For the last two years, international attention has been focused on the bitter
and brutal civil war in Ethiopia's northern province of Tigray.
However, during this time, another major issue has been steadily rising.
Ethiopia's completion of a massive dam on the
Nile River has led to severe tensions with nearby Egypt.
But despite repeated efforts to reach an agreement,
the two countries remain at loggerheads over the issue.
So, what exactly is the dispute all about? And could it really
spark Africa's next resource conflict, as some have suggested?
Hello and welcome. If you're new to the channel, my name is James Ker-Lindsay,
and here I take an informed look at international relations, conflict, security, and statehood.
It's generally accepted that natural resources are a significant source
of tension and conflict in modern international relations.
Around the world, many countries have bitter disputes over access to energy resources,
such as oil and gas reserves, as well as to precious metals and minerals.
However, another source of competition centers on access to fresh water.
As well as providing drinking water and sanitation, it's
also used for agriculture and energy production.
More to the point, as climate change affects water supplies around the world,
it's likely to become an ever greater source of instability in the years ahead.
One of the world's most crucial water access disputes is in Africa.
Over the past decade Ethiopia's construction of a massive dam
on the Nile River has led to growing tensions with its near neighbour, Egypt.
But despite numerous efforts to reach an agreement,
the two countries have so far failed to secure a deal.
And as the project nears completion, there are genuine fears that this
could have serious consequences for regional peace and security.
The Arab Republic of Egypt and the Federal Democratic Republic
of Ethiopia are in the northeast corner of Africa.
Separated by Sudan, they lie less than a thousand kilometres, or roughly 700 miles, from each other.
The two countries are remarkably similar in size and population.
At 1.1 million square kilometres, or 426
000 square miles, Ethiopia is the 26th largest UN member.
And with around 120 million inhabitants, it's the second most populous country in Africa.
Meanwhile, Egypt is around a million square kilometers,
or 390 000 square miles, making it the 29th largest member of the UN.
With 110 million inhabitants, it's the third most populous African state.
Economically, however, they differ considerably.
In 2021, Egypt's per capita GDP stood around US$3700 compared to US$925 in Ethiopia.
Egypt and Ethiopia are two of the oldest countries in Africa.
With links stretching back to ancient times, their modern relationship in fact can be traced to 1927,
when they became the first independent African countries to establish diplomatic relations.
And in 1945 they became two of the four founding members of the
United Nations hailing from Africa, along with South Africa and Liberia.
But while they've had a long history, their relationship has often been strained.
Points of tension included Ethiopia's recognition of Israel in 1961 and their separate alignment
with the United States and the Soviet Union during the latter stages of the Cold War.
However, there's one issue that shaped their relationship over any other:
the question of the management of the Nile River.
At around 6,700 kilometres, or roughly 4,000 miles,
the Nile is the longest river in Africa and, arguably, in the world.
As such, it's composed of two main tributaries.
The longest is the White Nile, which begins in the
Great Lakes region in central Africa around Rwanda, Kenya, and Tanzania.
The other is the Blue Nile.
This starts in Ethiopia, joining the White Nile in Sudan.
For Egypt, the Nile is a crucial natural resource.
While its role in ancient times is well recorded, even today it's estimated that it provides
almost 98 of the country's drinking water and virtually all the water needed for agriculture.
To this extent, Egypt is extremely sensitive about anything that might disrupt the river's flow.
Meanwhile, Ethiopia also sees the river as an essential resource.
Given that most of its population lives off farming, it also has significant water needs.
But the Nile also has the potential to play another vital role.
As one of the fastest growing economies in Africa,
Ethiopia has seen massive growth in demand for energy.
Indeed, even today, the government estimates that almost half the
population doesn't have access to electricity.
To this extent, the Ethiopian government has
long seen the potential for harnessing the Blue Nile for hydroelectric power.
And it's this that's led to the current tensions.
From the mid-1950s onwards,
Egypt became increasingly concerned that Ethiopia would one day try to build a dam.
Although successive Ethiopian governments certainly had such plans,
they appeared to hold off out of fear of possible Egyptian reprisals.
Indeed, in the 1970s, Egypt threatened War if the project went ahead.
And this continued into the New Millennium, with voice recordings of the Egyptian leader, Hosni
Mubarak, apparently suggesting that Egypt would be prepared to bomb any new dam on the Nile River.
However, all this changed in 2011.
As the Arab Spring grew, Mubarak was forced from power.
Spotting its opportunity to act, Ethiopia decided to press ahead with constructing what
would now become known as the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, or GERD.
