In one corner, the Lone Star state, and in the other, the full might of the United States
of America.
Thought it was once an independent fledgling nation, Texas quickly joined with the United
States when facing extinction, yet in recent years polls have shown a desire to secede
from the US as high as 19% amongst Texans.
What would happen if Texas declared war on the US in a bid to secede though?
Hello and welcome to another episode of The Infographics Show's You Versus series, today
we're putting the Lone Star state against the combined might of the United States.
Most of what's today known as Texas once belonged to Mexico, whom after winning its independence
from Spain in 1821, opened Mexican Texas up to settlement by white Americans who were
looking for new lands to settle.
Yet when the Mexican government started leaning towards more hard-right politics, the white
and Mexican Texans united to wage a war of secession from Mexico, winning it and declaring
the formation of the Republic of Texas in 1836.
Just years later Mexican troops would reinvade Texas, and as the conflict escalated Texas
found itself in a difficult position.
Secret appeals to the United States saw the American Congress approve the annexation of
Texas as a state in 1845, thus giving Texas the protection of the United States military,
though sparking a war between the US and Mexico.
So how would a modern day Texas stack up against the US, and what would happen in case of a
war?
Texas as an independent country would be the world's 11th largest economy, putting it ahead
of South Korea and just behind Canada.
Its GDP in 2017 was $1.7 trillion, making it the second wealthiest state after California
who's GDP is $2.75 trillion.
Economically speaking, things are already looking bad for Texas as just California alone
would be more than capable of outspending Texas in a prolonged military conflict.
Up against the rest of the US's $17.69 trillion, Texas would have no hope of standing up economically
against the US.
Texans make up 164,234 of all active duty military troops in the US military, once more
putting it behind California with 184,549.
Without Texas, the US would still be able to field about 1.1 million troops though,
nearly outnumbering Texas by 12 to 1.
Texas could call up on a national guard and reservist force of 55,000, putting it just
1,000 behind California's 56,000, but would be hopelessly outmatched versus the rest of
the US's 750,000 reserve forces.
Texas is home to 15 active-duty military bases, but most of these bases are either logistical
or support bases- primarily training bases for US Air Force, Army, and Navy personnel,
to include Air Force and Navy pilots.
The state is home to only one bomber wing and one fighter strike wing base, though these
bases are equipped with the B-1 lancer bomber and the F-16 Block C, with F-16s making up
the bulk of Texas’ reserve air forces.
Texas also lacks major ground equipment for offensive operations, though some of its reserve
forces are equipped with mostly modern M-1 Abrams.
Texas also lacks any major naval bases or naval assets aside from some coast guard vessels.
So what would happen in the case of war, and would Texas have any chance of winning a conflict?
For this scenario we'll go ahead and rule out nukes, and consider that the conflict
has been brewing for a while, so Texans serving in the US military have returned home to fight
and no US assets are still remaining in the state.
First, the US would immediately attempt to target the Texan government, hoping to eliminate
Texan leadership as quickly as possible in hopes of enforcing a new peace and eventual
re-admission into the United States.
Texan forces would be extremely hard pressed to defend against American air strikes.
With just a single fighter wing and about three dozen F-16s, Texan air forces would
be hopelessly outmatched against the over 2,000 strike aircraft that make up the rest
of the US military's might.
While realistically most of these aircraft would be forward-deployed to American bases
overseas in preparation for any possible conflict, the reserve fighter wings of nearby states
would be more than a match for Texan air forces until a naval battle group could be assembled
in the Gulf of Mexico.
US reserve air forces would be funneled to air fields in New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Louisiana,
from where they could quickly establish air superiority and start running strike missions
against key Texan communications and military installations.
Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana would be especially problematic for Texas, as it
houses the US Air Force's 2nd Operations Group, featuring three squadrons of B-52 Stratofortress
heavy bombers, with two additional B-52 squadrons attached.
