In June 2023, reports emerged that the United States has been
pushing Saudi Arabia to finally recognise Israel.
if it happens, it'll mark a major turning point for
the Middle East and will be a huge diplomatic triumph for Washington.
But close observers suggest that Riyadh has made some major demands
in return for reversing what is still a hugely symbolic policy.
So, is Saudi Arabia really ready to recognise Israel? And at what price?
Hello and welcome. If you're new to the channel, my name is James Ker-Lindsay,
and here I take an informed look at international relations, conflict, security, and statehood.
The modern international system is built on the concept of sovereign states.
Entities that have full authority over those living within a defined geographic area.
This system is in turn underpinned by recognition.
It's the way that these states tell each other
that their sovereignty is accepted and respected - at least on paper.
While almost all the 193 members of the United Nations now recognise each other,
a small group of states still don't enjoy this universal recognition.
In most cases, this comes down to tensions with just one or two other countries.
These include North and South Korea, Japan, Armenia, and Cyprus.
However, one country stands out above all others: Israel.
Despite joining the UN in 1949, 27 countries still refused to recognise it.
Arguably the most important of these is Saudi Arabia.
And yet, after almost three quarters of a century, could this now be about to change?
At 2.1 million square kilometres, or 830 000 square miles, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
is the 12th largest member of the United Nations and has a population of 36 million.
To its north, it shares a border with Jordan, Iraq, and Kuwait.
Along its east coast, it borders Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and has a bridge to Bahrain.
To its south are Oman and Yemen.
In addition, it has maritime boundaries with Iran to its northeast and Egypt to its west.
And while it doesn't have a formal land or sea border with Israel, at their closest
point they're just 16 kilometres, or 10 miles, apart - making them neighbours.
Saudi Arabia has a hugely symbolic place in the international system as the birthplace
and spiritual home of Islam, the second largest of the world's religions after Christianity.
Having first emerged on the west coast of the Arabian peninsula in the early 7th Century,
under the guidance of the Prophet Muhammad the faith quickly spread across the rest
of the Arabian Peninsula before extending into North Africa, Persia, India, and Central Asia.
Today, they were believed to be almost 2 billion Muslims around the world.
And Arabia remains firmly at the heart of the faith as an
integral part of two of the five pillars of Islam.
Devout Muslims pray five times each day in the direction of Mecca,
the holy city, and a pilgrimage to Mecca,
known as the Hajj, is a required duty for Muslims able to make the journey.
Despite its spiritual significance, for much of the past 1400 years Arabia largely faded into
obscurity as the political leadership of the Muslim world moved elsewhere,
including Baghdad and later Constantinople - the capital of the Ottoman Empire.
And in the 16th Century, the Ottomans in turn invaded Arabia, seizing control
of Mecca and other territories on the western part of the peninsula.
But while several Arabian states would emerge over the next few hundred years,
this Ottoman rule would last until the start of the 20th century.
At that point, a new uprising occurred under Abdulaziz bin Abdul Rahman al-Saud,
a member of the House of Saud - the preeminent Arabian family.
In 1915, as the First World War raged and Britain and France carved up the
Ottoman Middle East, Abdulaziz made his territory a British protectorate.
This lasted until 1926, when Britain formally recognised its independence.
And six years later, on 23 September 1932, it became the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
By the 1940s, Saudi Arabia had become a significant actor in the Middle East.
Besides its spiritual importance,
it also began gaining economic strength following the discovery of oil in 1938.
It was also becoming a major political player.
As well as setting up the now 22-member Arab League in 1945,
it also became one of just five Arab founding members of the 51-member United Nations;
alongside Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria.
And it's at this point that our story really starts.
As the Second world war ended and European decolonisation began, the UN
agreed to partition the British-administered territory of Palestine into two new states:
a Jewish homeland and a country for the Palestinian Arabs.
However, this was immediately rejected by the Muslim states in the UN,
including Saudi Arabia, which voted against the plan.
As a result, when Israel officially declared independence on 14 May 1948, it was immediately
attacked by its Arab neighbours, including Saudi Arabia, which sent troops to fight in the war.
But rather than face defeat and destruction,
Israel beat off the attack and seized most of the territory set aside for the Palestinian state.
Having failed to eradicate the new state,
Israel was now shunned by the Arab and broader Muslim world.
Although it was admitted as the 59th member of the UN on 11 May
1949, Saudi Arabia and 12 other countries opposed that membership.
And in the years that followed, the Arab and most of the Muslim
World remained steadfastly against the existence of the Jewish State.
This would lead to several further conflicts.
In 1967 Israel was again attacked, and once more it defeated the invasion, seizing control
of the remaining territories inhabited by the Palestinians: the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.
However, as the 1970s ended two major events occurred that would slowly but surely change
the international relations of the Middle East and broader Arab attitudes towards Israel.
The first of these was the Iranian Revolution, in January 1979.
Having overthrown the Persian royal family, the theocratic Shia leadership
in Tehran now began to pose a threat to the Sunni Arab Gulf monarchies,
including Saudi Arabia - a threat that many see as persisting to this day.
This would further strengthen Saudi Arabia's growing strategic partnership with the United
States, which has already emerged as Israel's key ally and sponsor on the world stage.
The second factor came when the United States brokered a peace
agreement that saw Egypt become the first Arab state to recognise Israel officially.
