Over recent months, international negotiators have been trying to reach
a new nuclear agreement with Iran.
With the United States warning that there may be just weeks left to strike a deal,
and Israel suggesting that it's leaving all options open should talks fail,
fears are again growing of a major crisis on the horizon.
So, what is the issue all about and why is it proving so hard to reach an agreement?
Hello and welcome. If you're new to the channel, my name is James Ker-Lindsay and here I take an
informed look at international relations, conflict and the origins of countries.
For over 70 years, the spread of nuclear weapons has been
one of the most serious challenges facing the international community.
Developed by the United States during the Second World War,
they were later acquired by the other four permanent members of
the UN Security Council - Russia, Britain, France and the People's Republic of China.
However, over the course of the last half century,
efforts have been made to limit their further spread.
Through a number of agreements - most notably the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty,
which came into force in 1970 - the development,
manufacture, acquisition and testing of nuclear weapons has been outlawed.
But while most of the world has stuck to these agreements
and disavowed nuclear weapons - and some countries, including South Africa and Ukraine
have given them up - a few countries have nevertheless acquired the bomb.
These include three overt nuclear states - India, Pakistan and North Korea - and Israel,
which has consistently refused to comment on its status but is widely understood to have them.
Meanwhile, fears remain that some other states are trying to acquire them.
The most important of these is Iran.
Iran sits at the far eastern end of the Middle East.
To its north lies Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan.
To its east is Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The Persian Gulf lies along its southern coast; putting it near Kuwait,
Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Oman.
And to its west it shares a border with Iraq and Turkey.
At 1.65 million square kilometres, or 640 000 square miles, it's the 17th largest
of the 193 members of the United Nations.
Its population currently stands at around 85 million.
While the country is almost wholly Muslim, approximately
95 per cent follow the Shia branch of the faith.
This contrasts with the Sunni Islam practiced in most neighbouring states.
Once known as Persia, Iran has a long and truly fascinating history.
Unlike many of its neighbours, it was never directly colonised.
Instead, it existed as an independent kingdom.
As a result, it became one of the 51 original members of the United
Nations when the organisation was set up in 1945.
With the onset of the Cold War, the Shah, or Emperor, of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi,
aligned the country to the west, becoming a close ally of the United States and Britain.
But he's sat atop a corrupt and brutal regime.
While his lavish lifestyle caused widespread resentment, especially amongst the religious and
those on the political left, the country's feared secret police cracked down hard on any descent.
Despite this, by the mid-1970s opposition to the regime was gaining strength.
One of the key figures was an exiled cleric, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini,
who became the rallying point for many dissidents.
Meanwhile, internal pressure was also increasing.
This came to a head in 1978 with massive strikes and protests.
As the regime crumbled, the Shah led the country at the start of 1979
and Khomeini flew in to become the Supreme Leader of the new Islamic Republic of Iran.
The Iranian Revolution would have huge domestic and international consequences.
Internally, a strict form of theocratic islamic rule was now introduced and stringently enforced.
Externally, Iran now turned its back on the west, casting United States
as the country's preeminent enemy - the "Great Satan" as it was famously called.
This came to a head with the US embassy hostage crisis just months after the revolution.
This would see over 50 US diplomats and citizens held captive by militant students for 444 days.
The resulting severing of diplomatic relations between
w=Washington and Tehran continues to this day.
Meanwhile, the overthrow of the Shah would also be felt in other ways.
One of the most significant effects was on relations with Israel.
After Turkey, Iran had been the second muslim majority country to accept the jewish state
and in the years that followed the two countries cooperated across a range of fields,
including defence and intelligence.
However, this all changed after the revolution.
The new regime not only broke off relations with Israel, but it also began to state its opposition
to the country's very existence and openly supported groups committed to its destruction.
More broadly, Iran became a pariah on the international stage.
Aside from its difficult relations with the West and Israel,
many muslim countries also viewed it as a major threat to their interests.
As well as fears over the export of its revolution, there was widespread
concern about its support for militant groups, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon
and Hamas in the occupied Palestinian territories, and its links to terrorism.
And while the regime in Tehran changed and evolved over the decades that followed - sometimes under
more moderate leadership, often under hardline factions - it continued to be
viewed as a fundamental threat to international peace and security.
All this would come to a head in 2002 when it was revealed that Iran had been
pursuing a secret nuclear program and had even built facilities to enrich uranium,
a key element for a nuclear weapon.
While efforts to persuade Tehran to come clean about its activities
and stop enrichment appeared to meet with some initial success,
in the period that followed the country failed to cooperate with the International
Atomic Energy Agency, the main body vested with overseeing the peaceful use of nuclear science.