Located less than 30 kilometers from the the border with Sudan,
and estimated to cost over four and a half billion dollars, the project is a massive undertaking.
Standing almost 150 meters high, when it's finally filled, at some point after 2024,
the reservoir will contain 74 billion cubic meters of water
and cover an area of 1900 square kilometers, or 720 square miles.
More to the point, it will become the largest hydropower project in
all of Africa and one of the largest in the entire world.
In this sense, the dam has become nothing less than the symbol of Ethiopia's growing ambitions.
And for Addis Ababa this is a way to lift tens of millions of its citizens out of poverty.
As expected, the start of the project led to
severe tensions between Ethiopia and its two neighbours: Sudan and Egypt.
But while Khartoum originally opposed the project, within a few years it had seemingly
shifted its position seeing the potential for providing the country with extra electricity.
It now appeared to support the project.
In contrast, Egypt took a much stronger position.
While it insisted that it didn't object to Ethiopia pursuing its
development goals through the dam, Cairo argued that the project had to
consider the legitimate interests of the other countries affected.
At first, it seemed as if some sort of agreement was possible.
In 2015, the sides signed a declaration of principles.
But although this was widely hailed as a significant step towards a
comprehensive settlement, little came from it.
Instead, behind the scenes, tensions steadily grew.
This came to a head in 2016, when Ethiopia openly accused Egypt of
supporting separatist groups in the country, including the increasingly
violent Oromo Liberation Front - a claim vehemently denied by the Egyptian government.
Despite this, just two years later, there appeared to be signs that a new relationship was emerging.
In June 2018, the new Ethiopian Prime Minister, Abi Ahmed Ali, held what
appeared to be an amicable meeting with the Egyptian leader, Abdul Fatah El Sisi, in Cairo.
Emphasising the ancient links between the two countries, a link created by the Nile River,
the leaders suggested that they were willing to agree on the dam.
Speaking of the joint press conference afterwards,
Abi Ahmed insisted that Ethiopia would never hurt the people of Egypt.
But, as before, hopes of a breakthrough
were short-lived and tensions again soon started to increase.
By late 2019, the relationship had completely broken down with
Abi Ahmed now threatening war if Egypt acted against the dam.
And it was perhaps with this in mind that news emerged, in July 2020,
that mediation by the African Union had seen the sides reach what was termed "a
major a common understanding" that could pave the way for a breakthrough agreement.
However, while critical aspects of the issue had seemingly been addressed,
it was suggested that specific key elements still needed to be worked out.
These included details of how much water would be released
if a severe drought occurred and how any disagreements would be handled,
with reports that Ethiopia rejected the principle of binding arbitration.
Since then, there's been little further progress.
As well as renewed Sudanese concerns about the project,
Egypt has also started to take a tougher line.
As the country's foreign minister said, in 2021,
"more than a hundred million Egyptians face an existential threat from a dam of
Mammoth proportions being built along the artery that gives them life."
The seriousness of the issue has also been underscored by growing International concern
about the situation. In 2020 and 2021, the UN Security Council discussed the
matter - issuing a presidential statement, a document short of a formal resolution,
calling on the sides to resume negotiations under African Union auspices.
But despite the cause for diplomacy, there's been little sign of movement.
Indeed, tensions have continued to grow.
With construction now complete, Ethiopia has already begun filling the dam - a move Egypt
heavily condemned in a letter to the Security Council, issued in July 2022.
More recently, Egypt's accused Ethiopia of consistently obstructing talks at the
same time it's been trying to raise attention over the issue in other International forums.
For instance, Cairo pushed for the situation to be put on the agenda of the African Union
Summit meeting, held in February 2023, in the Ethiopian Capital, Addis Ababa.
Meanwhile, to underscore the seriousness of the situation,
Egypt repeatedly emphasises that it can't tolerate such a fundamental challenge to its interests
as it argues without an agreement the project threatens international peace and security.
Of course, the underlying meaning here is obvious.
And for all these reasons the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance dam is still
widely viewed as one of Africa's most serious potential flash points.
And yet, despite all these growing tensions, there may well be a way out of the problem.
A new study based on computer modeling has shown that there is in fact an optimal outcome
that can be reached that takes on board the wishes and concerns of all three countries.
But, despite this, there still seems to be little suggestion that Egypt and Ethiopia,
as well as Sudan, are willing to discuss this.
While it might seem unlikely that the project will result in a full-scale war, as the dam
continues to fill, and is on course have become fully operational in 2024, the issue may well
yet spark a conflict between two of the largest, oldest and most influential countries in Africa.
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