They are just 70 days until the November elections. And as we head
into the fall, the political winds seem to be shifting towards a
tighter competition for control of Congress than many thought. Just
a few months ago. Lisa Desjardin has more abortion, inflation and
investigations into the former president are all hot topics in the
midterm cycle with the potential to reshape how voters look at their
choices this election here to assess it all our Amy Walter of the
Cook Political report with Amy Walter and Tamara Keith, NPR.
Hello to both of you. Virtually
Ladies summer is ending school is starting. It feels like we're moving
into the next political season as well. And Amy The Cook Political
report I noticed last week changed its overall forecast. Now your
team sees more of a ripple as you put it in a wave for Republicans
in the midterms in the house. Why is that and how much of that has
to do with presidents, both current and former
Yes. You summed it up pretty well. Lisa by looking at the three topics
that we think have had the biggest impact on turning what was looking
like a red wave into at this point, a much smaller one, and especially
in the house. Our house editor, David Wasserman has changed our forecast
from one that, uh
Was predicting Republicans gaining somewhere between 20 and 30 seats
to one now is more 10 to 20 seats. And, um, the You know, big reasons
aren't the ones that you mentioned abortion, Trump and lower gas
prices on abortion. The since the decision came down at the end of
June that overturned Roe versus Wade, What we've seen is an increase
in democratic enthusiasm. We've seen it in special.
Elections, specifically the special election in the Hudson Valley
in New York that we talked about last week, but we've seen it in
a number of other redder districts where the Republican turnout,
um just didn't match what we had seen in 2020. And so that's one
factor increased democratic enthusiasm.
And you're right. President Trump ubiquitous presence on the, uh,
the political scene. He himself doesn't want to leave the stage.
But it's also true that what we're seeing from candidates is that
they Republican candidates specifically are embracing him and his
theory. The big lie about the election. I think that's turning off
a bunch of voters, many of whom were publicans had wanted to pick
up in this
Election.
On the issue of the economy, but instead what they're seeing is more
of the trump chaos that many of them voted against in 2020, even
as they weren't particularly excited about voting for Joe Biden.
It's so interesting. Democrats are supposed to be entirely on defense,
but we're seeing some moves that speak of offense to me like Tam.
President Biden is going to have a prime time speech on Thursday
from Philadelphia. Why is he doing that now? What is the political
goal there?
Right, so he's delivering a speech about the soul of the nation in
Pennsylvania. He has delivered speeches about the soul of the nation
before, namely during his campaign for president. His successful
campaign for president
and part of what he's doing here is laying out his midterm message.
Democrats have this sense that they could tie together several of
the themes out there that are motivating Democratic voters fears
about the state.
Date of American democracy, as well as fears about abortion rights
going away and and the abortion rights issue is something that is
front and center for many voters that isn't purely a democratic motivator.
But it's also motivating some independent voters as well. And and
President Biden with this speech is is laying out his case, which
is that people's rights are on the line.
You know, in recent years, political philosophy in this country has
also impacted the psychology of this country significantly
over the weekend, we heard this from one of Trump's staunchest allies
in Congress, Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina.
If there's a prosecution of Donald Trump for mishandling classified
information after the Clinton debacle, which you presided over and
did a hell of a good job, there'll be riots in the streets.
You know, I've covered Senator Graham, a long time coming back to
South Carolina. He's a man who likes exclamation points literally
puts those on his press releases every time but I want to ask you,
Amy about the temperature right now, you know words like that sound
different now than they did 20 years ago. What's the temperature
like now? And what do you take about our politicians Acknowledging
anger or are they stoking anger?
Well, Lisa. We could have like a multi hour discussion about that
that we can't fit into the this politics Monday. But it is a very
important question. And look when we see where voters are today,
with so many of them, saying they believe that every single election
is about saving the country, it's no longer just about I'm voting
for the candidate I like or sending a message against the candidate
I dislike it is if my side loses, that is a
Danger to what it means to be America and American democracy. Both
sides are believing this, but I think for Republicans, especially
and this is why we're seeing that winds change somewhat. It is dangerous
to be continuing to hold on to the Trump mantle Look, a truism in
politics is that midterm elections?
Are almost always a referendum on the party in charge. And right
now President Biden although his approval ratings have gone up a
slight bit, he is still in very dangerous territory only about 42%
approval rating. His approval ratings on the economy are very deeply
underwater. Republicans are trusted more on the economy. When you
talk to Republican strategist who are in these tight races this year,
they want to talk about that. They don't want to talk about Donald
Trump, and they have been really caught flat.
Footed about talking about abortion, where it's now Republicans who
are being cast as being on the extreme changing the status quo. Democrats
defending the status quo town.
Yes. So I interpreted Senator Graham not as making a threat but making
a prediction or issuing a warning. If you will, that the temperature,
as you say, is, the temperature of the nation is not in a good place
and in particular in in the right wing fever, swamps of the Internet.
Uh
It is common practice to talk about violence against Trump's opponents
to talk about, uh, wanting violence or otherwise glorifying violence
and and and Lindsey Graham isn't just talking about this in the abstract.
There was already January 6th. He was in the capital when that happened,
and there was also a supporter of the former president who posted
on truth Social as he was headed to a Cincinnati
FBI field office to try to, um, you know, get revenge for the search
warrant being executed at Mara Lago, So this is not abstract at all.
I mean, and just our last minute here attempt. One other important
but complicated question and Tam first you President Biden is moving
on student loans extending and expanding trying to loan forgiveness.
What are the risks and rewards, though not every Democrat thinks
it's a great idea.
Yeah, There certainly are some moderate Democrats who have some concerns
about it, and the from the Biden perspective. This was a campaign
promise that he made and it is a campaign promise that he is now
venturing to keep And there was a lot of pressure, particularly from
younger voters. He has for some time had younger voters quite frustrated
that that he made promises that he wasn't keeping well in the last
month or so, thanks to the legislation on climate change.
In this. There are a lot of things for younger voters to be happy
about that. I don't know that this will be any more motivating than
they already are motivated about abortion rights
seconds. What about non college educated voters or Democrats to write
some of them?
That's absolutely right. Look, the risk is that it allows Republicans
to refocus this election back to where they wanted to go all along,
which is to say Democrats are the party of reckless spending. The
inflation is incredibly high because of their policies. We are in
a very dangerous, fragile place, and this is a very dangerous economic
policy to push through without a vote in Congress. As usual, YouTube
did triple sow cow.
House in a cubicle for us on politics. Monday. Amy Walter and Tamara
Keith, thanks to both of you