As a result, in 2006 the UN Security Council passed a resolution calling on Iran to immediately
suspend its enrichment activities, including research and development, and to cooperate
with the IAEA to prove the exclusively peaceful nature of its nuclear programme.
Despite this, the Iranian government refused to cooperate fully and just months later,
in an important signal of international unity, the Council imposed sanctions.
But these would have little effect and fears grew that Iran's nuclear programme
could lead to wider conflict and instability if left unchecked.
First of all, there were worries that Israel could launch a military strike
against Iranian facilities; as it had done against Iraq in 1981 and Syria in 2007.
This would lead to a serious escalation of tensions between what were now arch foes.
Additionally, concerns grew that the nuclear-armed Iran would see other countries acquire their own
nuclear weapons, thus fundamentally undermining international nonproliferation efforts.
As a result, the Security Council would impose further sanctions in the years that followed.
Eventually, the pressure began to bite.
Against the backdrop of increasing economic hardship,
Tehran agreed to talks and in late 2013 a formal negotiation process began
held under the so-called P5+1 format involving all five permanent members of the UN Security
Council as well as Germany and building on long-standing EU efforts to engage with Iran.
On the 14 July 2015, the sides reached a landmark agreement,
the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPOA.
At the heart of the agreement lay a commitment by Iran that under
no circumstances would it ever seek, develop or acquire any nuclear weapons.
In return for this, it was agreed that it would be allowed to develop a peaceful nuclear program.
To this end, the agreement, which was more than 100 pages long, laid out exactly what equipment
and technology Iran would be allowed to possess and set very clear limits on uranium enrichment.
It also made sure that all this would be overseen by stringent IAEA monitoring.
Crucially, sanctions against the country would also be progressively lifted.
The deal, which was endorsed by the UN Security Council, was widely hailed as a breakthrough.
Warmly welcoming the plan,
US President Obama called it the strongest non-proliferation agreement ever negotiated.
The JCPOA quickly came to be viewed as a success.
In early 2016, Iran was judged to be meeting its commitments and sanctions began to be lifted.
However, serious problems emerged later that year when Donald Trump was elected US president.
Voicing his deep opposition to the agreement, arguing that Iran was still allowed to carry
out some enrichment and that crucial parts of the deal weren't permanent, in May 2018
he unilaterally withdrew the United States from a deal that he called "defective to its core".
Additionally, the United States also imposed new sanctions on Iran.
While the other countries involved all expressed their regret at the US move,
and the agreement formally remained in place, Washington's decision to abandon the JCPOA
had a huge impact as Tehran began to press ahead with renewed research and enrichment,
once again raising the prospect of a military strike by Israel or the United States.
Indeed, there were fears that trump would use the last weeks in office to launch an attack on Iran.
The election of President Joe Biden, in late 2020,
raised hopes that a new agreement could be reached.
Having campaigned on a platform
of rejoining the JCPOA, expectations were high - but ultimately short-lived.
While talks got underway in April 2021,
just months later Iran elected a new hardline president.
This had a noticeable effect on the talks.
Since they resumed, in late 2021, progress has been slow and Iranian demands have become tougher.
Having been burned once,
Tehran has called for guarantees that the United States will not walk out again.
However, others see this as an Iranian attempt to buy time as it continues its enrichment program.
Indeed, reports now suggest that it has massively increased its stockpile
of weapons-grade uranium and that any new deal may soon be redundant.
To this end, by 2022 the talks had reached a critical point.
With France warning that the pace of negotiations may simply be too slow
for an agreement, the United States has now made it clear that time is of the essence.
The US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, has warned that Iran may
be just weeks away from being able to make nuclear weapons at short notice.
This in turn has led to comments from the Israeli Government that it will keep all options open.
For almost 70 years, the international community
has been trying to limit the spread of nuclear weapons.
One of the most important current efforts to prevent proliferation has been focused on Iran.
Revelations at the turn of the millennium that it was actively pursuing nuclear weapons
saw the start of efforts to restrict its capabilities.
Eventually, after the imposition of harsh sanctions,
this led to a breakthrough agreement - the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
However, the US decision to walk away from the deal in 2018
has seen Iran again move ever closer to obtaining a nuclear bomb.
Indeed, some suggest that it may now just be months away from its goal.
This of course raises real worries about some form of military action by Israel
and maybe even the United States.
But, of course, this isn't just about Iran.
It has far wider implications.
If Iran does become a fully-fledged nuclear power,
there are very real fears that others in the Middle East will follow suit.
And if they do, the concern is that still more countries will go down the same road.
While reaching a deal with Iran is important in its own right, and for the Middle East,
it extends far further than this.
A lot is therefore riding on a new agreement.
The question is whether we may be too late now to reach such a deal.
I hope you found that useful. If so, here are some more videos that you might find interesting.
Thanks so much for watching and see you in the next video.