time now for an in-depth look at the market news this afternoon and for that i'm joined on the line
by dr yang junsuk professor of economics at the catholic university of korea professor yang good
afternoon thanks for making time today happy to be here well stocks on wall street last friday july
1st started this second half of the year with a gain despite all the concerns about the economy
but for the week all three main indices were down it seems investors were looking for some
bargains last friday what's the story in the global markets as we start a new week
okay well friday was a surprisingly upbeat day for the stock market the dow and snp rose by 1.1
percent nasdaq rose by 0.9 but as you stated it was a negative uh week overall and if you look
at the first half of the year this was the worst uh first half of the year since 1970 uh when snp
for example fell by 21 year-to-date dao is down 15 smp is down by 20.25 nasdaq is down by 29.7
uh though some people do see hope uh smt uh during 1970 when they had the worst uh first half of the
year in the second half it did rise by 26.5 so that in 1970 even though they had a very bad
uh first half of the year they did recover however sadly i don't see that happening
this year uh if the main cause of the decline inflation does not seem to have hit its peak
and the fed is likely to continue its plans to raise interest rate at a quick pace the latest
evidence for that is the personal consumption expenditure price index figures for may which
is what fed likes to look at uh the uh uh ex the price index uh inflation over 12 months was 6.3
that's the same as april but if you just look at the month of may one month
uh it was 0.6 and it was much higher than where it was in april which was only 0.2
we did expect something like this from the consumer price index but it has been confirmed
so there does not seem to be any sign that inflation is abating core pce inflation for
12 months was 4.7 and for one month it was 0.3 at the same as april now even though inflation
is high consumption also seems to be high as well personal consumption expenditure was
up 0.2 percent in may uh though in real purchasing power terms it did fall by 0.4 percent uh income
in nominal terms in monetary terms it rose by 0.5 percent but in real terms it fell by 0.1
so perhaps the fed moved to raise interest rates is starting to have some effect but we'll have
to see whether it actually uh sticks or not in europe they had worst quarters since the onset of
the pandemic eurozone inflation for june was 8.6 over the last 12 months inflation is accelerating
there and now perhaps it's higher than the us uh because they're much closer to russia and ukraine
and they've been hit directly by the uh fallen exports and sanctions against uh
against russia now in asia there are some signs that china is beginning to recover purchasing
managers index shows orders are starting to revive but japan's survey of manufacturers showed that
japanese firms are still pessimistic the results for today are mixed nikkei and shanghai is up
hung-seng is down well korean stocks started out higher today perhaps with a boost from the u.s
but we're quickly into negative territory some of the bigger names were a mix samsung and sk
heineck's gaining back a little ground among the worst hit were construction shares tell us
about the domestic market okay well today korea really did not share in the u.s market uprise
it's mostly because of high inflation and leaking one but also another new factor here is the trade
deficit uh for the first half of the year uh korea scored a 10.3 billion dollar deficit uh and in
just june alone it had 2.5 billion dollar deficit the value of exports and imports both rose in fact
in terms of the month of june the exports korea had the best month ever but obviously imports rose
much faster than exports so we had a trade deficit but what's perhaps more even more interesting
is that if you look at the volume of exports and imports it actually fell volume of exports fell by
6.1 percent volume of imports fell by 5.8 percent that may mean that the economy is a korean economy
is slowing down it may mean that the signs of a trade engine for korea is faltering korea did have
a negative growth of volume in april as well but it rose in may but now it's falling again in june
so we'll have to see whether korea's engine of growth which had been trade is running out of
steam today cosby was down 0.22 percent it ended today at 2300 uh point three one institutions
bought individuals and foreign stack was down 0.92 it ended today at 722.80 individual spot
institutions and foreigners sold well this week professor will be getting data on the economy
from the bank of korea related to expenditures by households companies and the government
also inflation data and the korea development institute with its july report what's on your
radar in the week ahead okay well the big one is as you mentioned the june consumer price index and
inflation figures will it be higher than maize 5.4 will it pass 6 that's the big question right now
another fairly big question is from the kdi projection in the last projection kdi projected
that this year's growth would be 2.8 percent that was similar to imf and government projections but
will it change will it fall now for international statistics uh we have an opec meeting on tuesday
uh we were hoping that uh woopeck will raise supplies uh but it doesn't seem likely there
are some questions on whether opec is holding supply because it wants to maintain high prices or
whether because opec has reached its uh output capacity but we'll have to see what the opec does
on wednesday uh us fed is releasing their fomc minute and then they're also releasing u.s jolt
jolt report job openings and labor turnovers so we can see how strong the u.s economy is and
related to that on friday u.s is releasing their unemployment numbers uh we want the numbers to
be healthy but not as high as uh previous months because we want the u.s economy to slow down if
we want the global inflation to slow down right well professor we'll check in with you again on
all of that later in the week thanks so much for coming on today appreciate your insights thank you