In October 2011, US intelligence operatives uncovered an Iranian plot to kill the Saudi
ambassador to the United States, and just months prior, a Saudi diplomat working in
the Saudi Arabian consulate in Karachi, Pakistan, was shot and killed by gunmen on motorcycles,
later discovered to have direct ties to Iran's Revolutionary Guard.
Since then, tensions between the two Gulf states have been steadily heating up, most
recently boiling over into a proxy war in Yemen with both sides backing opposite powers.
With many fearing all-out war is on the horizon, who would be in the best position to win?
That’s what we’ll explore today, in this episode of The Infographics Show, Saudi Arabia
vs Iran.
Iran is ranked as the world's 13th most powerful military, while Saudi Arabia lags far behind
at number 26.
The first and most obvious advantage Iran holds over Saudi Arabia, is manpower- with
a population of 82,000,000, Iran has a potential manpower pool of 47,000,000, with 1.4 million
youths reaching military age every year.
Saudi Arabia, by comparison, is far less populated, with a total population of 28.5 million, and
a total potential manpower pool of 15.3 million, and 510,000 youths reaching military age every
year.
Currently, Iran has 534,000 active duty personnel in its military, with 400,000 reservists.
Saudi Arabia's military only numbers at 231,000, with a meager 25,000 reservists.
The one area where Saudi Arabia boasts a clear advantage, however, is in its defense budget,
with a total budget of $69.4 billion, versus Iran's $8 billion.
This disparity in budgets means Saudi Arabia can bring more modern weapons to bear as we'll
see later, however a long and protracted war would clearly favor Iran with its much larger
manpower pool.
Saudi Arabia holds another decisive advantage in the air, with a total of 844 combat aircraft
versus Iran's 505.
Saudi Arabia fields 203 fighter/interceptors versus Iran's 150, and 284 attack aircraft
versus Iran's 158.
Saudi Arabia's planes are on the whole far more capable and modern than Iran's, with
the majority of its air combat fleet made up of European Typhoon fighters and American
F-15 variants.
Iran, on the other hand, is equipped with 44 American F-14 Tomcats, delivered to Iran
just before its revolution and ties to the US were cut off.
While still a capable aircraft, Iranian F-14s are equipped with nearly 4-decade old electronics,
and it is anyone's guess as to their current readiness considering that Iran has had no
access to American-made spare parts.
To supplement its air forces, Iran also fields MiG-29s, although with no new shipments from
Russia, it has been forced to slowly cannibalize its own aircraft to keep others operational,
and every year the number available for combat shrinks.
The rest of the Iranian inventory is made up of antiquated American F-4s and F-5s - again
purchased prior to the revolution - and a handful of Sukhoi Su-24s and Su-25s.
In recent years, Iran has made an attempt at developing home-grown fighter aircraft,
touting in 2013 that they had developed a 5th-Generation fighter capable of competing
with the US's F-35.
However, the released footage of the so-called 5thGen fighter was quickly debunked by engineers
worldwide, as it sported decisively non-stealthy features.
Ultimately, it was revealed to be a hoax.
On the ground, Iran is armed with 1,650 main battle tanks versus Saudi Arabia's 1,142.
Iran chiefly fields the Russian-made T-72 and T-54, and 300 American M-60 Pattons.
Saudi Arabia is equipped with the M-1 Abrams and also fields a sizable amount of M-60 Pattons.
While outnumbering Saudi Arabia, the T-72 is simply not a match for the M-1 Abrams and
its modern upgrade packages.
With superior sensors and electronics, Saudi Arabia's M-1s would decimate Iran's T-72s
and the hopelessly antiquated T-54s and M-60s.
Yet as the war in Yemen and its tank casualties has shown, Saudi Arabia's M-1s suffer from
one critical vulnerability- they are not equipped with the depleted uranium armor that America's
own Abrams sport.
While this makes them lighter and less fuel-consumptive, it also significantly reduces their durability.
If Iran carefully chose the battlefield- sticking to daytime engagements and the flat deserts
of eastern Saudi Arabia- Iran's superior numbers would overwhelm Saudi tanks.
However, with a superior air force, its likely Saudi Arabia would dictate the order of battle,
and if it chose to engage at night time, its tanks could use superior sensors and targeting
technology to level the playing field against Iran's numbers.
