Let me throw a question at you, how many of you remember seeing this meme?
Wicked tongues say that it is Sergei Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, trying to fly
himself to Belgrade after the NATO countries surrounding Serbia did not authorize his plane
to pass through their airspace.
N1 (NATO nations block Russian envoy's plane from Serbia visit – AP)
Evidently, Lavrov could not make it to Belgrade, but perhaps this detail is the least important
aspect in this whole story.
The important thing has to do with another question: why on earth would a country like
Serbia, which is one of the seven official applicants to join the European Union, along
with Moldova and Ukraine, plan to receive the Russian Foreign Minister with full honors
in the midst of the current political-military situation and in the midst of Russia's invasion
of Ukraine?
Those of you who have seen our last video on Serbia and the history of Yugoslavia will
already know what we are talking about.
Because in the current context, not everything is as simple as establishing a sharp division
between two blocs: pro-Western countries and pro-Russian countries.
In fact, the case of Serbia brings us face to face with another reality: the third way.
C1 ("Serbia is proud that it is not part of the anti-Russian hysteria."
– Aleksandar Vulin, Serbian interior minister)
N2 (Serbia Ignores EU Sanctions, Secures Gas Deal With Putin – VOA)
C2 (29 May 2022 – "It's the most favorable price in Europe.
We will sign a three-year contract, and tomorrow or the day after tomorrow we will discuss
the quantities of gas.
[...] Serbia needs larger quantities of gas, but if I may say so, we will have a safe winter,
and further talks will determine how much gas will cost us."
– Aleksandar Vučić, President of Serbia)
Taking all this into account, anyone would think that the Serbian position is determined
solely and exclusively by a question of money: that is, for example, to throw itself into
the arms of the Kremlin to escape the escalation of oil and gas prices that is being experienced
at the international level.
However, although it is true that money always has an influence, on this occasion it is not
so easy to explain.
In this video we are going to tell you why the largest republic that emerged from the
disintegration of the former Yugoslavia still wants to get along with Russia today despite
the war in Ukraine and despite its desire to join the EU.
So...
Let's get started.
Serbia has a rather agitated history with respect to everything we usually identify
with the West or at least with the Atlantic axis.
Of course, we have already covered many details about this issue and about the formation of
today's Serbia in a recent video that I’ll link for you in the description.
But, for those of you who haven't seen it yet, here is a brief summary:
The peak in the poor relations between Serbia, the United States and the rest of the Atlantic
allies came in 1999, when NATO planes bombed military and government positions throughout
Serbia, including, of course, its capital, Belgrade, for almost three months.
NATO's intervention was aimed at stopping the crimes against humanity that were being
committed in the context of the conflict between the former Federal Republic of Yugoslavia
and ethnic Albanian independence fighters from Kosovo.
Specifically, we are talking about an attempt at ethnic cleansing against ethnic Albanian
minorities.
Well, the point is that even though Serbian politics have changed a lot since then, these
kinds of historical events often leave behind an important mark.
In this case, for instance, they explain why a large part of Serbian society is still very
suspicious of NATO itself and, in general, of anything to do with the Western community.
And it also explains Russia's continuing popularity among Serbs.
After all, Moscow positioned itself on the Yugoslav side in international institutions.
For example, in a past Gallup poll conducted in 2016, more than 60% of Serbs said they
still perceived NATO as a threat.
This was in fact one of the worst ratings the North Atlantic Treaty Organization got
in any Central and Eastern European country.
In that same survey, by the way, the country with the best opinion of NATO was none other
than...
Surprise Surprise!
Kosovo.
But that's not all.
Serbia also ranks at the bottom of Europe in terms of popular support for its membership
in the European Union.
In 2019 less than half of Serbs were in favor of belonging to the EU club and around 60%
didn’t trust European institutions.
And all this despite the fact that the same European Union has given Serbia more than
2.8 billion euros , that’s around $2.96 billion in development aid in recent years.
Could this be an example of how the European institutions spend money without any rhyme
or reason?
I don't know, we'll leave it at that.
And that’s not including other individual aid provided by other member countries, because
in that case the amount is practically doubled.
And yes, in case anyone is wondering, yes, the European Union is by far the biggest financial
contributor to Serbia.
Of course if you ask Serbs themselves only 3 out of 10 have that impression.