Barksdale is also home to components of the US Air Force Global Strike Command, which
features nuclear capable B-2 stealth bombers which could be quickly and easily repurposed
for deep-penetration conventional bombing missions against Texas.
Just this one base alone would bring more firepower to the fight against Texas than
the air forces of most other nations in the world.
Texas would indubitably choose to concentrate its air forces near the seat of its government-
which would likely remain Austin.
Such a concentration of air power in a small geographic area may prove problematic for
conventional US aircraft, but would do little to protect the capital from raids by B-2 stealth
bombers.
As Texas lacks any major military radar installations or airborne early warning assets, it would
have to rely on unsophisticated civilian weather radar which would prove ineffective in detecting
and targeting incoming stealth aircraft.
Within hours of the conflict starting, American F-22s and F-35s from California, Utah, New
Mexico, and Florida would quickly arrive on-scene, supported by airborne refueling aircraft to
immediately establish air superiority over all Texan airspace, to include the capital.
Concentrating its air power around the capital, Texas could expect a favorable kill ratio
even against 5th generation aircraft if the US forces attacked piecemeal- this would not
be the case however and the US would instead commit its air forces enmasse, forcing Texas
to either take to the skies in force or risk having its aircraft destroyed on the ground.
F-16s facing off against a coordinated attack by several flights of F-22s and F-35s would
not last long, and it's likely Texas simply wouldn't try as it would be a suicidal mission
for its pilots.
The US would thus use its overwhelming air power advantage to pound Texas into submission.
Its oil infrastructure, a huge source of its wealth, would be devastated, and with few
ground-based air defense assets there would be little Texas could do to stop the attacks.
Texas could always choose to retaliate with its wing of B-1 lancers, yet even as capable
as these bombers are, they would fare very poorly against the massive net of air and
ground-based power that the US would quickly cast around the state.
Texas’ only victory in the air war would be a surprise attack against Barksdale Air
Force base before the war formally started by its B-1 Lancers, which could devastate
the various B-52 and B-2 bomber squadrons located there.
To make matters worse for Texas, its complete lack of a navy would quickly see it lose all
control of the Gulf of Mexico to the US Navy.
Its coast guard vessels are mostly geared around search and rescue and drug interdiction,
and would pose little to no threat against US navy vessels.
With the Gulf firmly in US control, the various oil platforms belonging to Texas would be
quickly neutralized, and a complete embargo placed on Texas by sea.
Mexico, which would not want to anger the US, would quickly shut the border between
itself and Texas down, enacting a complete blockade of all trade for Texas and financially
starving the state.
Texan ground forces would be largely meaningless in any war.
Lacking any serious armor or infantry forces, Texas would be forced to rely on its reservists,
who would have to operate with zero air cover.
The US could simply afford to ignore Texan ground forces, and any attempts by Texas to
retaliate against US forces over ground would be completely suicidal, as any ground attacks
would be immediately obliterated by overwhelming US air power.
If a ground invasion was initiated, Texas would be best served by opting to fight an
Iraq/Afghanistan insurgency war, and could prove problematic for US forces given the
high rates of gun ownership in Texas.
Unlike insurgent forces in Iraq and Afghanistan though, Texan forces would not be supplied
by any outside agents such as Iran or Russia, and even a Texan insurgency would be squashed
within a year or two for a lack of supplies and military-grade hardware.
In all likelihood though the US would simply opt to starve Texas into submission.
With naval blockades in the Gulf of Mexico and Mexico closing its borders, the Texan
economy would not last long.
Air strikes against key economic targets would hasten Texas' economic collapse, and in the
end any war for independence would likely end within just months with not a single shot
fired on the ground by either side.
Simply put, Texas may pride itself on being the Lone Star state, yet militarily it very
much relies on the rest of the US military for protection, and would be completely unable
to secure its own territory or trade routes in case of war.
Disagree?
How do you think this war would play out?
Also, make sure you check our other video, North Korea vs United States - Who Would Win!
Thanks for watching and don’t forget to like, share and subscribe!
See you next time!