00:00:00:01 - 00:00:23:02 Speaker 1
The odds of you winning a game of Catan is completely predictable.
If you think like a poker player and this information is going to make you
a better guitar player and I'm going to do it all before I roll a 12 roll dice
Now, if you think and play like a poker player, you would know that there is only a 2.38%
chance of me rolling a 12 with these two dice. 00:00:23:10 - 00:00:48:09
Speaker 1 Those are really low odds, and every good poker
player would fold if they had a hand with those odds, unless they could bluff like a demigod.
But how would a poker player know that percentage Well, the really good poker players have those
numbers mesmerized, memorized, or know how to calculate them. But for the rest of us,
normal people that can't do that kind of math, the poker scene made a really smart move by showing us
card percentages on screen during a game. 00:00:48:16 - 00:01:11:07
Speaker 1 This factor alone makes poker a
way better spectator sport than Catan. The thrill for the viewers is knowing exactly who's winning
the game. But then the still random element of the game brings surprise and delight. As a spectator,
you need a really clear baseline explanation of what's going to happen. Otherwise, it's not really
a surprise. It's mostly just confusion. 00:01:11:19 - 00:01:32:20
Speaker 1 If Catan tournaments are smart,
enough to implement this, their viewership would skyrocket and it would look something like this.
You would have each player listed, but their current hit points,
victory points and the development cards they have and the resources they're holding.
And under each of those resources, you would have the percentage chance of them
getting that resource with each dice roll. 00:01:32:20 - 00:01:51:08
Speaker 1 And these numbers would
be updated live as they placed each new settlement or every time the robber moves. It would be super
interesting to spectators and incredibly useful for commentators to see these numbers clearly laid
out. But what about the Catan players? They don't get to see these numbers and have to actually do
the math for themselves in their head. 00:01:52:06 - 00:02:15:06
Speaker 1 But I really
doubt that many Catan players are calculating the odds. They're just happy to assume that Wall will
roll enough times to justify it as their wheat income. Let's check out how that 12 rolls going.
Yikes. Keep going, buddy. I believe in you. Now, I bet you the higher you go up
in Canton rankings, the more likely players are calculating the odds and factoring it
into their decisions. 00:02:15:08 - 00:02:34:12
Speaker 1 But gosh darn it,
that's just too much thinking for me. So I discovered a little shortcut. You see these
pips? These are present. How many ways out of the total? 36 possible combinations. The number
four can come up, which, as you can see, is only three ways, which means that this number only has
an 8.33% chance of being ruled. 00:02:34:16 - 00:02:54:21
Speaker 1 You can see these percentages listed here,
but there is no point memorizing these numbers because they add no practical value to the game.
But my little trick is going to change that. It turns out that the average gimmick often takes
about 72 turns. That is 72 dice rolls which is an incredibly convenient number to do the simple and
useful math we want to do. 00:02:55:04 - 00:03:29:14
Speaker 1 If we assume that
A four B be three times every three turns, then we can also assume that A four B roll six times
every 72 turns. That means you can expect 46 times in an average game at a time. Let's take a look at
the game board of a Guitar National Championship Tournament Finals. And let's see, based on the
players initial settlements, how many of each resources they were expecting throughout a game
Blue ultimately went on to win the game. 00:03:29:15 - 00:03:49:15
Speaker 1 And if you watch my video on how a champion
picks their initial placements, you will know the genius behind the strategy You would know why he
picked these numbers on these resources, which is the perfect time to talk about resource synergy.
If you mismatch the resources you place on, especially with your initial settlements,
you're going to find yourself civilian balance when it comes
to spending your resources. 00:03:49:18 - 00:04:11:07
Speaker 1 You want to always try and get your
brick and wood on a similar production number. The same goes for your orange wheats. This way,
when they roll in the equal frequency, you can spend them and actually do things in the game.
Instead of risking the 16.6% chance of a seven being rolled every turn
and you losing half the cards in your hand assuming you have more than seven cards.
00:04:11:23 - 00:04:33:14 Speaker 1
Another way to think about it is that you should play with the expectation of a seven being rolled
at least once every six turns. But if you have good resource synergy, you should be able to
spend at least every other turn which will put you out of the danger zone. Speaking of danger zone,
if you find yourself with a robber on your highest production hacks, then that quick math you did at
the start of the game is pretty much useless. 00:04:33:15 - 00:05:03:16
Speaker 1 This is where
investing and development cards comes in handy. And since you have a 56%
chance of drawing a night, those are really good odds that you can save your resource production
three resources for a development card to save ten resources worth of production
is well worth it, and as a bonus, you'll be slowing your opponent's resource production to
But even with this handy trick, you still might be unsure of how to place your initial settlements,
which is why you should watch this video where the Guitar National Champion from earlier explains how
you decided where to place. 00:05:03:17 - 00:05:07:15
Speaker 1 And if you don't watch that video,
you'll still be waiting for that wealth to be rolled.