And the rest?
Well, most of them will tell you Russia.
Why?
Well, you will find out in the course of this video.
The most curious thing of all however is that historical quarrels are far from being the
main reason for Belgrade's equidistance between Brussels and Moscow.
Why hasn't Serbia completed its integration into the European Union, why is it not hurrying
to do so?
Well, VisualPolitik fans, the answer is simple: its lack of interest in undertaking the reforms
demanded by Brussels.
Belgrade is betting on extending its current situation as long as possible, that is, to
be outside, but in a certain way, inside the Union.
But why this tug-of-war with the European Union?
If Serbian society is so distrustful of the West, why do they maintain their candidacy
to join the community club?
What really explains the ties between Russia and Serbia?
These are important questions for one of the most unknown countries in Europe.
So let's find out.
T1 (PLAYING WITH FEELINGS)
If there is one thing that the Russians have been able to exploit first since the disintegration
of Yugoslavia and later after the subsequent formation of Serbia as the independent State
we know today, it has been the so-called "Slavic brotherhood".
A brotherhood that encompasses history, politics and even religious identity.
Without digging too deep there is the case of the religious alliance between the Moscow
Patriarchate, that is, the Russian Orthodox Church, and that of Serbia.
An alliance that seeks to gain influence both inside and outside these two countries.
For example, for years the Moscow Patriarchate and the Serbian Patriarchate have together
been trying to influence the society and government of Montenegro, a country that became independent
from Serbia in 2006.
Check it out.
In Montenegro, a country that is somewhat more pro-Western than Serbia, more than 60%
of the population claims to be followers of the Serbian Orthodox Church.
Well, in Montenegro, the Serbian Orthodox Church takes advantage of its large following
to actively participate in the political life of the country, organizing, participating
and promoting political rallies and protests, such as demonstrations against NATO or Western
institutions and way of life.
N3 (Montenegro Anti-NATO Activists Stage New Year Party.
The pro-Russian opposition is holding an anti-NATO party in the capital Podgorica [...] with
the blessing of the Serbian Orthodox Church in Montenegro.
– Balkan Insight)
But religion is only one of the means Putin's Russia has found to influence Serbian society
and the area of influence of this country.
Another example is the media.
Russia has invested heavily in the Serbian media and even has free publications.
Media outlets that support local leaders in exchange for disseminating Moscow's own political
agenda.
In fact, this situation reaches such a point that talking about Serbian media and Russian
media is basically like talking about the same thing.
N4("Belgrade officially proclaims EU accession is a priority, but it has consistently shied
away from European policies going against Russian interests while pro-government media
echo the fierce messages coming from the Kremlin."
– France24)
But...
Of course, if there is one issue that Russia knows still stings in Serbian society and
that it can use to alienate Serbs from Western influence, it is none other than Kosovo.
Kosovo is partially recognized by the international community as an independent State, but Russia
not only does not recognize it, but when it comes to this territory Moscow always takes
the Serbian side in international organizations.
On the other hand, the European Union's position is to recognize Kosovo's independence and
make Belgrade yield.
In fact, one of the conditions for accession to the EU Community club is precisely that
Belgrade should abandon its belligerence towards Kosovo and launch a process of normalization
of bilateral relations.
Something that neither the government nor Serbian society itself seems willing to do.
And so Russia has become the major supporter of Serbian interests in international institutions.
Then there is one aspect that may surprise you, and not just a little, in Serbia’s
strategic ambiguity: I am referring to the military field.
Serbia is a country that belongs neither to NATO nor to its Russian counterpart, the Collective
Security Treaty Organization or CSTO, but instead actively participates with these two
organizations at the same time.
Serbia is an observer State of the russophile alliance, and at the same time a member of
NATO's Partnership for Peace program, and in fact regularly participates in military
exercises of these two organizations.
Let's say that neutrality – or rather ambiguity – in the military field is something particularly
important for Belgrade.
C3("We will not change our policy toward Russia.
We remain in brotherly relations, we will not change policy, we will not join NATO or
CSTO.
[...] Serbia has its own army to protect its land and sky."
– Aleksandar Vučić, President of Serbia)
Those of you who saw the previous video will already know that between 2015 and 2021 the
Serbian government boosted its military budget by more than 70%, so the president's words
don't exactly sound like a bluff.
