In 2020, the people of Chuuk state, in Micronesia are planning to hold a referendum on independence.
This is a big deal for the Pacific, as it’s not just about Chuuk or Micronesia, but could
also have global ramifications.
Firstly, let’s get down with the geography.
The Pacific ocean is huge, and its divided into several regions.
Some of these are Polynesia, Melanesia and Micronesia.
Micronesia is made up of thousands of islands and atolls.
There are several US territories here, including Guam, as well as countries like Palau, Nauru
the Marshall islands and of course, the Federated States of Micronesia.
The Federated states of Micronesia is a country which has 4 states, as shown on their flag.
These are Yap, Chuuk, Pohnpei and Kosrae.
It is this state, Chuuk, that plans to have a referendum on independence.
So why do the pro-independence supporters in Chuuk want to secede?
The Chuuk State Political Status Commission (or CSPSC) outlines 3 main reasons: politics,
culture, and economics.
Politically, because of the way the Micronesian Congress operates, people in Micronesia elect
10 representatives for congress, plus one extra for each state, regardless of population.
The president is then elected by the congress, not by popular vote.
Some in Chuuk feel as though this unfairly disadvantages their state, as it is the most
populous.
And people in Chuuk do elect fewer representatives per person than Yap and Kosrae, but actually
Pohnpei elects the fewest per person.
The CSPSC argues that cultural differences between the 4 states make it too hard to agree
on national policies.
There are also concerns about Chuuk losing its unique cultural identity while being part
of a Federation.
Finally, economically, independence supporters in Chuuk feel that they are not receiving
their fair share of revenue from the federal government.
This perceived inadequate division of money has been blamed for lacklustre infrastructure
throughout the state.
And speaking of money, being a tiny nation of just over 100,000 people, where does this
money even come from?
Well that brings us to the global ramifications bit.
The Federated States of Micronesia is in a Compact of Free Association with the US.
This means that the US gives the country money, as well as giving Micronesia’s citizens
the right to live and work in the US, in exchange for total authority and responsibility over
defence.
At the moment, this is about $110million USD/year – which is a lot of money for a country
whose total GDP about 350million/year.
You might be wondering why the US cares so much about having military control in the
Pacific on behalf of Micronesia, especially when the US territory of Guam (complete with
several large military bases) is so close by.
One of the answers is if the US holds military control in Micronesia, that means that China
doesn’t.
If Chuuk were to become independent, and fail to reach another agreement with the US, that
would open the door for other benefactors, such as China to take over a similar role
as bank-roller with military base benefits.
It could also even open the door to Taiwan, who has also been suring-up support in the
Pacific, for example when they loaned neighbouring Palau money to re-vamp their capitol.
So, what would Chuuk look like as an independent country?
Well, it would be one of the smallest countries on earth, with a total land area only 2/3
of the size of Liechtenstein (or about 2/3 the size of Washington DC).
However, its Exclusive Economic zone would cover vast swathes of the Pacific Ocean.
The population would be about 50,000 people, and the economy would still heavily rely on
foreign aid, although fishing licensing could also be a significant source of income, as
well as tourism, although growth in this sector is hindered by isolation and relative lack
of infrastructure.
Speaking of foreign aid – if Chuuk were to become independent, arranging funding to
replace or re-implement the current US agreement will take top priority.
It may seem like an inopportune time to be negotiating with the US, with a president
that is self-proclaimedly ‘America first’.
However, the whole country of Micronesia may be in the exact same situation in 2023 when
the current Compact of Free Association is due to expire.
It also seems as if Chuuk (and Micronesia as a whole) might be disadvantaged by its
tiny size in any negotiations with foreign powers.
But it may be able to leverage each of these global powers’ misgivings towards one another
to carve itself out a deal.
Or at least, this is what an independent Chuuk may be hoping to do.
The referendum has already been postponed twice – from 2015 and from 2019 – so firstly,
we will wait and see if it goes ahead in 2020.
Even if it does go ahead – a result in favour of independence is not a sure thing.
Several high profile Micronesians are against the idea, including former-presidents Haglelgam
and Mori, the latter who set up a Task Force on Unity, and current president Panuelo, whose
inaugural address in 2019 described the nation of the Federated States of Micronesia as a
canoe, different islands bound together.
If the vote goes ahead and independence is voted for it could then trigger a race between
benefactors – each country trying to solidify their Pacific military presence.
Will funding for the new republic be supplied by the US or China?
Will another overseas benefactor such as Taiwan, Australia or New Zealand step in?
And if the US is involved, will Chuuk be able to negotiate another compact of free association,
or will they just be left with covfefe?
Either way, the people of Chuuk are scheduled to have their say in 2020, and the rest of
the world will have to wait to see what the outcome might be.
Let me know what you think in the comments, especially if you’re from Micronesia.
And if you want to support the channel, I’ll leave a link to the merch store in the description.
You can find T-shirts there, including the island of Borneo drawn as a dinosaur, some
EEZs of the South Pacific drawn as bubbles, and my new Maritime Zones infographic poster.
Geography themed T-shirts are fun, but I’d love to make more posters in the future.
It costs money to pay designers, so if you like that idea please show your support.
Thanks for watching, and see you soon.