Speaker 1: We have a headline that is scaring many in our audience. 1 million voters have switched
to the Republican Party. Does this spell disaster for the upcoming 2022 midterms? Well, let's think
about it. These are the most important midterms in a long time. Now, if you've been watching this
show for a while, you know, I am not hyperbolic with the importance of any particular election.
I've said this before. In 2012, when Mitt Romney was challenging Barack Obama's reelection,
I supported Barack Obama. I didn't support Mitt Romney. I believed Obama was the better choice.
But there was no feeling, at least for me, that the future of the country was riding on that.
Yeah, I agreed more with Obama than Romney. Romney would have lowered taxes for the rich and would
have done other things I don't agree with in his social views. As a conservative Mormon or
not my views. But it was not the most important election of our time of the 2014 midterm. It was
not the most important election of our time, and I didn't call it that at the time.
I can't remember a more important midterm than the 2022 midterm. And so when we now see these
headlines, more than 1 million voters switched to the Republican Party in a warning for Democrats,
it is a concerning and disturbing headline. Now, yesterday, we talked about on the one hand,
it seems as though Democrats actually have some pretty reasonable they have a reasonable case
to make with two issues the overturning of Roe v Wade and the unwillingness and disinterest from
Republicans in acting on gun safety legislation. Democrats have some powerful things to run on.
If voters still care about them in four and a half months, that's good for Democrats. On the
other hand, what about this? A political shift is beginning to take hold, writes the Associated
Press. Tens of thousands of suburban swing voters who helped fuel the Democratic Party's gains
are becoming Republicans. More than a million voters across 43 states have switched to the
Republican Party over the last year, according to data analyzed by the AP. The previously unreported
number reflects a phenomenon playing out in virtually every region of the country
Democratic and Republican states, along with cities and small towns. In the period since
Joe Biden replaced Trump. Nowhere is the shift more pronounced and dangerous for Democrats than
in the suburbs where well-educated swing voters who turned against Trump's Republican Party in
recent years are swinging back. Swinging back. Far more people are switching to the Republican Party
in counties from Denver to Atlanta, Pittsburgh and Cleveland. Republicans also gaining ground
in. Medium sized cities such as Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. Raleigh, North Carolina. Augusta,
Georgia. And Des Moines, Iowa. Now, what does this mean? Well, on the one hand, we have to understand
that the United States is a country plagued by ignorance. The country is plagued by ignorance. So
you see very clear differences. Democrats, not nearly liberal or left wing enough for me,
but at least connected to reality on fundamental issues of science, of reality to some degree about
economic justice. And it's not a perfect party. Of course, I have so many complaints about the
Democratic Party, but at least connected to reality. On the Republican side, particularly
as Trumpism has has taken over, there has been this plague of ignorance which is not only
present, it's celebrated. And you'll see some clips later in the show that remind us of this.
And it is not a shock in that sense that we are seeing voters to some degree fall for
Joe Biden. Did high gas prices, Joe Biden did inflation.
Joe Biden is responsible for what's happening in Ukraine or whatever the case may be. And
that they would say, well, I guess I'll abandon the Democratic Party and vote for Republicans.
It doesn't make any sense when we think about it. It seems completely backwards. But that's
not a shock. But there's a couple of caveats with this voter registration shift that I think
are important to keep in mind. One is there are many libertarians that are becoming Republicans.
And so there's a difference between a Democrat becoming a Republican and a libertarian becoming
a Republican. Libertarians in the United States tend to vote with the Republican Party anyway.
The American libertarian movement is pretty right wing. And so if you take this would sort of be
like, I'm an independent voter, I'm unregistered, I'm not a Democrat or a Republican. If I were to
announce to you I am now becoming a Democrat, if a million people like me said I am now a Democrat,
does it really change anything about the outcome of elections? Because I mostly vote for Democrats
anyway. I just don't care about the Democratic Party. It's not if I'm going to be a member of
something, I want to do that enthusiastically. I have no enthusiasm for the Democratic Party as
a party, so I'm just an independent and I vote for Democrats. 4 million people like me become
Democrats doesn't really make a difference. And so of those million, I don't have the exact numbers,
but a bunch of them are libertarians who are mostly right wing and vote for Republicans
or don't vote at all becoming Republicans. And it doesn't necessarily mean that the balance is going
to shift. The other caveat is that this study about the million voters becoming Republicans.
This was before the gun rights discussion that has surfaced after a number of school shootings
and mass shootings. And this is before the Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade.
And so while we can believe the data that the data this is good data, that the data is real.
There's the libertarian element that I mentioned, which is a caveat. And there's also we don't know
yet what the full effect of Roe v Wade being overturned and the anger about Republican
unwillingness to deal with with gun safety, that is not yet part of the polling. So is it
a good sign for 22? No, it's not a good sign, but it doesn't have to be the disastrous sign
that some are making it out to be. That's my interpretation. Let me know yours. You can
find me on Twitter at David Pakman. We're going to take a quick break and be back right after this.