Speaker 1: Let's now go and talk about the Senate. I have to tell you that the Senate
is not looking so bad. Now, we'll look at the general Senate numbers in a moment,
but there are three prominent Republicans who, as of right now, are losing their Senate races.
Let's talk about them one by one, first and foremost. Val Demings, member of Congress,
Democratic member of Congress, former police officer, she has decided to challenge Marco Rubio,
the incumbent Republican Florida senator, for his seat. She's currently winning by four.
This could go in any direction between now and November, but we're only two and a half
months away. And to be such a long time incumbent senator, is Marco Rubio sort of
a celebrity senator to the extent that he ran for president and he's more well-known then,
you know, pick whoever Ben Sasse, I don't know senators whose names I don't even know. And so the
fact that he is down four is not insignificant. As the Hill reports, Val Demings leads Rubio by four,
according to a poll released Tuesday. The poll is from University of North Florida's Public Opinion
Research Lab. It shows Deming Demings at 48. Rubio at 44. 7% saying they would choose someone
else. Now, much of that 7% will ultimately vote for Demings or Rubio. So that is very,
very interesting. Now, a couple of other races that are interesting. There is the Mehmet Oz
versus John Fetterman race in Pennsylvania, in the Senate there. As I've told you before, this
is a race that could decide whether Democrats or Republicans control the Senate after the November
election. This is not a race that is looking very good for Mehmet Oz, despite all of his
personal wealth and cringe ads and everything. The latest Fox News poll has it at Fetterman plus 11.
The Fabrizio Anzalone poll has it at Fetterman plus six, USA Today, Fetterman Plus nine.
Those aren't particularly new polls, but on average right now, according to Real Clear
Politics, Fetterman leading odds by on average 8.7 points. That's good news for Democrats as well.
And then lastly in Georgia, and this is a really scary one because it is way, way, way too close.
In Georgia, incumbent Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock is trying to beat off a challenge from
Herschel Walker. Herschel Walker is the Republican nominee who cannot speak, who cannot put together
a coherent sentence, and yet somehow look at these numbers. WARNOCK Yes, he's leading, but
he is leading by only an average of 4.4 points in that race. Walker cannot think and cannot speak.
He understands not a single political issue, and he's almost within the margin of error. That is
endlessly, endlessly horrifying about what it says about the United States and its electorate. Now,
overall, how are things looking for the fall? If we look at the FiveThirtyEight forecast in the
Senate, Democrats are now up to a 61% chance of holding the Senate. This is a number that started
at roughly 50, 50 months ago. And over time, the scenarios have shifted more and more and more in
favor of Democrats holding the Senate. Now, 61 in 100 doesn't mean Democrats are likely to have 61
seats, not even close. In fact, as you can see on this graphic, the most likely scenarios are
either another 5050 split with Kamala Harris being the tie breaking vote, meaning Democrats control
Democrats having 51 seats or 52 seats. Those are the most likely scenarios, but a 61% chance of
holding the Senate when really Republicans should be taking it, historically speaking,
is not altogether terrible. And then over in the House of Representatives, the odds have improved
just marginally for Democrats, but still roughly a 4 to 1 edge for Republicans. A week or two ago,
I told you that Democrats had only a 20% chance of winning the House that is just barely inched up
flaccid lee to 22% from 20%. So in all likelihood, Democrats will lose the House, but if indeed they
maintain the Senate, they will at least be able to prevent Republicans from doing any serious damage.
Now, also, in terms of the Senate, North Carolina is in play. Florida, rather, FiveThirtyEight
has North Carolina looking similar to Florida in terms of the odds that a Democrat takes that seat.
And we are going to continue following all of these numbers. But the most likely scenario,
the closer we get, the more we can kind of narrow our prediction. The most likely
outcome right now is Democrats hold the Senate, lose the House, and we have just vile obstruction
for the next two years and nothing gets done. And then Republicans use their own obstruction
to try to justify voting for a Republican for president in 2024 because Joe Biden didn't get
anything done for those last two years, thanks to them, of course. So that's where we are right
now. I look forward to taking your questions about the 2022 midterms during our upcoming Member Only
Viewer Townhall. We do many wide open, full audience viewer townhalls. We are holding an
exclusive event on Wednesday, August 31, at 6 p.m. Eastern Time, where members will be able
to call in and chat with me. We will stream the event for everybody, but only members will
participate. If you would like to participate, simply sign up at join Packman dot com