On February 24th, 2022 Vladimir Putin launched an invasion of Ukraine.
His first attacks were west out of the separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, quickly followed
by a thrust south from Belarus towards Kyiv.
Russia's much-vaunted paratroopers and air assault forces attempted several landings
outside of Kyiv but were repelled and failed in their mission.
The plan to quickly take Kyiv by flying reinforcements directly into major air fields outside of
the city was immediately canceled.
Over the next month troops pushed north out of Russian-occupied Crimea in an attempt to
link up with assaults out of Luhansk and Donetsk.
An amphibious invasion of Odessa was greatly feared, but Ukrainian resistance was much
stiffer than expected and the invasion was canceled.
In the north of the country, the Kyiv incursion was met with fierce resistance and soon ran
into serious logistics problems.
Inevitably, Russian forces were forced to flee back to Belarus, having failed to take
Ukraine's capital.
Similar incursions along the northern border east of Kyiv were also repulsed.
Russia moved its defeated troops from the Kyiv assault to the east where the war was
faring better for them.
Now though Russian forces have reached a sort of stalemate, and the conflict has largely
frozen with only minor advancements by either side.
Russia however has continued to suffer catastrophic defeats, including the near-total defeat of
an entire Battalion Tactical Group outside of Bilohorivka thanks to a well-planned Ukrainian
ambush.
Kherson, which has been firmly in Russian hands for weeks, is soon to be in dispute
with Ukrainian forces making serious pushes towards the city.
What Ukraine does when the war is over depends on how the next few months of the war play
out.
There are two probable scenarios for Ukraine's future, and one nightmare scenario that is
more frighteningly real than you might realize.
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In the first scenario, Russian forces successfully recoup their losses and press their great
numbers advantage.
By flooding the nation with an additional two dozen Battalion Tactical Groups and perhaps
enacting general mobilization, Russia begins to put serious pressure on Ukraine's military.
Inevitably, the massive Russian war machine slowly- but painfully- crushes all resistance
before it.
Ukrainian President Vladimyr Zelensky now has two choices.
First, he can surrender when it becomes clear that further resistance is futile.
This will inevitably come at the cost of his own Presidency, as the Kremlin will not accept
any surrender from Ukraine that doesn't involve the removal of Zelensky as a pre-condition.
This scenario is unlikely, as it would require Russia to generate a significant amount of
momentum that it's been unable to yet generate.
Only if Russian forces are making advances of several miles or more a day would continued
resistance seem futile to Ukrainian defenders.
Zelensky would thus see further resistance as simply a waste of his military's lives-
but luckily for Ukraine, this seems completely impossible.
For starters, Ukraine has a lot of territory to trade for time.
This should be a strategy familiar to the Russians, as it's exactly what they did in
the war against Germany, trading miles upon miles of territory in exchange for the time
to build up proper defenses.
Russia however is even more vulnerable to a territory-for-time strategy than Germany
was, as their logistics were already terrible to begin with, and only worsened with the
destruction of hundreds of cargo and transport trucks by the Ukrainians and foreign volunteers
fighting with them.
Drawing Russian forces deep into Ukrainian territory will result in overstretched supply
lines and open up opportunities elsewhere for Ukraine to counterattack.
Russian losses are severe after only three months of fighting, with an estimated 25%
of all combat personnel from the initial invasion force now either killed or too wounded to
continue fighting.
Tank and armored vehicle losses for Russia are so heavy that it's estimated it'll take
2 years to replenish them at this point- and the losses continue to mount.
In short, Russia cannot realistically generate the momentum necessary for forcing an early
surrender by Zelensky, and pumping thousands of freshly mobilized conscripts into the conflict
will in all likelihood only hurt the Russian cause rather than help it.
So we are rating an early surrender by Zelensky a very low probability as of May 11th, 2022.
President Zelensky's second choice is to fight Russia to a 'slowly losing standstill'.
What we mean by this is that the front lines will remain largely frozen, but with tiny,
incremental gains by Russian forces over time.
As a matter of fact, that seems to be the nature of the conflict right now, with Russia
being hammered badly and winning only small gains- though the Ukrainians themselves have
managed their own small gains, so we are not quite yet at this scenario.
However, inevitably it might become clear that Russia simply cannot be defeated by Ukraine,
and Zelensky's second choice is to negotiate a peace with special conditions with Russia.
This will likely mean that Ukraine gives up much of its territory in the Donbas region,
which is largely under Russian control today, and gives up its strategic ports along the
Sea of Azov.
