The war in Ukraine
has altered the lives of millions.
And has sent prices for goods like oil
and natural gas
skyrocketing around the world.
But the worst may be yet to come.
Ukraine has been called
the breadbasket of the world.
Together with Russia,
the two nations account
for about 30% of global wheat exports.
Not only that, but 12% of all
the calories consumed around the world.
Yet, since the beginning of Russia’s
invasion in February,
both countries have been effectively
cut off from exporting food.
Millions of Ukrainians
have been forced to flee their homes
or join in the defense effort.
The conflict has also physically disrupted
many of the country’s
essential fuel supply and trade routes.
And Russia?
Russia's under heavy economic sanctions
that make exporting food
enormously difficult.
So with the timeline to de-escalation
still unclear,
could the world be on the verge
of global hunger?
Ukraine is one of the largest exporters
of wheat, corn and sunflower seeds.
And this year, Ukrainian harvests
are estimated to be down about 30%.
And right away,
this would cause a ripple effect
around the world.
Some places would be more
directly affected by this than others.
Particularly countries
in Northern Africa and Central Asia.
If you live in Armenia,
Mongolia or Eritrea,
you could see your wheat supply
completely cut off.
And finding another source
wouldn't be so easy.
You’d now be forced to compete
with more economically powerful nations
that can afford to pay higher prices.
Turkey, Iran and Bangladesh import
over 60% of their
wheat from Russia and Ukraine.
And Egypt depends on these countries
for a staggering 80% of its supply.
The price of wheat is already up 69%
within the last year.
And with an ongoing effect
on the supply chain,
those prices could continue to climb.
The longer the war continues,
the more serious this
wheat situation gets.
These higher prices wouldn’t
be limited to just wheat.
Livestock around the world
consumes a lot of grain.
Animal feed prices would skyrocket.
And because of that,
meat all over the world
would start getting pricey too.
And it gets worse.
Russia and Belarus are two of the largest
exporters of potash,
which is an important ingredient
in fertilizers.
Now both of those countries
are under sanctions.
Russia for starting the war,
and Belarus for supporting Russia's
aggression against a sovereign country.
All this means that Brazil,
which depends on these two countries
for about half of its potash supply,
would have to cough up
more cash too.
So you’d start to see the price
of your favorite coffee,
soy and beef products climbing
higher and higher.
Disruption to the fertilizer trade
would have enormous effects beyond
just rising costs.
This could seriously threaten
the global food system.
Farmers all around the world
depend on fertilizers to grow their food.
Without it, you’d see massive declines
in food production of all kinds.
And with that,
we’d now be in really dangerous territory.
Countries would begin
to limit their food exports in favor
of making sure there is enough supply
to feed their own citizens.
In many places,
there simply wouldn't be enough money
or supply to guarantee this.
For potentially millions of people,
bread being expensive
would no longer be the core issue.
Now they might not have any bread at all.
That could lead to social
and political upheavals.
Many countries subsidize bread costs
to avoid this very circumstance.
Riots would break out
and many governments
would violently crack down
on their own people to maintain order.
And organizations
that normally rush to aid in
these moments would be in trouble too.
Before the war,
the United Nations World Food Programme
relied on Ukraine
for half its grain supply
to feed starving people around the world.
Now, around 45% of Ukrainians are worried
about not finding enough
food for themselves.
In times of stability,
having such an interconnected
global economy
can provide people with so many things.
But when something like Russia’s
invasion of Ukraine disrupts that,
it reveals how fragile this system is.
Our food supply chains could be damaged
for years to come.
And things could still get worse.
Like if Russia launches a nuke.
But that’s a story for another WHAT IF.