struck across Ukraine today, the second nationwide barrage in as
many days. The renewed Russian campaign, which is largely targeting
civilians, drew condemnation from the G seven nations led by the
U. S.
Despite the frenzied Russian bombing. In an interview with CNN President
Biden said Russian President Vladimir Putin is a quote rational actor
who has miscalculated significantly, Nick Schifrin looks at Putin's
calculations and the carnage he continues to inflict.
In the crumpled heap of bricks that was once a home. There's horror
and heartbreak. Residents of the eastern city of Slovyansk say a
Russian rocket buried their neighbors as they slept
still alive. She was screaming Help! Block lost their homes. 12 year
old lost his parents. Whose God, punish all those who should be cursed.
Why did this happen? A boy has been left an orphan.
This morning, a dozen Russian missiles hit the southeastern city
of Eurasia. This used to be a dealership. Now all the cars are destroyed.
President Vladimir Zelensky used Russian cruise missile attacks like
this to ask the G seven leading industrialized democracies today
for Western air defense. The first point is defense support and air
shield for Ukraine when Ukraine receives a sufficient quantity of
modern and effective air defense systems, the key element of Russia's
terror
Rocket strikes will cease to work.
But the strikes and the mass graves that continue to be found in
formerly occupied Ukraine are exactly what some in Russia are demanding.
The sooner we occupy the territory we need, the sooner they'll come
to their senses on Russian TV. Pro Kremlin politicians and officials
call for the Russian military to escalate
today We've come too close to the edge beyond it is the cliff only
together only with our president. If the motherland calls us and
hands us a machine.
In gun. We will take a machine gun and complete the task. That wasn't
the response just two weeks ago when Ukrainian soldiers ripped through
Russian lines and flags and liberated cities from Russian occupiers.
At that point, the same Kremlin allies voiced rare criticism.
Noah. People know our people are not stupid. They see that authorities
don't want to tell them even part of the truth. Even one of the Kremlin
staunchest supporters, Chechen strongman Ramzan Kadyrov has been
close to Putin for almost 20 years, criticized the Russian commander
who retreated from eastern Ukraine. If it was up to me, Kadyrov wrote.
I would send them with a rifle to the front in order to cleanse his
shame in blood.
But after Monday's strikes, one of the largest Russian barrages of
the war, Kadyrov wrote. Now I am 100% satisfied with the special
military operational
And today, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visited some of the 300,000
recruits from the Kremlin hopes will soon be ready to deploy to the
front.
And for more on Russia's strategy and whether military decision making
his influenced by public criticism, We get two views. Andrea Kendall
Taylor is a former senior intelligence official who focused on Russia
and Eurasia. She's now at the center for a new American security,
a bipartisan national security and defense policy think tank. And
Amy Knight has written six books about Russian history and politics.
Her most recent is orders to kill the Putin regime and political
murder. Thank you very much welcome Both of you to the new
Is our Andrea Kendall Taylor. Let me start with you. How much pressure
do you believe Putin. Putin was on domestically to escalate after
battlefield losses in eastern Ukraine and this weekend's attack on
the bridge linking Russia to occupied Crimea.
My sense is that he is under increasing pressure from the hardline
faction within inside Russia, and I see that for a couple of reasons.
First and foremost are the strikes that we saw yesterday and today.
My sense is that this is something that the hardline factions have
been calling on for some time, and their view of victory in this
war is to terrorize Ukrainians in order to compel them to concede.
I think they misread the Ukrainian public. But I do think that these
attacks reflect their growing ascendancy inside the Kremlin. And
I also say that because of the appointment of the new field commander
of the army again, this is someone that these hardline factions have
been calling on for some time they wanted to see these changes in
the top brass.
So once again, I do think that Putin's decisions are increasingly
being shaped and affected by this very vocal hardline faction within
the Kremlin
night. Is there a hardline faction within the Kremlin and are they
influencing Putin?
Yes, there is a hardline faction. But I think Putin is the leader
of this hardline faction. I don't think he needs any kind of encouragement
to do what he's doing. He's simply has been driven into a corner
and he doesn't have a choice and people like candy ear off the Chechen
leader and precaution. Uh, the head of the Wagner group
But they're they're hardliners who are being very outspoken and very
critical of Russian generals. But at the same time, they are not
independent political forces. They have long been known to be basically
puppets of Putin, so I think they're they're acting as Putin's mouthpiece,
and he wants to deflect blame from himself for the failure of what's
happening in Ukraine.
