A bit of a reprieve I guess from people that were really kind of on tenterhooks of what the Russians are going to do this week.
Still a lot of questions of how much and how much longer these flows are going to last. But I have to wonder at 40 percent is
that enough to prevent an energy crisis next winter and the resumption of large Robin's stream gas flows. It's definitely
good news for the market. But it's back to back at 20 percent which is which is definitely sufficient to have this storm ahead
of the winter. And what do we expect that if 40 percent capacity continues flows capital continues for the rest of the year.
Demand has to be curtailed by 5 percent. And that could see that could see the stress levels to 67 percent 67 percent. What an
end de facto one which is against Europe dog and off 80 percent 80 percent towards once and or for the winter and 90 percent to
what end of end of the year. So it is not looking really sufficient at the moment. And in case if Russia Russia resumes
its hundred plus then hundred percent capacity that could see those stories never coming back to 80 percent. So it is no
should not funded. Boston is required to avoid any crisis in the energy crisis in Europe. Wow. That's almost that you have to be
at your very best just to avoid it. Just to stay afloat. Just to stay afloat. What are the alternatives though. I mean. Well
that's a big if right. If we get to 100 percent on flows if we don't know where it is. Where does Europe cut its energy. Well
Budapest Andre you realized that it's going to be tough and they have started taking action. So initially European Commission has
asked to do so. Is new member states to reduce their gas consumption by 15 percent. And yesterday the U.N. EU has planned
planned to delist 15 percent of gas consumption from the jump from August this year to March next year by 15 percent. And this
this could be mandated by 26 oxygen diamonds next week next week. If things did you read shock. But did you. It shocked me.
From here onwards because they are seeing the real interest that Russia could halt on this disrupt gas routes to Europe. Funding
is not an option for Russia as well because the VIX do also economically think that their revenues are going to be hurt. So
not completely cut but even a 20 percent capacity. Russian President Putin is also saying that if done is not delivered on
time the no fly list can be reduced to 20 percent of the capacity. And if that deadline is I think that there is a short
term risk that gas prices would rise again. And you're seeing a lot of competition between Asian buyers of
gas with Europe. Right. You have the likes of Japan Taiwan trying to secure supplies before the winter. China though has
been absent from the spot market for some time just because they're going through their own Covid restrictions. I have to
wonder now that we're seeing some economic activity pick up there should I expect a big revival of LNG demand from the
mainland. Yes definitely. The Asian issue biased Guy Johnson and also
realizing that there is going to be a supply risk even Jack Japan used to buy by better of LNG God who is on that Latham
contract basis. But now they have to join from the shock through to this black market which is in. And we're just saying that
it's it's it's it's realizing that the demand is going to be very strong for gas market given that given the situation that
Russia is trying to go up go pipelines supply to Europe. On the other hand China China gas has been because so far and yet
through an air to the bases it has been negative. But but I think this has been a relief for the gas market. But
it's not good. It's likely that heat waves is increasing electricity demand in China. And in the second half the that the
probability is then going to increase. They're going to come out of a Covid Covid situation and things are going down. Life maybe
in another two three months. So if that situation arises that competition is going to be really force for as for LNG God boats
and Europe would have tough time. Yeah. They in fact they did warn about this heat that this heat wave
in several parts of the country. And that goes into your point on coal here. The lessons learned from that coal crunch that
they had and it seems like they're stockpiling coal. Early ISE. Now do you think that trend continues of them producing more
coal. Yes I think that trend is going to continue and this is not a
recent development. If you look back before before Russia invaded Ukraine b CAC energy crisis in last year as well. And
that has seen the cold coal powered global power generation has increased to a record high last year. And according to BP data
if you see it the only increase was nearly 8 percent. And this is going to continue for
this year as well as most of the countries like China. China is increasing its domestic production and they are also restocking
their debt. Also adding new capacity forward for coal fired generation. Europe is doing the same. Germany Italy they are
restocking that old coal fired power plants. So the gone cold demand is going to be stronger. And you know this trend is
likely to continue for quite some time. Just do a bunch of. What is not going to do. Crisis in the region
and for oil prices. I still think some lingering questions about what came out of President Biden's trip to the Middle East. Are
you thinking that OPEC's going to adhere to U.S. requests in terms of boosting capacity. And can they
see OPEC open. Plus has been very resilient in there season. So and yet it's not been the thing that U.S. is good is asking will
or big to increase production. It has. It has been dead since long time.
Dave will be there that there'll be a modest increase. There is no doubt. But. But it will be just symbolic that they are going
to increase it. But it will be wants to keep its coalition very intact. And they don't want to disturb Russia as well. So there
will be a modest modest increase from will be coming coming from the big plus. Not much.