China's political and military leaders want one thing above all: to reconquer Taiwan.
both Taiwan and Ukraine are countries that have tried, with varying degrees of success,
to forge their own institutions, forge relations with the West and consolidate a democratic system.
Now the invasion of Ukraine has set off the alarm bells again. It has been the
second and perhaps the final warning. You see, for decades it has been taken
for granted that the Chinese People's Liberation Army was not capable enough to
invade Taiwan and take control of the island. However, according to many military experts,
all that could change very soon. Given the plans China currently has in place,
by the years 2025-2027, the Asian giant could be ready to launch its offensive.
And that is why in Taiwan they are paying very, very close attention
to what is happening in Ukraine. C1("The determination and resilience
that the Ukrainian people have shown in the wake of Russia's invasion have inspired Taiwan,
reinforcing our commitment to defend our freedom." – Bi-khim Hsiao,
Taiwan's representative to the US) And keep in mind, we are not just
talking about empty words. The brutal Russian invasion has already prompted
the Taiwanese government to take action. N1 (Taiwan looks at extending compulsory
military service beyond 4 months Minister tells parliament that proposals
are under consideration and a plan will be put forward this year. Beijing's pressure
on the island and Russia's war in Ukraine have prompted debate on how to boost defense – SCMP)
But beyond the big headlines: What lessons can Taiwan take from Ukraine?
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(1. ESSENTIAL INFRASTRUCTURE) First of all we have to keep in
mind that, being an island, Taiwan is at high risk of being besieged.
In fact, before launching the military offensive itself, it is very likely that
China would use a combination of siege techniques with hybrid warfare actions,
such as cyber-attacks or sabotage of all kinds. Well, in order to resist the siege, and based on
the experience of cities like Mariupol or Kharkiv, the first thing Taiwan has to do
is to double its oil reserves to allow the army to maintain its operations.
Taiwan's Petroleum Administration Act currently provides for crude oil reserves amounting to 30
days of the previous year's average consumption, or approximately one million barrels per day.
Now, following the Ukrainian experience, military experts are advising Taiwan to at least double
these stocks to 60 days. What’s more, this storage should be located at high elevations and dispersed
throughout the country, both for protection against precision attacks and so that the oil
can continue to be transported, thanks to gravity, even in the event of power supply disruptions.
In addition, to ensure power supply, military experts advise
the construction of multiple electric fuel generators alongside the same tanks.
Also, considering that ports could become priority targets for the invader,
the country must prepare itself to receive over-the-shore deliveries, that is without
having to use port infrastructure. In total, it is estimated that these
actions could cost Taiwan more than $4 billion. But keep one thing clear:
guaranteeing the supply of oil to the military could determine the entire course of the war.
Likewise, experts are also recommending that the country urgently increase its basic food stocks
to a minimum of 120 days of consumption, build water wells throughout the island and implement
an effective satellite internet network. N3 (Starlink internet becomes a lifeline
for Ukrainians In Ukraine,
Starlink's technology has found a place where it can prove itself,
especially being used in ways other than how it was intended. Throughout its invasion,
Russia has consistently attacked Ukrainian communications infrastructure with both
military weapons and cyberattacks. – NBC News) The idea behind this first set of measures
would be to prepare Taiwan to hold out long enough for international aid to
arrive or for China to throw in the towel. But of course, in addition to infrastructure,
this goal needs, above all, to ensure effective military defense.
(2. MILITARY DEFENSE) And here we come to the second lesson
that the Russian invasion is teaching us: it is possible to contain a superior army. And to do so
we must necessarily talk about military equipment and above all about three axes: ballistic defense,
air defense and maritime defense. You see, the war in Ukraine is not
only serving as a learning experience for Taiwan, but also for China itself.
For example, the Asian giant may have realized that to achieve rapid military superiority it
would need to lash out with a brutal amount of fire before carrying out the full-scale invasion.
Well, in order to be able to cope with this more than likely scenario,
Taiwan has to multiply its defense against ballistic missiles and precision weapons.
Currently, the Taiwanese armed forces are already planning to
upgrade their 350 Patriot PAC-3 missiles and purchase 300 additional interceptors.
After witnessing the Ukrainian experience, the effort will probably be even greater.
For example, the purchase of drones and equipping them with electronic warfare
equipment may be encouraged, which would reduce the accuracy of Chinese guided missiles. This
would call for a much greater military and economic effort for the invader.
There are even those on the island who advocate pressuring the United States to
deploy its THADD system in Taiwan. Of course, it seems unlikely that Washington would be willing
to do so. When it was deployed in South Korea, there was a huge diplomatic row with China.
