>>.
>> GDP OUT WORSE THAN
EXPECTED SECOND READ FOR AT
FIRST QUARTER GDP COMING IN
BELOW EXAMINATION CONTRACTION
1.5% FIRST QUARTER JOINING ME
BRIGHT NOW 240 TO REACT O
FORMER COUNCIL ECONOMIC
ADVISERS ACTING CHAIRMAN,
TYLER GOODSPEED REACTION TO
CONTRACTION 1 1/2% FIRST
QUARTER GDP.
>> WELL, GOOD TO BE WITH YOU,
MARIA, IT IS NOT ENTIRELY
UNEXPECTED FROM MY POINT OF
VIEW CAUSED WE HAVE VOLATILE
COMPONENTS LIKE THE CHANGE IN
PRIVATE INVENTORIES THAT IS
MOST VOLATILE COMPONENTS OF
THE MOST VOLATILE COMPONENT OF
GDP SO IT IS UNPLEASANT BUT I
THINK IN TERMS OF OF THIS
YEAR, THE INERTIAL BETTER
MEASUREMENT CONSUMER SPENDING
BUSINESS INVESTMENT IN
POSITIVE TERRITORY I EXPECT
THAT TO CONTINUE.
SO.
I THINK WE AVOID A RECESSION,
TECHNICAL RECESSION IN 2022
VERY CONCERNED WHEN WE LOOK
BEYOND 2022 TO 2023
MARIA: TYLER NOT WHAT WE CALL
IT RIGHT WE COULD CALL IT
WHATEVER WE WANT IT IS WAY
PEOPLE FEEL RIGHT NOW GOING TO
THE GROCERY STORES PAYING 20%
HIGHER FOR EGGS THAN A YEAR
AGO PAYING 17% HIGHER FOR
BACON THAN A YEAR AGO, PAYING
33% HIGHER FOR THE PRICE OF
AIRLINE TICKET THAN A YEAR
AGO.
SO, I MEAN, CLEARLY, WAGES
GOING UP, YOU’VE GOT A HANDFUL
COMPANIES RAISING WAGES NOT
DOING MUCH WHEN YOU GO TO THE
GROCERY STORE EATEN UP OF BY
ALL THIS INFLATION.
>> YES, SO MARIA YOU AND I
HAVE BEEN TALKING FOR A LONG
TIME NOW ABOUT DECLINING REAL
WAGES DECLINING INFLATION
ADJUSTED WAGES TALKING ABOUT
THIS OVER A YEAR AGO.
AND THE ONE SILVER LINING HAD
BEEN THAT THAT WAS ON AVERAGE,
WHERE IN AGGREGATE REAL
COMPENSATION OVERALL WAS GOING
UP BECAUSE, OF HIRING, SO MORE
PEOPLE WORKING EVEN THOUGH ON
AVERAGE THEY WERE EARNING LESS
OVERALL COMPENSATION GREATER
THAT CHANGED IN RECENT MONTHS
NOW IN RECENT MONTHS REAL
COMPENSATION OF WORKERS
OVERALL HAS DECLINED, BECAUSE
NOMINAL WAGE GAINS EATEN UP BY
INFLATION I THINK WE HAVE
STRANGE GAP, BETWEEN CONSUMER
SPENDING HAS REMAINED
RESILIENT, AND SWAZ
OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT AT
LEVELS WE SIMPLY HAVEN’T SEEN
SINCE GREAT RECESSION THE ONLY
THING THAT HAS BEEN PROPPING
UP THAT STAINING THAT CONSUMER
RESILIENCE THAT RESILIENCE
CONSUMER SPENDING HAS BEEN THE
BUFFER OF ACCUMULATED SAVINGS,
AS THAT STARTS TO DISSIPATE
PRICE PRESSURES CONTINUE TO
BUILD TOUGH TO SEE THAT BUFFER
REMAINING.
MARIA: BRIAN MOYNIHAN WAS
WITH US A FEW MINUTES AGO
TALKING ABOUT THE FACT PEOPLE
HAVE MORE MONEY IN ACCOUNTS IN
SAVINGS ACCOUNTS, IN THIS LAST
FEW MONTHS THAN EARLIER.
BUT LOOK.
CAN YOU EXPLAIN TO ME, THIS
REACTION THAT WE’RE SEEING IN
MARKETS YESTERDAY WE HEARD
FROM FEDERAL RESERVE, LOOK AT
TREASURY YIELDS RIGHT NOW I
MEAN WE ARE SEEING TREASURY
YIELDS PULL BACK YESTERDAY WE
HEARD FROM FEDERAL RESERVE
YESTERDAY IN MAY MINUTES, AND
FED SAID, PRETTY MUCH THAT IT
WAS UNANIMOUS ON THE FACT THEY
NEED 50 BASIS POINTS HIKE
COMING IN MONTHS OF JUNE,
JULY, POTENTIALLY SEPTEMBER,
THEY ALSO USED THE WORD
RESTRICTIVE SAYING THAT THIS
40-YEAR HIGH INFLATION, MAY
REQUIRE RESTRICTIVE POLICY,
YET WE GOT DOW INDUSTRIALS UP
175 POINTS, YOU’VE GOT 10-YEAR
DOWN 7/10 OF A BASIS POINT.
