There has been talk ongoing for years regarding the future of the narrowbody market. While
predicted uptick in passenger traffic had driven a desire for a new midsize airplane,
there is actually a strong need for a clean sheet narrowbody workhorse. The current situation
and its impact on future travel demand has only served to exacerbate that need.
During the virtual Farnborough Airshow last month, we heard from some of the world’s
biggest aviation heavyweights about their predictions for future aircraft design. Steve
Udvar–Házy, current , was joined by Sir Tim Clark, President of
Emirates, in a discussion facilitated by FlightGlobal and Embraer. Here’s why they think we desperately
need a new small airplane.
In the decades of aircraft design gone by, there has been a penchant for designing derivatives
rather than creating new. The 747 went through multiple iterations, as has the Airbus A320
family of jets. However, one type stands out as being the most re-iterated aircraft on
the planet – the Boeing 737. Certified in 1967, the 737 came around shortly
after the dawn of the jet age. More than 50 years later, and we’re still flying in something
that is largely the same as it was. More than a dozen variations have been produced, from
the original -100 all the way up to the MAX. And it goes back even further than that, with
the fuselage and a lot of the basic systems also in place on the older Boeing 707. The
737 we know today evolved from that airplane, and believes that therein lies the problem.
“The certification standards design standards and technology levels in the mid 60s were
entirely different than what we are facing today and in the future … If that aircraft
was designed today in its current form, it would probably not meet all the latest certification
standards. “I’m not saying it wouldn’t be safe
or wouldn’t be appropriate, but today’s standards versus the standards of the 60s
are totally different.” -Steve Udvar–Házy Clark agreed that it’s been all too long
since we had a true clean sheet design for the narrowbody market. Although the Airbus
A320 family isn’t as historic as the 737, its design and certification took place in
the 80s, so it’s not exactly new either. Clark commented,
“It’s indicative of reluctance by the manufacturers … to branch out into completely
new aircraft types.” He went on to explain why the single aisle
needs a revamp, and how the rise of low-cost carriers has spurred a need for something
completely new: “I believe that the single aisle certainly
needs a lot of attention. Because, as we saw the evolution and growth of low costs and
the peculiar requirements of low cost in single aisle, we tried to fix up one particular type
to meet all requirements for everybody. I think that in the future, it’s time that
we looked at the way we go about serving the needs of this low cost operation. Therein
lies a need to redesign and rethink what single aisle is going to be.”
Clark went on to suggest that, rather than aircraft manufacturers designing new planes
in isolation, they should be working alongside low-cost carriers to uncover what it is they
actually want. He said, “[Manufacturers should] start looking at
what people want, not what they’re told to make use of. The 737 is a classic, as is
the 320. Are people adapting their business models to the unit rather than the other way
around?” The 737 MAX, ignoring its obvious issues,
was a groundbreaking plane. It pushed the boundaries of engine technology to the limit,
delivering lower fuel burn and better economy than any small aircraft that had gone before.
But the consensus is that it has gone as far as it can go. Without significant changes
to its construction or propulsion, any fuel savings will not be significant.
Boeing has previously been rumored to be contemplating a completely clean-sheet design, codenamed
the Future Small Airplane (FSA). It would employ some of the technology seen on airplanes
like the Dreamliner, such as composite construction, to give us a narrowbody that is fit for the
future. However, with everyone fighting for cash survival
right now, it seems unlikely there will be any new airplanes for some years to come.
For the foreseeable future, it seems the MAX is it.
Would you like to see a new clean-sheet narrowbody aircraft? Let us know
in the comments.