- [Instructor] We're now going to explore hypothesis testing
where we're thinking about the difference
between proportions of two different populations.
So here it says, here are the results from a recent poll
that involved sampling voters from each
of two neighboring districts, District A and District B,
and folks were asked whether they supported
a new law or not, and from each district,
we took a sample of 100 voters.
And then we were able to calculate the proportion
from that sample that supported the law.
And then here we have the combined data,
including the combined proportion.
And we're asked, does this suggest
a significant difference between the two districts.
And so this is asking for a hypothesis test,
and the way we would do that is
we would set up our null hypothesis,
and remember our null hypothesis is the one
that we would assume that there is no difference.
So we would assume that the true proportion of folks
in District A that support the new law is equal
to the proportion in District B that support the law.
Or another way to think about it is that
the difference would be equal to zero.
And our alternative hypothesis
is that the absolute difference between
the proportions is not equal to zero.
And if we were doing an all out hypothesis test,
we would set a significance level,
which we usually denote with an alpha.
Often times it might be a 10% significance level
or a 5% significance level.
Let's say we set it at a 5% significance level.
And what we would do is, we would say,
"All right, let's assume that the null hypothesis is true,
"and assuming the null hypothesis is true,
"what is the probability of getting a difference between our
"sample proportions this extreme or more?
"And if that probability is less than our significance
"level, then we reject the null hypothesis,
"which would suggest the alternative."
Now before we go deeper into our inference,
we want to test our conditions for inference,
and we've seen these many times before.
You have the Random condition,
where you would need to feel good that both
of these samples are truly random.
You would have your Normal condition,
which is that you would have at least 10 successes
and failures in each of these samples,
and we see that we do indeed have at least 10
successes and at least 10 failures in each of those samples.
And then you have your Independence condition,
and the Independence condition,
you're either sampling with replacement
or you need to feel good that each of these sample sizes
are no more than 10% of the entire population,
and so I guess we will assume that there's
at least 1,000 folks in District A
and at least 1,000 folks in District B
and that will allow us to meet the Independence condition.
And so with that out of the way,
let's assume the null hypothesis,
and let's just start thinking about the sampling
distribution of the difference between
the sample proportions assuming that null hypothesis.
So the first thing I wanna think about is
what is going to be the standard deviation
of the difference in the sampling distributions.
Well, we have seen in a previous video
when we talked about differences of proportions.
We can think about the variance,
so the variance of the sampling distribution.
There's a lot of notation here.
So the variance, this is going to be equal to
the variance of the sampling distribution
of the sample proportion from District A
plus the variance
of the sampling distribution
of the sample proportion from District B.
Now in general, you can figure out the variance
of the sampling distribution of a sample
proportion with the following formula.
We've seen this before.
The variance of the sampling distribution
of the sample proportion is going to be equal to our
true proportion times one minus our true proportion,
all of that over your sample size.
Now in either situation, we don't know
the true proportions for District A or District B.
That's why we are in this, that's why we're even
doing this hypothesis test to begin with.
But we can try to estimate it.
Remember, we're assuming that the true proportions are equal
even though we might not know what they are.
And what is going to be our best estimate
of that true proportion if we assume that District A
and District B have no difference in terms
of the number of people who support the new law?
Well the best estimate would actually be
the combined sample, the combined sample
proportion right over here.
And so to estimate these values,
we use this combined sample proportion
in the place of P over here.
So we could say that this is going to be
our combined sample proportion
times one minus our combined sample proportion,
all of that over our sample size.
And since we're assuming that there's no difference
between District A and District B,
this would also apply to that right over there.
So let me rewrite this again,
the standard deviation of the sampling distribution
of the difference of the sample proportions
from District A and District B is going to be roughly.
Remember we weren't able to calculate it exactly,
but we're using this combined
proportion as our best estimate.
Let me do a big square root right over here, a big radical.
And so underneath that, we are going to have our estimate
of this, which is 0.55
times one minus 0.55, so 0.45,
over 100
plus our estimate of this,
which is
0.55.
It's the same thing again.
Times 0.45, and remember that's because we're assuming
the null hypothesis is true.
All of that over this sample size.
All of that over 100.
And now we can get our calculator out
to actually calculate it.
And so we get the square root of
0.55 times 0.45 divided by 100.
Now I could add that whole thing again
or I could just multiply by two.
So times two is equal to
approximately 0.07.
So this is going to be
approximately equal to 0.07,
and now using this, we can calculate a z-score,
and then we could think about, what's the probability
of getting a z-score that extreme or more.
And so our z-score, or our z-value,
would be equal to the difference that we got.
P hat sub A, minus P hat sub B,
all of that over our estimate of
the standard deviation of the sampling distribution
of the difference between the sample proportions,
so all of that over 0.07.
Now this up here in yellow, 0.58 minus 0.52,
this is going to be equal to 0.06
over 0.07.
0.07.
We can get our calculator out for this again,
and so we have
0.06 divided by 0.07
is going to be, it's approximately 0.86,
so this is approximately 0.86.
Now what's the probability of getting
something this extreme or more extreme?
Let me just make sure we can visualize it properly.
So if this is our sampling distribution
of the difference between our sample proportions,
and we're assuming the null hypothesis,
so the mean of our sampling distribution
is going to be zero, is going to be zero right there,
we just got a result that is
less than a standard deviation above the mean.
So we just got a result.
So this is one standard deviation,
two standard deviations above the mean.
One standard deviation below the mean.
Two standard deviations below the mean.
We just got a result that is,
that puts us right there,
and if we asked ourselves, what's the probability
of getting result at least that extreme,
we would say, okay, it would be, what's the probability
of getting a result all of this area right over here,
and would also be what's this area
on the other side of the mean.
And we know that this is over 30%
because even if you just exclude one standard deviation
above and below the mean, if you say anything more extreme
than that, so if you put this area and this area,
you're looking at roughly 31 or 32%.
So the probability of getting something
at least this extreme is going to be over 30%,
and so it's definitely going to be higher
than our significance level.
It's actually completely reasonable
to get a difference this extreme
if we assume the null hypothesis is true.
In future videos, we can go even deeper,
where we can actually just look this up
on a z-table to calculate these areas more precisely,
and we can compare them to the significance level,
but here it's not even close.
We're nowhere close to being able to
reject the null hypothesis.
So to answer the question, does this suggest
a significant difference between the two districts?
No, no it doesn't.