>> I THINK IT IS BAKED IN THAT
AS YOU NOTED WE ARE GOING TO
GET 50 IN JUNE AND JULY, THE
REAL QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS
IN SEPTEMBER, AND YOU KNOW WE
HAD SOME WHISPERS FROM ARE
BOSTICK MAYBE WE HAVE A PAUSE
WAIT AND SEE, COME AUTUMN
COMMENTS FROM BULLARD LAST WEEK MAYBE CUTS IN 2023, THE
WEEK MAYBE CUTS IN 2023, THE
FED IN 1960S 19 0 PODS TRIED
TO GET A HANDLE ON INFLATION
THE TIME TO GET UNDER CONTROL
UNTIL PAUL VOLCKER EVERY
SINGLE TIME A PAUSE OR U-TURN
MEDIAN TIME FROM START OF
TIGHTENING CYCLE TO PAUSE OR
U-TURN WAS 1/2 MONTHS A
VARIOUS RUNS FOR U-TURN AND
PAUSE BECAUSE UNEMPLOYMENT WAS
TICKING UP, IT WAS BECAUSE
MALTREATMENT WEREN’T FININGS
INNING PARTICULARLY WELL
INFLATION COME DOWN NOT BACK
TO NOMINEE LEVELS IF HISTORY
IS A GUIDE I THINK MARKETS ARE
PROBABLY LOOKING AT THE MUSIC
THINKING MAYBE A PAUSE U-TURN
LATER THIS YEAR.
>> THAT IS WHAT STEPHANIE
POMBOY HAS BEEN STAYING.
DAGEN: I WAS A GOING TO
ANSWER YOUR QUESTION THAT
TREASURY MARKET IS FOCUSED ON
AN IMPENDING RECESSION.
WHILE THE -- EQUITY INVESTORS
ARE STILL FLUSH WITH CASH
BECAUSE AGAIN, THEED FED
HASN’T REALLY STARTED TO
DESTROY MONEY YET WITH THE
BALANCE SHEET REDUCTION CAN WE
EXPECT ANYTHING OUT OF BIDEN
ADMINISTRATION THAT WILL HELP
THE COUNTRY IN TERMS OF
GETTING US BACK ON TRACK, AND
EVEN I MENTIONED EARLIER EVEN
DEREGULATION OR ALLEVIATING
THE REGULATIONS THAT HAVE BEEN
PUT IN PLACE?
>> I AM NOT HOLDING MY BRAETH
THERE ARE THINGS THEY COULD DO
THEY COULD AND AN ON DOMESTIC
ENERGY PRODUCTION STILL A TON
THEY COULD DO, IN TERMS OF
FACING DOMESTIC ENERGY
PRODUCTION, HISTORICALLY,
THERE WAS A VERY, VERY TIGHT
CORRELATION BETWEEN IF PRICE
OF WEST TEZ INTERMEDIARY CRUDE
THAT BROKE DOWN 2021 WHY WOULD
YOU BE DRILLING OR INSTALLING
NEW DOMESTIC ENERGY PRODUCTION
CAPACITY IN THE UNITED STATES
GIVEN THAT REGULATORY BURDEN?
I WOULD BE SIGNALING,
CERTAINTY SIGNALING TO MARKETS
WE WILL EXTEND SOME OF THE
BUSINESS TAX PROVISIONS OF THE
2017 TAX LAW, I WOULD BE
SIGNALING TO HOUSEHOLDS THAT
WE WILL MAKE SOME OF THOSE
MARGINAL PERSONAL REDUCTIONS
IN 2017 PERMANENT INCENTIVE
HIGHER LABOR FORCE
PARTICIPATION ALL THINGS
ADMINISTRATION COULD DO TODAY.
BUT, AS I SAID I AM NOT
HOLDING MY BREATH THAT WE’RE
GOING TO SEE ANY OF THOSE
ACTIONS.
MARIA: DEFINITELY DO NOT HOLD
YOUR BREATH ON THAT ONE TYLER
THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR BEING
HERE, ON HEELS OF THE
GDP, WORSE THAN EXPECTED YET
MARKETS THIS MORNING AT HIGHS
OF THE MORNING DOW INDUSTRIALS
RIGHT NOW UP 210 POINTS, WE
WILL SEE YOU SOON WE ARE GOING
TO CONTINUE ZEROING IN ON
RETAIL WHEN WE SPEAK WITH CEO
OF FAT BRANDS SPOOPG UP A
NESTLÉ FRANCHISE CEO WILL JOIN
ME ON ALL HIS ACQUISITIONS TO
TALK ABOUT THE LATEST
ACQUISITION WHAT HE IS
EXPECTING IN HAVE TERMS OF
GROWTH THE CEO OF FAT BRANDS
NEXT IN THIS CONCLUSIVE YOU
ARE WATCHING "MORNINGS WITH
MARIA" LIVE ON FOX BUSINESS. .
♪ RingCentral ♪
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♪Music
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When it comes to making plans, you are the best.
Those nine months were also 273 days of planning.
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It was out of this world.
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