DEFINITION OF A TECHNICAL
RECESSION FIT OF THE WHITE HOUSE
IS TRYING TO CHANGE THAT RIGHT
NOW GETTING AHEAD OF THE REPORT
JOIN ME WRITE OUT MERRILL LYNCH
WEALTH MANAGEMENT PRESIDENT ANDY
SIEG.
ANY IT’S GREAT TO SEE YOU THANKS
FOR BEING HERE.
I WANT TO LOOK AHEAD WITH YOU,
NOT ONLY DO AT THE FEDERAL
RESERVE DAY MEETING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WE HAVEN’T GDP WHICH
WE WILL KNOW IF WE ARE IN A
RECESSION OR NOT.
WE ALSO HAVE MAJOR TECH HE LOOK
AT AN APPLE OR MICROSOFT IT DOES
SPEAK TO NOT JUST THE BROAD
ECONOMIC BACKDROP BUT ALSO THE
SUPPLY CHAIN, CHINA ET CETERA.
HOW WOULD YOU ASSESS THE CURRENT
STORY TODAY, KNOWING IF SPEND A
LOT OF TIME WITH CLIENTS.
>> I THINK THE BEST PLACE TO
START IS WITH CONSUMERS.
ONE OF THE THINGS WE CONTINUE TO
SEE HIS STRENGTH IN TERMS OF
CONSUMER ACTIVITY
YEAR-OVER-YEAR.
LOOK AT ALL THE MONEY THAT MOST
OF THE PIPES OF BANK OF
AMERICA’S THE CROSS 67 MILLION
U.S. HOUSEHOLDS.
THAT NUMBER’S UP A LITTLE OVER
10% YEAR ON YEAR.
WE ADDRESS FOR INFLATION
HOUSEHOLDS IT COMES DOWN A BIT
FROM THERE.
IT IS STILL CLEARLY ASSIGNED TO
CONSUMER IT REMAINS A STRONGER.
HE SOUGHT IN THE MARKETS THIS
WEEK A RELIEF RALLY’S EARNINGS
EARLY IN HER EARNINGS SEASON
RESULTS HAVE COME OUT RELATIVELY
STRONG.
TAKE A STEP BACK THIS IS A VERY
UNUSUAL ENVIRONMENT I THINK POST
A PANDEMIC WE HAVE BEEN SEEING A
PENDULUM SWING FAR AND WIDE.
MARKETS HAVE BEEN DOWN BEAT
SENTIMENT VERY LOW.
WE ARE PRETTY ENCOURAGED BY WHAT
WE SEE IN THE CONSUMER WITH
REGARD TO HOW COMPANIES ARE
PERFORMING.
MARIA: WERE SILKEN DOUBLE DIGIT
DECLINED TODAY NASDAQ 23% YEAR
TO DATE.
IN THE LAST THREE WEEKS YOU GOT
ABOUT A 10% RALLY PAID.
>> ONE OF OUR LEADING RESEARCH
ANALYSTS SAID PEOPLE HAVE BEEN
SO BEARISH THEY ARE BECOMING
BULLISH ESSENTIALLY.
SENTIMENT IS THIS A BAD THAT
TENDS TO BE A CONTRARIAN
INDICATOR.
THAT IS A DRIVER OF THAT RELIEF
RALLY.
TO TAKE A STEP BACK AND THINK
MORE BROADLY.
THE FIRST HALF HAVE THROWN THE
WORST MARKET IN 50 YEARS AT
CLIENTS.
WE ARE CERTAINLY NOT IN THE
WORST ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT IN
THE LAST 50 YEARS.
AND IN MANY DIFFERENT WAYS THE
U.S. ECONOMY REMAINS A PILLAR IN
THE WORLD ECONOMY AND INVESTORS
ATTEND TO LOOK MEDIUM AND
LONG-TERM.
AND WHEN YOU DO SO THERE’S
REASONS TO BE BULLISH AROUND THE
FUTURE OF THE U.S. ECONOMY.
MARIA: IF YOU ARE LOOKING AT THE
LONG TERM ARE THERE AREAS YOU
BELIEVE INVESTORS SHOULD BE IN
REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS NEXT
WEEK?
DO YOU THINK WILL GET 75 BASIS
POINTS FROM THE FED AND NEWS WE
ARE IN RECESSION?
DOES IT MATTER?
>> WE DO THINK WILL GET 75 BASIS
POINTS IT NEXT WEEK.
WITH REGARD TO WHETHER IT
MATTERS WE ARE IN A RECESSION TO
THINK THE MARKETS AT THIS POINT
HAVE ASSUMED A MILD RECESSION.
I DON’T THINK IT’S PARTICULARLY
CONSEQUENTIAL AT THE DATA POINT
SHOWS NEXT WEEK.
I THINK AGAIN THE MARKET IS
ANTICIPATING WE ARE MOVING
TOWARD RECESSION.
I THINK IF YOU TAKE A STEP BACK
THE FIRST QUESTION, WHICH IS A
GREAT ONE WHERE TO PUT MONEY
OVER TIME?
AS I SAID WE LOVE THE STORY OF
THE U.S. ECONOMY IN THE U.S.
EQUITY MARKET.
WE ADVISED CLIENTS TO BROADLY
DIVERSIFIED IN A WAY THAT’S
KEEPING WITH THEIR MEDIUM AND
LONG-TERM GOALS.
INCREASINGLY WE WANT TO ENSURE
IT IS AS BROAD AS POSSIBLE.
WE HAVE CLIENTS THAT MUCH MORE
FOCUSED ON ADDING ALTERNATIVE
INVESTMENTS TO THEIR PORTFOLIOS,
REAL ASSET FOR EXAMPLE SHOULD
INFLATION BE MORE PERSISTENT
THERE IS SOME UPSIDE.
AND ACROSS A BANK OF AMERICA OR
WEALTH MANAGEMENT BUSINESS OUR
CLIENTS OWNING’S OF ALTERNATIVE
INVESTMENTS ARE UP 36% YEAR ON
YEAR.
THIS IS A PLACE WHERE MONEY HAS
BEEN MOVING.