Serbia is bullheaded about being able to guarantee its own sovereignty.
After all, we are talking about a position, a bet on ambiguity that has not exactly gone
badly for them.
Listen up.
T2 (THE SERBIAN BRIDGE)
The official acceptance of a country's candidacy to join the European Union brings its own
significant advantages, both economically and in terms of free movement of people.
And the case of Serbia is obviously no exception.
We are talking about advantages such as visa exemption for travel, direct aid packages
and preferential access to the EU market without tariffs or over-regulation and barriers for
a lot of products.
Since 2013, thanks to the Stabilization and Association Agreement with the European Union,
a pre-accession status, Serbia has virtually free access to the EU market.
This agreement has caused Serbia's exports to the EU to soar, and they currently account
for between 58 and 68 percent of all the country's foreign sales, depending on the year.
What’s more, the EU bloc countries are also the largest investors in the Serbian economy.
Since 2010 they account for 60-80% of all Foreign Direct Investment entering the country
each year.
In short, a growing interconnectedness that has suited the Serbian economy very well.
Of course, with this data in mind, you might imagine that in Belgrade they are crazy to
finish integrating into the European Union as soon as possible, right?
Well...
No, not really.
In fact, in the annual reports that Brussels makes to inform about the progress of the
economic, political and legislative reforms that Serbia has to carry out in view of its
membership to the EU, what is most often repeated is the expression "limited progress".
This is the point that differentiates Serbia from the other Balkan countries that have
already joined the EU or are on the way to joining it soon: we are talking about the
economic partnership with Russia and Russia's allies.
In addition to maintaining a Stabilization and Association Agreement with the EU, Serbia
also has preferential market access status to the Eurasian Economic Union, the Moscow-led
economic bloc that includes Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.
This market is obviously much, much smaller than the EU market, but it also has an advantage:
preferential access to the energy sector and raw materials.
And not only that.
Another important benefit for Belgrade is that many Western companies and investors
have opted precisely for Serbia being able to take advantage of its free access to both
the European market and the Eurasian Union market.
In this way the country functions as a kind of bridge between the two blocs, which has
benefited the otherwise ailing national economy.
Western and Russian companies such as Microsoft, Lukoil, Coca-Cola, Siemens and FIAT have significant
investments for taking advantage of the Serbian economic bridge between the EU, Russia and
Russia’s zone of influence.
And of course, another reason why it has been very convenient for Serbia to get along with
Moscow and not get into the Kremlin’s bad books has been its very high dependence on
Russia in terms of energy.
If Germany's figures are already scandalous, Serbia's are even more so.
In 2020, Serbian natural gas imports from Russia accounted for 64% of the total, and
in the case of crude oil and LPG even more.
We’re talking about more than 75% of Serbia's energy imports.
This is a long-standing situation that the United States has repeatedly warned about:
N5(September 9th 2016 – US urges Serbia, Slovenia to diversify their energy sources
– Reuters)
To make matters worse, the main Serbian oil company, NIS, is controlled by Russia's Gazprom
Neft, which owns 56.15% of its shares.
Because if the Russians have made any effort at all, it has been precisely to tie up the
Serbian energy sector.
Surely, this won’t surprise you.
And in total, although far behind the European Union, Russia is the second largest investor
in the country.
In short, Belgrade is in no hurry to carry out all the reforms required by Brussels to
become a full member of the EU.
After all, it already enjoys many of the benefits of the common market.
And of course, EU membership would mean putting an end to that geopolitical point-scoring
position that Belgrade is so interested in.
Of course, now the international sanctions and the impact they are likely to have on
the Russian economy could completely change these plans and make Serbia get its act together
to join the European Union once and for all.
Be that as it may, the deep cultural, historical, political and economic ties between Serbia
and Russia sow doubt as to whether Serbia may end up becoming a kind of Trojan horse.
This is a fear that also seems to be growing in Brussels.
But having reached this point, it's your turn: do you think Serbia will eventually join the
European Union?
What do you think of Belgrade's choice to maintain its friendly position with the Kremlin
despite Russia's invasion of Ukraine?
Leave us your opinion here below, in the comments, and if you liked this video don't forget to
like and subscribe to our channel.
Once again, thank you for being there.
All the best and see you next time.