Crimea is guaranteed to remain in Russian hands, and the Sea of Azov now becomes a Russian
lake fully under its control.
Initially, Vladimir Putin claimed that he had no intention of occupying Ukraine.
However, not only is Putin a proven liar, but Russian forces have been well documented
doing everything they can to quickly 'Russify' occupied territories.
They have replaced Ukrainian street and building signs with their Russian counterparts, instituted
provisional governments, ensured the pensions of elderly Ukrainians, and introduced the
Russian ruble as the official currency.
All this has been done to purposefully entrench Russian culture inside of Ukraine itself,
in preparation for their full adoption into the Russian fold.
Currently, Ukraine is likely unable to fully eject Russian forces from its territory, which
means that this is the most likely scenario.
While Ukraine is being armed and supplied by the west, it is not being given the heavy
equipment necessary for large offensive operations against Russian forces.
If however the conflict continues to rage for a year or more, this may change- as it
takes months to train Ukrainian crews to operate Western tanks or aircraft, and also to set
up the supply chains and logistics hubs needed to operate them inside Ukraine.
Even then, arming Ukraine at a large scale with Western heavy equipment is incredibly
unlikely unless this war drags on for years and becomes another decade-long debacle for
Russia, much like Afghanistan was to the Soviet Union, and later the United States.
It's unlikely then that Ukraine will be able to successfully repel Russia's invasion and
push them back to their own borders, though Ukraine could instead make the conflict so
painful for Russia that it agrees to a settled peace, with the currently occupied territories
part of the cost of continued Ukrainian independence.
In this case, without being able to threaten Kyiv, it's highly unlikely that Russia also
presses for the removal of President Zelensky, and Ukraine will be able to remain largely
free to dictate its own course.
It is however very likely that peace in either of these two scenarios come with the condition
that Ukraine remain committed to absolute neutrality, and repeals its constitutional
amendment which enshrines NATO membership directly into the constitution of the country.
Depending on how bad the war goes for Ukraine in the long run, additional concessions may
have to be given, including the establishment of some form of veto power by Russia over
internal Ukrainian matters.
In essence, a return to the era of the Soviet Union.
The second possible scenario for Ukraine is a total military defeat of Russia, and the
expulsion of Russian invading forces back to the breakaway regions of Luhansk and Donetsk.
Given what we've just discussed, this seems like the far least likely of the two scenarios-
but certain key facts could dramatically alter the course of this war.
The first and likely most important fact is that Russia is taking completely unsustainable
losses in the conflict.
At current rate of personnel and equipment loss, Russia will have lost the equivalent
of its entire invasion force within six more months- an absolute military catastrophe for
Russia which would take decades to recover from.
These losses are having a dramatic follow-on effect though, as reports from all across
the front paint a picture of severely demoralized Russian troops.
Demoralized troops are a massive liability in war and the fact that Russia is facing
such a significant morale problem, that is fed by near daily large scale losses, puts
the fighting ability of the Russian military in serious jeopardy.
Those losses are inevitably being filled with more and more conscripts as the pool of professional
volunteers runs low, and conscripts bring even further weak morale to units already
suffering from a borderline moral crisis.
But if Russia's only problem was morale, it would count itself lucky, because a big reason
for the low morale and high casualties is Russia's sheer ineptitude.
The Russian military was greatly feared prior to the conflict, with news agencies around
the world commenting on the massive modernization effort Russia undertook over the last two
decades.
To show off its capabilities, Russia put on annual military exercises involving tens of
thousands of troops- all meant to showcase Russian firepower to NATO observers.
And the conclusions were grim: Russia had become extremely adept at combined arms maneuvers,
and was a modern military to be feared.
Day 1 of the invasion completely changed all of that, and since then the Russian military
has exposed that it has always been a paper tiger.
Troops routinely show little discipline and even less training, as they scatter and panic
during ambushes instead of fighting back or conducting flank assaults to relieve pressure
on the ambush kill zone.
Air defense batteries are destroyed on the ground by Ukrainian jets and drones because
their operators never bothered to turn their air defense radars on.
The Russian military is so inept that Ukraine has even managed to strike deep inside Russia
with its own attack helicopters, completely to the surprise of any air defense radar operators.
It's not just that Russian troops are poorly trained, it's that Russia is simply bad at
war.
Those exercises which showed off their great combined arms skills were clearly highly scripted,
because inside of Ukraine under actual enemy fire, Russia has yet to conduct a satisfactory
combined arms operation.