In 2016, Iran did announce that it was mass-producing the indigenously produced Karra main battle
tank.
Boasting that it was as capable as Russia's T-90, and could even exceed it in unspecified
areas, world media has been extremely skeptical of the claims given both Iran's previous lies
about its 5th-Generation fighter program, and the fact that the Karra seems to be a
near-copy of the Russian T-90.
Further doubts are compounded by the isolationism of Iranian defense industry, which lacks materials
and technical expertise to create the cutting-edge electronics and defense systems critical to
a modern tank; the general consensus being that in all likelihood, the Karra is a re-skinned
T-90 variant with none of the critical internal electronics of the original.
Whatever the reality ends up being, Iran has begun to field these tanks in number, and
perhaps the more important point is that Iran maintains a robust arms industry while Saudi
Arabia relies exclusively on imported weapons.
Tanks are, however, only half of the ground war, and as proven by Russia's staggering
losses in the Chechen conflict, are nearly useless in urban combat without infantry support.
While Iran fields a larger infantry force, it is only equipped with 2,215 armored fighting
vehicles.
Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, has fully integrated AFVs into its infantry forces, with 5,475
AFVs giving its infantry far greater mobility and protection.
Such a disparity in numbers means that in a war, Saudi Arabia would be far more maneuverable,
and any gains made by Iran's tanks would be slowed due to their necessity of not outpacing
its mostly-on-foot infantry support.
If it's outmatched in mobility and quality of its armored forces, the one crushing advantage
Iran sports over Saudi Arabia is in sheer numbers of artillery.
With 440 self-propelled artillery, 2,188 towed artillery, and 1,533 rocket artillery pieces,
Iran absolutely dwarfs Saudi Arabia's fire support capabilities, which fields 524 self-propelled
artillery, 432 towed artillery, and 322 rocket artillery.
Iran's focus on fire support platforms is not unusual for nations in its position; North
Korea, another isolated and technologically outclassed nation, also invests heavily into
fire support platforms for the simple reason that artillery traditionally needs very little
technology to be effective.
A withering barrage of 100 lb (47kg) shells filled with 23 lbs (10.8 kg) of high explosive
will keep even the most technologically advanced foe at bay, at least until its superior air
forces neutralize the threat.
Iran and Saudi Arabia face each other from opposite sides of the Persian Gulf, however
the waterway is far more strategically important to Iran than to Saudi Arabia, who, in case
of conflict, can switch import/export operations to its Red Sea ports, safely out of range
of Iranian air or naval craft.
Long hounded by the US however, Iran has invested far more into its navy with one single goal:
shutting down the flow of oil through the Persian Gulf.
With 20% of global oil exports steaming across these waters, Iran is equipped with a total
of 398 naval assets versus Saudi Arabia's 55.
Iran is equipped with 5 Frigates versus Saudi Arabia's 7, but sports 10 mine warfare ships
versus Saudi Arabia's 3- specifically to mine and shut down oil shipping in the Gulf.
Iran also boasts 230 small patrol craft armed with mostly Chinese anti-ship missiles and
.50 caliber machine guns, while Saudi Arabia only has 11.
Perhaps Iran's biggest trump card, however, is its fleet of 33 submarines, most of which
are 'midget' subs with crews of 2-6.
While not a serious threat to a modern navy, Iran's midget subs could potentially decimate
the fleet of oil tankers that habitually navigate the Persian Gulf, posing a significant strategic
challenge in the event of war.
Saudi Arabia has long enjoyed the benefit of powerful allies such as the United States,
and, with greater wealth, overwhelmingly sports more technologically advanced equipment.
Yet despite being burdened by crippling UN sanctions, Iran still fields a formidable
military and perhaps more importantly, a homegrown arms industry.
While any war between the two nations would immediately see the inclusion of the United
States, and likely the bulk of NATO on the Saudi side, a one-on-one conflict would ultimately
likely lead to a limited Iranian victory.
So, how do you think
the two militaries would perform in a new Gulf war?
Let us know in the comments!
Also, be sure to check out our other video called What Happened to the Man Who Put His
Head Inside a Particle Accelerator ! Thanks for watching, and, as always, don’t forget
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See you next time!