The exploration of space is one of our most important scientific endeavors in
the twenty-first century. Learning more about the universe, our place in it,
and whether or not we’re alone… the pursuit of knowledge is a
cornerstone of our civilization. But even the massive expanse of space must sometimes take
a backseat when problems unfold on Earth. This is Unveiled and today we’re answering
the extraordinary question; Is space travel doomed if USA and Russia go to war?
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Russia and the United States have for a long time had a competitive (but largely
cooperative) relationship when it comes to space travel. Even when the politics on Earth have been
hostile between the countries, both sides have generally tried to keep their efforts in space
out of it. Even amidst the Cold War, Russia (then the Soviet Union) and the United States teamed
up for various space missions, including for satellite launches… and both pledged to explore
space peacefully. That said, the Cold War was mostly characterized by threats and hostility, and
not actual physical conflict. If USA and Russia were ever to engage in open warfare, it’s perhaps
likely that things would be very different. Collaborative efforts in space would cease,
and this could lead to a complete overhaul in how humanity as a whole approaches space travel.
In 2022, tensions have been steadily rising between the two countries… and particularly since
the Russian invasion of its neighbor, Ukraine. This act brought near universal condemnation
down upon Russia, evidenced by a UN resolution which had 141 countries voting in favor of a
ceasefire and Russian withdrawal. There has been a string of economic sanctions
imposed on Russia, as well, resulting in - among other things - Russia acknowledging the problems
this could cause for the space industry. In a dramatic and concerning development,
there were reports that Russia could potentially destroy the International Space Station. The
country plays a pivotal role in maintaining the ISS, controlling the thrusters that keep
it from crashing into Earth. So, when the head of the Russian space program, Dmitry Rogozin,
ominously tweeted seeming threats to crash the station into the ground… it’s little
wonder that people were worried. And, although the comments have yet to trigger any kind of action,
it remains true that without Russian involvement, the station really could come crashing down.
Although it’d also take a long time (perhaps years) for it to fall completely,
so alternative solutions perhaps could be reached, in that scenario.
In general, what happens to the ISS would almost certainly be near the top of the agenda
were America and Russia ever to go to war against each other. But, more broadly still, we can see
that such an event could trigger another bitter space race between the nations. While documents
such as the Outer Space Treaty would still have an effect, space could almost instantly become a
far less cooperative prospect. The operations of NASA and Roscosmos would be top secret.
Sometimes, that’s already the case… but now it would be more of a blanket rule. To some degree,
we’re already seeing this - with or without war on the ground - in the next generation of
space station building. China has already begun the construction of its own station, Tiangong,
while Russia is planning to launch a rival, private station in the coming years… and India
is planning to begin one by around the year 2030. Meanwhile, the US is contracting private companies
to build its space station of the future, in a bid to split the costs and increase the innovation.
We’ve seen in the past that political tension can accelerate space technology, so perhaps all
these structures would be fast-tracked were a hypothetical war to take place. Either that,
or they could all be put on the back burner, in favor of other, non-space needs.
Elsewhere, though, getting to the moon is again a top priority… but would it remain that way
in times of war? Right now, Russia reportedly has plans to team up with China to develop a lunar
base to rival the one that the U.S. and other countries are planning to build under Project
Artemis. With both ventures, it’s hoped that they’ll inspire the economy toward funding more
space missions and programs in the future - but developments in war could have an impact. That
said, we know that during the real-world Cold War, it’s not as though the space race ever went
underfunded, on either side… with NASA, especially, receiving around one percent of
the federal budget throughout much of it, compared to the less-than-half a percent it receives now.
Rather than dooming space travel, then, there’s again some reason to think that
a war could increase space research and get us back to the moon more quickly...
just as political tension in the past pushed America to the moon first time around.
But still, even in times of relative peace, many view the money spent on space travel as wasted…
and if America and Russia ever were going against each other, there’d certainly be
some argument that space funding should go to the military instead, which could therefore
have a negative impact on space travel. Crucially, though, today’s world is vastly different to any
previous generation and, ultimately, war has now started to seep into space, anyway. Any
hypothetical conflict between two superpowers like Russia and the United States would, then,
almost certainly entail space warfare from the beginning. We saw in a recent video how a Russian
anti-satellite missile test generated controversy, destroying (as it did) an old and defunct Russian
satellite by simply and ruthlessly blasting it to pieces and leaving the debris to collect in
Earth’s orbit. Any US/Russia war of the future would surely mean both countries focussing on
the development and use of similar weapons, though, even more so than they already do.
And for both offensive and defensive reasons. Current predictions include that war on the
ground could escalate (and be enhanced) in the future with the use of signal jamming devices,
directed-energy weapons, and anti-satellite weapons (otherwise known as ASATs). There has also
been talk in the past of turning space stations into military bases, to operate close at hand
if (or when) space gets transformed into a battlefield. Clearly, for any of that to happen,
there needs to be money made available. And, for better or worse, that money is going to be plowed
into space technology, in general. Which could mean more launches than ever before, and more new
machines than ever before. According to reports, both the US and Russia are deep into researching
a new breed of microsatellite, for example… nimble devices that might one day zip between
larger satellites, repairing friendly ones and hacking or destroying those of the enemy. In the
context of war, technologies like this are perhaps dangerous and worrying… and would represent a
clear focus on weaponization rather than science. But they’d still require cutting edge design,
and that might one day have wide-reaching applications for space travel as a whole.
Nevertheless, ultimately, war on the ground can only be bad news for our future in space.
Planned joint missions will fall through and space research will suffer. The first
signs of this are already here, in 2022. The ExoMars rover, for example, a shared project
between the European Space Agency and Russia to look for signs of alien life on Mars, has been
suspended. Because of planned launch windows, the earliest it can now relaunch is in 2024.
Similarly, the eROSITA telescope, a joint project between Russia and Germany to map the universe has
been put into safe mode in protest at recent events. Because so many upcoming missions rely
on Russian Soyuz rockets for transit, and with Russia reportedly threatening to withhold their
technology, more delays are expected. And remember, in the real world so far,
open warfare between the US and Russia hasn’t yet broken out. Add into the equation Russia and
America’s shared involvement in other, non-space (but just as important) initiatives - such as
the development of nuclear fusion energy - and it’s apparent that not just space but science,
in general, will suffer. Yes, historically in times of war
we’ve seen an acceleration of technology. And, throughout the Cold War, we saw political turmoil
inspire an entire space race. But the modern world is a vastly different prospect, and there are now
so many shared, global missions that could collapse during a conflict. There are so
many breakthroughs that might’ve been made but could end up being pushed back indefinitely.
Nowadays, space travel needs cooperation. For a long time, the International Space Station
has been a symbol of that… but war, as with so many other aspects of life, could ruin it all.
What do you think? Is there anything we missed? Let us know in the comments, check out these other
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