China’s building up its military
To control the Pacific Ocean,
But does it have what it takes?
Welcome to China Uncensored.
I’m Chris Chappell.
China is expanding its military as it prepares for battle in the Pacific.
And that could lead to World War III.
Which, sure, that sounds terrifying.
Real war *is* terrifying.
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So, back to real life...in which China wants to conquer as much territory as possible.
A lot like in the game.
And just like in Conflict of Nations, it won’t end with control over just Taiwan.
It’s like that old children’s book:
If you give a communist mouse a cookie, it’s going to try and take other cookies by force.
For decades, China and its Communist Party have had their eyes on the South China Sea
and deep into the Pacific.
Dominating the Pacific would give China control over the most valuable trade routes in the
world and allow it to force countries like Japan to do its bidding.
It would also be able to keep US influence out of Asia and isolate US allies like Australia.
China recognizes the strategic importance of the Pacific, which is why it’s building
up its military at an alarming rate, especially compared to the US.
According to US Air Force Major General Cameron Holt , China is acquiring new weapons five
to six times faster than the US.
Which is alarming since, you know…
America *loves* its weapons.
That’s kinda the US’ whole thing.
This would be like finding out that North Korea is outpacing Canada in acquiring poutine.
And China can make weapons for cheap.
According to Holt, “In purchasing power parity, [China] spend[s] about one dollar
to [America’s] 20 dollars to get to the same capability.”
China’s navy especially is getting a major boost.
According to US Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro , “[China has] 13 shipyards, in some
cases…one shipyard has more capacity than all of [US] shipyards combined.”
Okay, but it’s not the size of the shipyard that counts.
It’s the motion of the ocean.
Or so I’ve heard.
In comparison, the US has only 7 shipyards that can build large ships, and the Navy’s
four public shipyards are all well over a hundred years old.
In addition, Navy aviation facilities are really aging.
And not well, like Paul Rudd.
More like Mickey Rourke.
The Pentagon’s 2022 China Military Power report states that China’s People’s Liberation
Army Navy “is numerically the largest navy in the world with an overall battle force
of approximately 340 ships and submarines.”
But this doesn’t include the approximately 85 patrol ships and craft that carry anti-ship
cruise missiles.
Or their jet skis with lances on them used for water jousting.
Okay, this isn’t confirmed… but I wouldn’t put it past them.
According to a more recent congressional report on China’s military, “[The] overall battle
force [of China’s navy] is expected to grow to 400 ships by 2025 and 440 ships by 2030.”
To give you a comparison, the US is expected to have only 290 battle force ships by the
end of 2030.
But it’s not just about the number of ships.
It’s about the types of ships.
I’ll tell you more after the break.
Welcome back.
China’s building up its military to take on the US and its allies, especially its navy.
But China’s naval build-up is actually primarily focused on one thing: missiles…
lots of missiles.
Especially hypersonic missiles for targeting moving ships at sea.
Remember the good old days when the only thing you had to fear out on the water was sharks,
instead of, you know…
Chinese missiles?
All of a sudden Jaws looks like a summer comedy.
A huge bulk of China’s fleet increase up to this point comes from its increased production
since the mid-2000s of small and mobile ships, including missile-armed patrol craft, corvettes,
and frigates.
Small surface combatants like these are slated to increase by more than a third within the
next two decades.
Missiles will fly.
Of course, all of these numbers just cover the Chinese navy’s official small military
vessels.
China will have even more boats with its maritime militia at hand.
And you thought I was joking.
At the same time, China’s going to be packing an even bigger punch with much larger cruisers
and destroyers, especially the newer kind like the Luyang III Type 052D and Renhai Type
055.
The larger class ships, along with ballistic missile submarines and nuclear-powered attack
submarines, are on track to double by 2040.
The same goes for China’s aircraft carriers.
In total, “The U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence forecasts that by 2030 China’s maritime
force will total over 800 warships, quasi-military coast guard cutters, and large ‘maritime
militia’ ships.”
And China’s not skimping on its naval air support, either.
According to the International Institute of Strategic Studies , China has a fleet of some
200 bombers and 1,400 fighter aircraft.
Assuming that only a third are deployed during an all-out war, China could launch 1,400 precision
land-attack and anti-ship missiles a day.
And who knows how many spy balloons , depending on how much helium they have lying around.
On top of that, China’s replacing its smaller amphibious ships with much larger ones, including
those that could potentially launch aircraft and drones.
Drones are especially going to play a bigger role as technology advances, and China’s
preparing for the US and others to use them as well.
No word on if these drones will be equipped with ChatGPT so they can trash talk each other
mid-battle.
Hey, if you’re gonna have a robot war, might as well have some fun.
With all this talk about military buildup, one key factor is logistics.
I’ll tell you more after this short commercial break.
Welcome back.