Although Saudi Arabia, like most Arab states, strongly objected - breaking
off diplomatic relations with Egypt until 1987 - it nevertheless marked
an essential first step towards wider Arab recognition of Israel.
This would be further cemented in 1993 when Norwegian-led talks resulted in the signing
of an historic agreement between Israel and the Palestinian Liberation Organisation at
the White House - a deal that envisaged the eventual creation of a Palestinian state.
But while this paved the way for two more Arab countries to recognise Israel - Jordan in 1994
and Mauritania in 1999 - most of the region, including Saudi Arabia, still resolutely
refused to recognise Israel, with some even continuing to openly call for its destruction.
As the 2000 started, the Middle East entered a new period of upheaval.
Despite initial optimism, Israel and the Palestinians had yet to
reach a final settlement, almost 10 years after signing their deal.
Meanwhile, various Islamists extremist groups had emerged across the region.
Fuelled in part by the plight of the Palestinians, these included Al-Qaeda,
which carried out the 911 attack in 2001 - an attack orchestrated by Saudi citizens.
But while many ordinary Arabs remained angry about the plight of the Palestinians,
a growing number of Arab governments became increasingly resigned to the
fact that 50 years after its creation the state of Israel was here to stay.
More than that, they began to see it as a valuable potential economic and
security partner, especially as a counterweight
to an increasingly assertive Iran hat was by now developing nuclear weapons.
As a result, several countries, including Saudi Arabia, quietly began to develop
relations with Israel, including building security and intelligence cooperation.
However, despite continuing pressure from Washington,
none were willing to follow through with formal recognition.
All this, however, changed on 13 August 2020,
when news broke that United Arab Emirates had reached a peace agreement with Israel - becoming
only the fourth Arab UN member to do so and the first in over 20 years.
It was then followed by Bahrain just a week later.
And by the end of the year, Sudan and Morocco had also recognised Israel.
All this amounted to a huge diplomatic victory for the Trump Administration,
which had lobbied hard for these deals.
But despite hopes that these agreements - known as the Abraham Accords after the patriarch of the
Muslim and Jewish faiths - would herald a broader Arab and Muslim shift, the momentum soon stopped.
Since President Biden took office, in January 2021, there have been no further recognitions.
Indeed, there's been growing concern that things have been going in the opposite direction.
As well as a major rift between Washington and Riyadh over oil supplies,
the United States's diplomatic influence in the region appears to be declining.
And, at the same time, China appears to be becoming a crucial new player.
This was highlighted in early 2023 when Beijing brokered an agreement between
Saudi Arabia and Iran that ended several years of heightened tensions between the two countries.
Since then, Iran which remains implacably opposed to Israel,
has launched a diplomatic effort to mend relations with the Gulf region.
All this poses a major problem for the Biden Administration.
Facing a presidential election in 2024, it clearly wants a foreign policy victory in the Middle East
and is focused on normalising relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia as part of this goal.
This was recently made clear by the U.S Secretary of State Anthony Blinken on a visit to Riyadh in
June 2023 when he emphasised the importance of such an agreement.
So, will Saudi Arabia now recognise Israel?
At this stage, it's hard to say.
While the Saudi government indicates that it's open to the idea, and also
sees benefits from normalisation, many observers are pessimistic.
Reports suggest Riyadh has made several challenging demands in return for recognition.
Firstly, and perhaps most importantly,
it wants to develop a nuclear power program, including uranium enrichment.
However, Washington and Israel have long opposed
this in a region where efforts are underway to limit this technology.
Secondly, Riyadh wants a new security pact with the United States, including expanded arms sales.
This could face strong opposition from Congress, esspecially given long-standing concerns about
Saudi Arabia's reliability as an ally and given the recent tensions between Washington and Riyadh.
Then, on top of all this, Israel will also need to cooperate.
Given that recognising Israel will be unpopular amongst many ordinary Saudis,
Riyadh wants some clear benefits for the Palestinians.
This is potentially a tough ask given the current state of the peace process
and the hardline position at the Netanyahu government in Israel.
Then again, a deal with Saudi Arabia would be a huge win for the Israeli Prime Minister,
and so he may feel the need to push for such concessions.
But even if recognition were to happen, just how significant would it really be?
Of course, on the one hand we could argue that it would be hugely symbolic.
Saudi Arabia is a crucial state in the Arab world
and a leader in the broader community of Muslim states.
But would it really encourage other states to recognise Israel?
Here the answer is unclear.
Certainly, it could be a catalyst for some other countries to do so.
And the likely candidates would be the Gulf States, such as Kuwait and Oman, and other Arab
League members somewhat removed from Israel, such as Somalia, Djibouti and the Comoros.
But other Arab states, such as Algeria, Iraq, Lebanon,
and Syria are unlikely to follow suit as they have ongoing territorial disputes with
Israel or retain deep ideological opposition to recognising it.
Likewise, other Muslim states, such as Iran, show no sign of change.
Nevertheless, and regardless of what other countries choose to do,
if Saudi Arabia does finally recognise Israel, it will inevitably be seen as a hugely significant
moment for an issue that's been at the heart of international relations for the past 80 years.
I hope you found that useful.
If so, here are some more videos on the Middle East that you might find interesting.
Thanks so much for watching and see you in the next video.