On January 5th of 2018, a volcano in Papua New Guinea unexpectedly erupted.
This eruption was quite significant, as the island it originated on, called Kadovar, was
thought to be an extinct volcano.
It had not produced an eruption in recorded history, which is why when lava started to
be ejected from its edifice it was quite a surprise.
Since then, Kadovar has been continuously erupting, producing pyroclastic flows, large
explosions, and tall ash columns.
Alongside the adjacent Langila and Manam volcanoes, it has become a regional headache for airplane
pilots, frequently causing flights to be either cancelled or rerouted.
However, there is an even greater danger at Kadovar which so far has been largely overlooked.
The overall edifice of the island has continued to grow steeper and steeper, surpassing a
slope of 45 degrees as a lava dome grows on its southern edifice.
Thus, its overall edifice is over steepened and has become structurally unstable.
The fear is that a section of this edifice will soon collapse, generating a destructive
tsunami effecting several distant communities.
The Kadovar volcano encompasses the entirety of the small island of Kadovar, and can be
found in north central Papua New Guinea.
Since the Kadovar volcano was long thought to be extinct, its geologic history is not
well known.
With this being said, the following statements are best classified as an educated guess.
The Kadovar volcano began forming around 30,000 years ago, when a volume of andesitic lava
erupted via a fissure on the ocean floor.
This occurred at a depth of around 1,080 meters or 3,543 feet, and soon began building a large
central volcanic cone.
After more than 20,000 years of submarine eruptions, this volcano breached the ocean
surface, erupting in a highly explosive manner.
Its central peak grew to a height of 365 meters or 1198 feet, causing pressure to build on
its southern flank.
Eventually, the pressure became too great, and the entire southern flank of Kadovar collapsed,
leaving behind a horseshoe shaped caldera.
The collapse generated a large tsunami, which was significant enough to effect areas up
to 1,000 kilometers distant.
After this collapse, the volcano became dormant, during which hundreds of residents settled
on the island.
Then, in 1976, fumaroles on the island unexpectedly activated, and over time these became hotter
and hotter due to the intrusion of a body of shallow magma.
This eventually culminated in the 2018 eruption, which began building a large gray andesite
lava dome out of the landslide scar of the overall island.
On February 9th, 2018, parts of the large lava dome collapsed, generating a small tsunami
which hit the adjacent Blupblup and Bam islands.
Luckily, no one was harmed, as the overall collapse was quite small.
Since then, the lava dome has continued to grow in size, far surpassing its size before
February 2018.
Thus, it may only be a matter of time before it collapses, potentially taking with it a
large section of the southern island.
According to Australian researcher Chris Firth, the island is now a prime candidate for a
volcanic collapse caused tsunami.
The next collapse will either occur to the south or to the east, as these directions
represent weak points of the overall island.
There are strong similarities between Kadovar and two other volcanoes which created historical
destructive tsunamis.
A volcano called Oshima Oshima in Japan was witnessed to have a similar characteristic
before it collapsed in 1741, sending a tsunami all the way to the Korean peninsula.
Closer to Kadovar, in 1888 a 4 cubic kilometer section of the Ritter island volcano collapsed
into the ocean, generating a 20 meter or 66 foot high tsunami which was directed to the
north.
Given the shape of Kadovar, a future collapse is likely to have a smaller volume of up to
only 1.5 cubic kilometers, but the brunt of the tsunami would be directed to the south
towards a heavily populated coastline.
I have outlined a worst case scenario model which gives estimated tsunami run-up heights
were such a large collapse to occur.
With this being said, a tsunami is not a certainty.
The island could collapse decades from now, or it might not collapse at all.
The danger lies in the lack of available information on this volcano, and its striking similarity
to other deadly volcanoes.
Thanks for watching.
If you would like to request a specific topic please leave a comment below.
Additionally, I would like to thank my new patron Jeff G for supporting this channel!