014. Ukrainian junior officers and commanders are encouraged to
seize the initiative and make their own decisions in the midst of combat, a characteristic lacked
by the Russian side. This allows Ukrainian units to be far more adaptable and maneuverable than
their Russian counterparts, who must sit and wait for orders from their higher-ups
before doing anything not already discussed in contingency planning. As Ukrainian forces began
to discover vulnerabilities in Russian defenses in the north, this freedom of initiative would
come to play in significant ways as Ukrainian commanders ordered their units to further exploit
defensive gaps. Unable to adjust their defenses as the combat environment evolved around them,
Russian units were forced to simply flee- though a significant number would simply surrender.
The penetration of Russian lines allowed Ukrainian armor and mechanized infantry to then sweep into
the rear areas and wreak havoc amongst the lightly defended support units there such
as the artillery and support units. This only aggravated the growing panic from the Russians,
prompting even further unauthorized retreats. Once gaps were exploited in the Russian lines,
the fundamental structure of the Russian military worked directly against it. Russia
is fundamentally an artillery army- it knows it is technologically and professionally outclassed
by its western counterparts, and has thus sought to achieve some level of parity with the west
by fielding significant artillery forces, outnumbering even the United States in tube
and rocket artillery. Yet this overreliance on artillery means that once their front
line has been compromised, there's little that Russian support can do. Artillery is slow- even
self-propelled guns- and poorly suited to defend against a fast-moving mechanized offensive without
infantry in the way to slow it down. Once Ukrainian forces were through Russian lines,
artillery crews had no choice but to flee- often leaving their equipment behind.
Another key difference between Russian and Ukrainian forces is not just training or doctrine,
but simple esprit de corps. Russian forces have long known to be increasingly demoralized by the
grinding war in Ukraine. For starters, none of them saw Ukrainians as enemies before the war,
but rather as a brother nation. Then when the war began, they were promised a swift victory and that
they'd be met with hugs and flowers by the locals. Instead, the offensive to take Kyiv failed while
Russian troops in the east were met with Molotov cocktails. The deployment of modern western
weapons in Ukraine took an even greater toll on Russian morale, as American HIMARS and Excalibur
guided artillery shells wreaked precision havoc amongst Russian forces. Compounding
Russian logistics problems led to some units running completely out of food and being forced
to steal or scavenge from locals, creating even more morale problems for the Russian military.
By comparison, Ukraine's forces are highly motivated both by their desire to defend their
homeland, but also by a sense of vengeance over Russian atrocities across occupied territories.
Putin, now known as the Butcher of Bucha, has waged a campaign of unrestricted warfare
against Ukrainian civilians, and his military has used murder and worse as tools meant to
weaken Ukrainian morale and will to fight. However, these tactics have backfired and
given Ukraine's defenders an even greater desire to throw Russian forces out of their country.
President Zelensky's refusal to leave the capital when it seemed as if it would fall any day made
him an instant hero in the eyes of the people, and gave the nation a critically needed morale boost.
The Russians don't now why they are fighting, the Ukrainians on the other hand know exactly
what's at stake if they don't. Ukrainian troops are not just better trained and increasingly
better equipped, but far more motivated to fight than Russians. While the exact number
is unknown yet given the secrecy of the ongoing operation, it's estimated that as many as 3,000
Russians may have surrendered to the Ukrainians. What is known is that Ukrainian authorities have
said that they have recently captured so many POWs that they are running out of room to house them.
The final reasons for Ukraine's success comes down to Russia itself. Despite formerly being
considered the world's second most powerful nation, Russia has proven that it’s completely
unprepared to face a modern foe. In face of modern, western weapons and doctrine, Russian
forces have faltered or stumbled directly into disaster. They seem to show no recognition of the
power of long-range precision munitions, perhaps best explained by the fact that Russia itself has
traditionally fielded few smart weapons, relying heavily on dumb unguided munitions. A staggering
disregard for electronic and signals intelligence has allowed the United States and other NATO
nations to track down and pinpoint Russian VIPs, passing the information along to Ukrainian
front-line units armed with precision Excalibur artillery rounds or other smart weapons.
The US has not commented much on the intelligence it shares with Ukraine,
but many suspect that the Americans are giving Ukraine pretty much every drop of intelligence
that they gathers. With drones flying just outside the conflict area, satellites, human sources,
and electronic eavesdropping measures, the US intelligence apparatus has been able to provide
Ukraine with mountains of intelligence and made surprise military operations by Russia all but
impossible. The Ukrainians have also been able to tap into a wealth of intelligence provided by
partisans behind enemy lines, as well as fully exploiting Russian foolishness. Multiple times
now Russian tv crews have filmed near sensitive military equipment or personnel, leading to an
immediate and devastating response by Ukrainian forces. In one particularly noteworthy incident
in August, a Russian reporter posted a photo of Wagner group mercenaries outside their barracks
in occupied Ukraine. The photo included the street address of the building, and Ukraine
used HIMARS launchers to level it, leading to the death of up to 100 Wagner mercenaries.
As the war continues to rage on, some or even all of Ukraine's gains could be
reversed- though that's very unlikely. Russian forces are increasingly exhausted, demoralized,
and rebellious- and it's rumored that Russia is suspending the sending of new units into
Ukraine. This could make an increasingly desperate Putin resort to extreme measures such as the use
of chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons. Facing growing opposition at home as multiple
municipalities including St. Petersburg and two Moscow districts call for his resignation,
Putin almost certainly views a general retreat from Ukraine as wholly unacceptable. This may
make the next phase of the war even more, not less dangerous than before. However,
that's no reason for western support for Ukraine to falter right when it matters
most. With fighting set to die down during the difficult winter season,
this is the time for the west to prepare Ukraine for even greater counteroffensives
come springtime, this time equipped with large numbers of western vehicles and weapons.
Now go check out The US Weapon Beating Russians in Ukraine, or click this other video instead!