Furthermore, Ukraine has also shown how preventing the invader from gaining air
control is possible and may also be key to slowing down its operations.
In this vein, the Ukrainian defense has been characterized by being organized in layers,
making it difficult or impossible for the invading power to achieve air superiority.
C2 ("Without air control ... China would be incapable of executing almost any military
plan against Taiwan."– Harry Halem and Eyck Freymann, geopolitical analysts)
And so, Taiwan could create a first defensive layer of greater range and altitude with the
Patriots, a middle layer with other anti-aircraft batteries of lower precision and a final layer
with portable anti-aircraft systems, that is, those that can be carried by the soldiers
themselves. These are known as MANPADS. In Ukraine we have all seen the example
of the Stingers donated by NATO and the Strela that they already had and that have been used to
shoot down numerous helicopters, drones and even the occasional Russian fighter plane.
Lastly, we have the case of maritime defense. Of course, since it is an island, this point
becomes very important: to prevent the invasion, it is essential that Taiwan
manages to avoid landings and to avoid China using the coastline to attack land positions.
Although Ukraine lacked a naval force, which Taiwan evidently does have, there is one thing it
could copy: the Ukrainian strategy of sea denial. Sea denial is a military term that consists of
making it impossible for the enemy to use the sea to carry out an assault, while at the same time
not necessarily controlling the waters entirely. Taiwan could look, for example, not only at how
Ukraine has deployed numerous sea mines, but especially at how critical it could be
to store and deploy anti-ship missiles and precision-guided munitions all along the
country's coastline in small depots that are difficult for the invader to detect.
Indeed, this is how Ukraine managed to sink the Moskva with its Neptune
missiles: by going unnoticed. N4 (Warship Moskva was Blind
to Ukrainian Missile Attack, Analysis Shows The crew of RTS Moskva (121) was blind to and
not ready for the Ukrainian missile attack that sank Russia's Black Sea flagship. – USNI News)
N5 (Odessa hit by missiles as Ukraine claims it has sunk second Russian ship – The Guardian)
What’s more, experience in the Ukrainian war has shown that Taiwan's
current inventory could prove to be clearly insufficient. Even given news like this:
N6 (Taiwan to more than double annual missile production capacity amid China tension
Taiwan plans to more than double its yearly missile production capacity
to close to 500 this year. – Reuters) Taiwan has been upgrading its maritime
defense for some time now, for example with the purchase of 400 Harpoon anti-ship missiles
from the United States and 25 radars to operate them. These missiles could be capable of hitting
Chinese ships shortly after they leave port. But the numbers seem clearly insufficient.
Furthermore, much more is needed to really have an effective deterrent force.
(3. NARRATIVE) Thirdly, we can highlight something in which
Ukraine has literally crushed Russia: the war for narrative and communication. This is something in
which Zelensky has proven to be quite talented. If there is one thing Ukraine has done,
it has been to win the support of the vast majority of the West. Yes,
they are the victims of the invasion, but that does not mean it was a piece of cake.
Ukraine has presented itself to the world not only as the victim of an invasion but also
and above all as a country fighting for democracy, openness and European values.
Well, Taiwan is the country with the most civil rights in all of Asia, an indispensable
technological leader and an important Western ally. Strengthening the foreign agenda and,
above all, becoming something like the Mecca of Freedom and civil rights could be key to,
if necessary, counting on the massive and unanimous support of the West.
(4. TERRITORIAL DEFENSE) And finally, the fourth
key has to do with general mobilization. Especially with the so-called territorial
defense forces, which were created from 2015, and are playing a key role in the defense of Ukraine.
We are talking about a kind of well-organized support army that has even been established as
a branch of the Armed Forces. It’s an army that is composed
of reservists and volunteers who receive training and are in charge of tasks such as:
controlling the security of the territory, providing logistical support to the troops,
intelligence, carrying out ambushes and sabotage operations, and even providing
agile support to the professional army's own combat actions with troops where necessary.
The idea is to make the defense much denser and, therefore, to make it much
more difficult for the invader to control the territory. This Ukrainian model has
begun to be copied by Poland and now there are those who think that Taiwan could do the same.
But having reached this point, it’s your turn: [CORTE] Do you think Taiwan
would manage to resist a Chinese invasion at least as successfully as Ukraine is doing?
Leave us your opinion below, in the comments. And if you liked this video, don't forget to
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Once again thank you for watching. All the best and see you next time.