WE SAW IRMA MAKE A LAST-MINUTE
SHIFT.
IT GOES TO SHOW HOW HARD IT IS
TO PROTECT THESE.
YES AND UP UNTIL THE POINT
THAT IT MAKES LANDFALL
SOMEWHERE IN THE CAROLINAS.
THIS THURSDAY NIGHT.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH.
BECAUSE YOU NEVER KNOW UNTIL
YOU KNOW WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS.
OR WITH SNOW.
OR WITH ANY WEATHER EVENT.
THE BIG PICTURE STORY TONIGHT
IS THAT WE CAN STILL POSSIBLY
HAVE A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE
ON OUR COAST EITHER SOUTH
CAROLINA OR NORTH CAROLINA
SPOKE COAST.
THIS THURSDAY.
BUT FOR US MAJOR FLOODING WILL
BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE.
THE CHANGES TONIGHT THE WIND
HAS INCREASED UP TO 90 MILES
PER HOUR.
WITH FLORENCE.
AND THE TRACK SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
TO THE NORTH.
I'M GOING TO SHOW YOU THAT
SHIFT COMING UP IN A SECOND.
IT IS STILL A SLOW MOVER FOR
US.
THE FORECAST WILL BE PRETTY
TYPICAL.
MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY.
BUT THE RAIN.
AND WIND FROM THAT SYSTEM WILL
BE HERE THURSDAY AND PROBABLY
LAST UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
NOW SPEAKING OF RAIN.
WE ACTUALLY HAD A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DOWN IN MOORE
COUNTY EARLIER.
AND REMEMBER WE GOT A BOUNDARY
TAPED OVER OUR AREA.
AND THAT IS HELPING TO INITIATE
SOME OF THIS RAIN EVEN THOUGH
IT IS 11:00 AT NIGHT.
SO YOU MAY HAVE SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOUR MAYBE SOME THUNDER BUT
WE DO EXPECT DRY WEATHER BY
MORNING.
THERE COULD BE SOME FOG.
CHECK IN TOMORROW MORNING
STARTING AT 430 AND A LOT OF US
WILL BE IN THE 60s.
ONE BIG STORY WE ARE MISSING
TODAY IS IT WAS NOT IN THE 90s.
FIRST TIME IN ALMOST 2 WEEKS
THAT HAS HAPPENED.
THEN WE WILL HAVE A LOT OF
CLOUDS TOMORROW.
IT SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80s
WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS.
AND WE WILL HAVE A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
SO THERE IS THAT BOUNDARY.
I MINUTE KEPT SOME OF US IN THE
60s TODAY.
WHILE OTHERS SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WERE IN THE 90s.
60s AND 90s ALL IN OUR AREA.
A LITTLE STRANGE.
THAT IS WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU
HAVE A BOUNDARY RIGHT OVER US.
NOW THAT BOUNDARY LOOKS OUT OF
HERE TOMORROW.
AND WILL BRING US ANOTHER
CHANCE OF RAIN.
BUT NOT IN THE MORNING.
IN THE MORNING TIME WILL HAVE
SOME CLOUDS, DRY WEATHER.
AND SOME FOG.
BY LUNCHTIME STILL MOSTLY DRY.
AND THEN JUST A 30 % CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS HERE AT 3:00.
HERE WE ARE AT 6:00.
AND IN MOST OF THAT RAIN GOES
AWAY AS WE HEAD INTO THE
EVENING.
IT WILL BE THE SAME DEAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AND THEN THURSDAY IS WHEN WE
EXPECT THINGS TO START TO
CHANGE HERE.
AS THIS HURRICANE APPROACH IS
OUR AREA.
IT IS NOW 1300 AND CHANGE FROM
WELLINGTON NORTH CAROLINA.
KEEP AN EYE ON THAT NUMBER IT
WILL CONTINUE TO GO DOWN.
I'LL KEEP WILMINGTON AS KIND OF
OUR GROUND ZERO POINT SO WE CAN
KIND OF GAUGE HOW CLOSE THIS IS
GETTING TO US.
THE WIND IS UP TO 90 MILES PER
HOUR.
BUT IT IS STILL MOVING REALLY
REALLY SLOW.
THE HURRICANE HUNTERS ARE OUT
THERE EARLIER TODAY.
ACTUALLY WEAVING FROM
INVESTIGATING THE AREA AROUND
IT.
BUT WE WILL FEED ALL THAT DATA
INTO THE COMPUTER MODELS.
AND THEN HEAD BACK TO THE TAMPA
AREA AT MacDILL AIR FORCE BASE
AND THEY WILL FEED INTO THESE
COMPUTER MODELS WHICH RUNS
TONIGHT AND STARTING TO CLUSTER
A LITTLE MORE ON NORTH CAROLINA
AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
MEMBER HOW SPREAD OUT THEY WERE.
AS THEY START TO NARROW.
THAT IS TELLING US A STORY.
THAT THERE IS MORE CERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST.
AND THAT IS HOW WE WIND UP WITH
THIS.
THE OFFICIAL CHECK FROM THE
HURRICANE CENTER AND THE
AMAZING THING IS THIS IS GOING
TO EXPLODE AGAIN INTO A MAJOR
HURRICANE LIKELY BY TOMORROW.
BECOMING A CATEGORY FOR THROUGH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AS IT MOVES OVER SOME
INCREDIBLY WARM WATER.
AND THEN AS A CATEGORY FOUR ON
THE NORTH OR SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTLINE THURSDAY NIGHT.
AND THEN A ROADBLOCK GOES UP.
FISTING SLOWS DOWN SO
INCREDIBLY MUCH.
WE ARE GOING TO HAVE BIG
PROBLEMS WITH FLOODING.
I WILL PUT THE CENTERLINE IN.
THE RED ONE.
AND THEN I WILL DROP THE WHITE
LINE IN.
THAT IS FROM 5:00 TONIGHT.
AND NOTICE HOW IT NUDGED EVER
SO SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH.
NOT ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANYTHING
WITHOUT FORECAST.
BUT HERE'S WHAT I MEAN.
FROM HERE TO HERE.
THURSDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT IT IS
A LITTLE BIT MORE THAN 100
MILES.
THAT MEANS IN 24 HOURS IT WILL
BE MOVING POSSIBLY LESS THAN
FIVE MILES PER HOUR.
AND THERE IS A OLD TOPICAL RULE
OF THUMB FOR FORECASTING WHERE
YOU TAKE 100 DIVIDED BY THE
SPEED OF THE SYSTEM TO FIGURE
OUT HOW MUCH RAIN YOU WILL GET.
AND IF IT IS GOING FIVE OR SIX
MILES PER HOUR.
THAT COULD BE 17 MAYBE UP TO 20
INCHES OF RAIN.
THAT IS A MAJOR FLOODING EVENT
FOR SOME HERE IN NORTH
CAROLINA.
THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND
COULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATER
IN THE DAY THURSDAY.
SO HERE'S WHAT WE COULD EXPECT.
A THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND EVENT.
BECAUSE IT WILL BE SO SLOW-
MOVING.
HEAVY RAIN FLOODING AND
TORNADOES THE EXACT AMOUNT OF
RAIN IS STILL UNKNOWN.
BUT THAT WIND COULD KNOCK DOWN
TREES.
AND THEREFORE KNOCK OUT SOME
POWER MAGGIE.
SO THERE'S A LOT HEADED OUR WAY.
NONE OF IT IS WRITTEN IN STONE
YET.
BUT IT IS ALL VERY POSSIBLE AND
IT IS ALSO THE NEED TO PREPARE
FOR.
WE HAVE THREE DAYS TO DO IT.