All the military equipment in the world is useless without good logistics.
Without good logistics, a nation can’t sustain combat in the long-term.
After all, what good is having powerful ships if they don’t have fuel and ammunition?
All you’ve got then is even more Chinese housing no one wants to live in.
That’s why China’s following Imperial Japan’s prewar path in the Pacific while
also learning from its failures.
China has studied how Imperial Japan failed to push back the US in part because of bad
logistics and its failure to attack the US’s logistical vulnerabilities.
Which is just a fancy way of saying, “If you come at the King, you best not miss.”
Pretty sure Patton said that.
According to Dr. Toshi Yoshihara at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments , “Today,
the PLA appreciates that logistical prowess—of the kind the United States demonstrated in
the Pacific War—is essential to its global ambitions.”
That’s why China needs things like forward bases, field transport and logistical ships,
and support facilities if it wants to conquer the Pacific.
China knows that, which is why China’s already making progress on that front.
It’s reaching out to other countries to establish its military presence in preexisting
bases.
Including ones used during World War II.
Talk about repeating history.
China’s also creating its own bases from scratch by building artificial islands in
the South China Sea.
After a decade of work, some of these bases are now filled to the brim with military infrastructure.
This includes runways for aircraft, ports and harbors, communications equipment such
as radar domes and communication towers, and large housing facilities.
But sadly, not a single Starbucks in sight.
Good luck keeping morale up when the only thing fueling your soldiers is flavorless,
burnt insta-coffee, instead of Starbucks’ flavor-*ful* burnt insta-coffee.
Altogether, these artificial island facilities have extended Chinese power over the South
China Sea a lot.
Not only is China expanding into the South China Sea and preparing for an invasion of
Taiwan, but it’s also leapfrogging past the first and second island chains to set
the groundwork for Pacific domination.
This includes setting up partnerships and influence in Pacific islands like the Solomon
Islands.
China, of course, denies that it’s building a naval base there.
They’re saying they’re not making a partnership in this perfectly strategic military location
for war purposes.
They’re just doing it because, um… hey, what’s that?
But China is funding infrastructure projects there that could serve dual purposes.
China’s logistical plan for its Pacific expansion isn’t limited to just that part
of the world, either.
As a major manufacturing powerhouse, China has its long fingers thoroughly embedded in
world trade, and it’s taking advantage of it.
China has a whole-of-society approach to advancing its agendas, which means that everything civilian
could be used for dual purposes, pretty much at the drop of a hat.
That’s why any talk of even partial Chinese control over ports raises security concerns.
China’s maritime militia is an example of this.
Everything from China’s “scientific ships” to “fishing boats” may technically be
civilian, but they serve to enhance China’s naval capabilities and reach by doing things
like spying or harassing neighbors with plausible deniability.
China could weaponize civilian ports.
Even shipping containers and cranes could pose a threat.
Construction sites might be terrorized by a giant, red menace?
Somebody call Mario.
He’s the only one who can stop them.
This is scary considering that “[China produces] 96 percent of the world’s shipping containers,
more than 80 percent of the world’s ship-to-shore cranes, and own[s] seven of the ten busiest
ports in the world (including Hong Kong).”
With all these cards in its deck, would China be able to pull off a successful military
campaign in the Pacific should things go in that direction?
Close to its shores is one thing, but even with all of this, projecting power further
into the Pacific presents a lot of challenges that the US has already perfected over decades.
While it would be possible for China to use its civilian merchant ships to provide underway
replenishment for Chinese operations in the deep sea, there are some challenges.
The larger China’s navy gets, the more supplies it needs.
Though civilian ships could do the job, the best way to transfer large cargo are dedicated
naval underway replenishment ships, especially when there are less friendly bases nearby.
Australia currently fields one for every 5.5 surface combat ships, and the US has one for
every 6.2.
China knows how important these are, which is why it’s been building its own support
ships.
“China can now field twelve underway replenishment ships, one for every 7.1 ocean-going surface
combatants”
The question is whether China can keep its support fleet safe.
China will have even more lightly armed ships to defend, especially if they’re within
range of US nuclear-powered submarines, stealth fighters, and nearby bases.
And it won’t just be the US that China will have to deal with.
China will also have to contend with US allies.
Potentially even NATO.
It turns out the downside to declaring war on everyone… is you have to go to war with
everyone.
And without even a Starbucks.
But perhaps the greatest threat China faces… is West Taiwan.
That meme is actually from a tweet by our sponsor, Conflict of Nations.
Because in World War III, you never know what’s going to happen.
And when you play Conflict of Nations, well, you’ll see.
No matter which country you represent in the game, it’ll be challenging, fun, and epic.
Remember, click the link below and get 13,000 gold plus 1 month of Premium Subscription
for free.
The offer is only available for 30 days.
Once again, I’m Chris Chappell.
See you next time.