Andrew scandalous Heller. What about that? These hardline figures
are not independent and are, in fact, puppets, says Amy Knight just
said, still think that there was those folks are still to the right
of Putin. My sense of what Putin is trying to accomplish with this
war is to prolong the conflict to drag it out.
I think Putin's preference wouldn't have been to escalate so significantly
if he had the choice. I agree with Amy. He is running out of choices
on the battlefield, and that paints him into a corner and it limits
his options. But my sense of what Putin is playing for is a long
drawn out war. I think he wants to try to wait the West out. He hopes
that we will lose interest in this conflict that our publics over
long cold winters will grow impatient. Um and so my senses again
that he
Probably would have preferred a more gradual, less escalatory response
to the strike on the Kerch Strait Bridge. Do you believe that there
are some in the military and among the elites who are unhappy with
the way this war is going?
I do I. First of all the the the invasion itself has turned out to
be a disaster for the military. They had this massive mobilization,
a modernization program, and the Kremlin spent billions on it. And
basically the Russian military had such little success and I think,
in part
It's because they were led into a battle that they really couldn't
win. They were fighting on Ukrainian territory. Their troops have
not had the same kind of high morale that Ukrainian troops have had.
I think that for the military they feel recently, like you know,
they they've just been fighting, uh, with with very little resources,
so I think there's a lot of unhappiness.
And I think in general among the political elite, there is a lot
of unhappiness with this war. Kendall Taylor of the obvious question
after that is bottom line. How secure is Putin's grip on power? Do
you believe
Oh, I think it's so hard to judge the timing of the fall of any authoritarian
leader spent almost a decade in the U. S intelligence community,
and I think the best that we can do is to warn that the conditions
for his ouster are improving, meaning the fodder is ever dryer for
his departure. We see not just the unhappiness amongst the hardline
faction that we were talking about. But certainly in the wake of
the mobilization, Putin has awakened Russian society.
I itty. Hundreds of thousands of Russians have left the country.
Um up Until this point in the war, Putin has tried very hard to portray
a sense of normalcy.
But by mobilizing the public again, he's wake awakened them to the
brutality and the reality of this war. And so I think that public
discontent is also growing. Of course, it's hard to see and these
highly repressive, authoritarian regime, so I always say that authoritarian
regimes are stable until they aren't and I think that's where we
are with Putin Night is their increasing discontent. Can we even
measure it?
Well, Jenny all bad. So Russian journalist estimated that about 70%
of the political elite is very unhappy with Mr Putin and also the
military elite and and as far as the the people the population at
large, I agree that there is a growing dissatisfaction.
It's going to. It's going to take awhile, though, before there is
any real public mobilization, And I think one thing is that Putin
may not. It may not be enough for them to conscript 300,000 soldiers.
It may be that they'll have to extend that mobilization to a wider
group.
And then the more people the more servicemen who were killed. The
more conscripts that are called up the it's going to be much, much
harder for Putin to maintain any kind of, um, public support.
And finally let's turn to international pressure. U. S. Officials
believe that Putin's made some moves that we've been talking about
mobilization annexation. This escalation in part because of international
criticism from Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian President
Narendra Modi. In the last few weeks. Today we saw Putin with the
leader of the US who, of course, just a few days ago agreed to a
major cut in oil production. So Andrea Kendall Taylor, do you believe
that Putin is under pressure International
Nationally and is as isolated as the U. S believes he is.
He's not as isolated as we all would hope videos and there still
are many offensive in countries like China and India. As you mentioned
We do see those countries gradually becoming a bit more critical
of the Kremlin. In the wake of these very brutal attacks. Both the
Chinese and Indian governments called for more calm, although they
fell short of directly criticizing Putin. So I think he is a attuned
to the fact that perhaps as the war continues that Russia's position
vis a vis a vis countries is declining. I think he's worried that
these
Appear. Countries will look at him as a declining power that his
position relative to those countries as falling.
And so I do agree that part of the escalation could have been in
part to demonstrate to these leaders that he still has a strong leader
who is worthy of their partnership. Amy Knight does Putin worried
that he's a declining power among the countries he considers his
partners? I think he definitely is, and I don't think that that the
recent Russian actions
Have have have ensured that he has any better relations with other
China or India. I also think that these threats of nuclear retaliation
are something that do not go go down well with the Chinese and and
the Indian leadership. So I think Putin is is walking a very careful
balancing line. And I don't necessarily think that showing further,
um outrageous acts of aggression like the attacks that we've
I mean, uh, yesterday and today are really a show of strength to
the Chinese government, For example, I think it's more
They realized that that Mr Putin is getting desperate.
Amy Knight, Andrew Kendall Taylor. Thank you very much to you both.