In the realm of battlefield logistics, Russia has proven itself to be worse than a novice,
as fundamentally its battalion tactical groups simply don't have enough trucks for proper
resupply.
Russian weapon stockpiles have also run dangerously low of precision munitions, to the point that
by the start of May we were seeing heavy use of unguided bombs in attacks that once used
precision munitions.
It's now believed that Russia's remaining reserves are a fraction their original size,
and dedicated to supporting potential contingency operations in case of war against NATO.
That means they can't be used in Ukraine or else Russia faces being completely unprepared
to fight NATO armies.
There are even reports that Russia is resorting to the use of mothballed 1960s missiles for
long-range strikes, with weapons that are potentially as dangerous to the Russians launching
them as they are to whoever is on the other end of these poorly guided munitions.
The tale of the tape adds up to this: Russia is entering a serious crisis that could blossom
into full-blown catastrophe if the situation on the ground doesn't change dramatically.
Unlike western nations, Russia can't rebuild its precision weapon stockpiles because of
global sanctions, as the electronic components it relies on are built in places like Taiwan.
This leaves it with only one choice- return to fighting a 20th century conflict much like
during the World War II era, with comparable equipment.
Yet while Ukraine is suffering its own heavy losses, it is being steadily resupplied by
the west.
If resupply of heavy equipment continues, and possibly even the transfer of western
hardware like the M1 Abrams tank, in six months Russia could find itself trying to throw 20th
century weapons at 21st century Ukrainian threats.
It's not completely inconceivable then that the problems of bad morale, terrible training
and doctrine, and a lack of modern equipment leaves the Russians to be overwhelmed by Ukrainian
forces equipped with superior Western technologies.
A morale crisis, similar to the 1917 crisis that resulted in Russia leaving the First
World War, could prompt a wide scale defeat of Russia inside Ukraine, and with it a catastrophic
political upheaval for Putin that will likely end up with him in prison or more likely,
dead.
But it's exactly the flooding of Ukraine with western arms that could lead to our third
nightmare scenario- and one that's more probable than you think.
If Russia begins to suffer serious defeats, or if Ukraine begins to receive large shipments
of heavy western equipment, it may leave Putin with only one choice: the use of weapons of
mass destruction.
Already Russia has laid down the groundwork for justifying the use of chemical weapons,
as it has used its state propaganda arm to spew a steady stream of lies claiming that
Ukrainians have several bio and chemical weapons labs in the country being funded by the United
States.
Some Russian state news outlets even claim that Ukrainian forces, or mercenaries hired
by the US, have already carried out small-scale attacks chemical attacks.
This is merely the beginning of a false-flag attack staged by Russia to justify the use
of chemical weapons against stubborn Ukrainian defenders that it's so far failed to dislodge
with conventional means.
Russia has little to fear from using these weapons too, as Ukraine is unable to respond
in kind as it has no WMDs of its own.
We could see widespread chemical attacks across the eastern front, followed by massive assaults
against severely weakened Ukrainian forces.
However, American president Joe Biden has warned that this is a line in the sand for
him, and that if Russia were to use WMDs inside of Ukraine, the United States would respond
“appropriately”.
The interpretation of this response has been purposefully left vague, but it could mean
everything from American strikes using chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons against Russian
forces inside Ukraine, to directly supplying Ukraine with its own chemical or biological
weapons.
Either move would turn Ukraine into a hellscape reminiscent of 1916's central Europe, only
at a far greater magnitude due to the increased lethality of modern chemical and biological
weapons.
Should Putin step across the line to the use of nuclear weapons, Ukraine might find large
swathes of its territory irradiated after even only a limited exchange of nuclear weapons.
This naturally carries with it the risk of escalation as Russia and NATO turn their nuclear
weapons on each other instead, prompting what might be the final human conflict in history.
Whatever path Ukraine's future takes it's certain that it will take years, if not decades
to recover from this war.
Many cities are partially or largely destroyed after indiscriminate Russian barrages purposefully
targeting civilians, and these will take incredible effort and resources to rebuild.
Yet Europe rebuilt from two world wars, and the United States is committed to Ukraine
for the long-term.
We will likely see a 21st century Marshall Plan after the liberation of Ukraine, financed
in large part by the United States, and in time the nation will heal.
However, in what fashion Ukraine survives as a state- free, or Soviet-style client-
remains to be seen.
As does just how much of its territory it will get to keep intact.
Now go see What's Wrong With The Russian Military, or click this other video instead!