There is a struggle facing EVs. There is a certain exponential tipping point however,
that when you get past said struggle, it becomes amazing. The struggle EVs have, that I am
referring to, is the batteries just weigh so much. And that the more the car weighs,
well... then the more batteries you need. It's a bit of a vicious circle. Now because
this is so important with EVs, this is why we see Tesla doing such amazing jobs with
drag co-efficients. Because it all makes a difference. You think the cybertruck Vault
is cool, with the retractable roof. Well that's for aerodynamics too. If you have an open
bed in a pick up truck, then it acts as a sail, slowing the car down. There's a reason
the cybertruck looks how it does. Because the future is electric, and this is what electric
cars look like. Why do they look like this? Because of drag co-efficient. You can try
and make an electric pick up truck look like an internal combustion one, but there's a
big reason the cybertruck looks that much different. Pickup trucks are big, and heavy,
if it is not aerodynamic, then it's range will suffer. But to fix that, you can add
more batteries. But then the weight has increased, so you need to add some more batteries again.
In the end you are stuck with these heavy cars, that don't have much range. Except they
still have large batteries, which is a very high cost. But a pickup truck is big, at least
you can fit a lot of batteries in there. But it makes it cost a lot. Which is why Ford
are likely going to lose money on most of their F-150 lightning sales. But I dont think
they can make them fast enough to meet demand anyway. At least for the low cost models.
But what have Tesla done with their weight saving techniques. Tesla realize the key is,
to get the weight of the car as light as possible, due to these heavy battery packs. Tesla do
what they can at the battery level to save weight, but it doesn't stop there. Making
structural battery packs, and die cast molds for the cars, and many other ways of saving
weight as much as possible. It all adds up
Of course there have been massive weight savings at the 4680 battery level. Considering the
battery makes up about 1/3 of the weight of the car, it makes more than sense to do whatever
is possible to reduce weight here. We look forward to seeing just how much weight saving
we will see from the 4680 batteries. I think the best indication will be to compare the
Fremont Model Y specs with the Berlin or Texas Model Ys. Compare the weight and the kWh of
the vehicles. This will be very interesting. As Tesla transitions into the next expansion
of operation, they are not going to be able to do it all, without giving away some secrets,
like just how good these 4680 batteries are. Of course who knows, they may even suppress
some of the range with software, perhaps they don't want to the competition to know just
how much further ahead they are, or anyone for that matter.
Anyway, its possible Tesla may only need a 70 kWh 4680 battery to get as much out of
the 82 kWh 2170 battery. Whoa! No way, does that sound believable, surely not. Well, if
the new Model S long range is getting about the same range out of a battery 10-20 kWh
less, then surely the new Model Y could too? Remember we are also talking front and rear
die casting and structural battery pack. Along with 4680 batteries.
But the virtuous circle part of the technology only gets exponentially better here. You see
we are at a point now, where if Tesla can find more ways to save weight, then they can
also able to remove some batteries, as fewer are required to get the same specifications
as previously, due to the weight saving. The more Tesla's weight is saved with technology
and advances, it is potentially increased 25% by fewer batteries being required too.
Tesla have already reached ranges that are a sufficient level, with charging networks
to back them up and support long distance traveling. Perhaps not everywhere yet, but
sufficient enough for a lot of consumers. And as more consumers adopt Tesla's as their
car, then the charging networks and service centers will also continue to grow. Making
the product better and better.
Of course as batteries are the largest cost in an EV, if you are having to use fewer batteries,
then that is also a huge cost saving. Well Tesla have their 4680 batteries costing nearly
half as much as presumably the 2170 batteries. But, if on top of that, they required maybe
15-20% fewer batteries too. Then that all goes to net profit.
Put it this way, and ok potential supply chain issues aside, or even inflation, in real terms,
this is the most expensive Tesla's cars will cost to make. As in, it's likely to only get
better from here on in, as they find more ways to cut costs and increase margins. Tesla
are not going to pass this saving on to the consumer, at least not any time soon, there
is simply no need. It looks like they will try and match supply and demand at the clearing
price as much as they can. The supply should be eased somewhat as the new factories come
online and start to ramp up next year. Therefore, any cuts in costs Tesla create,
will simply go to net profit. For example, if Tesla's new motor, was also lower cost
than their previous motor. And eventually they included these new motors in all their
vehicles. Perhaps they save $250 per motor, with this new design. Which is a huge additional
profit to make. But what if the motor also reduced the weight of a dual motor, by about
70 lbs? Well that would mean perhaps the car now needs $100 less batteries now too.
This isn't the same as an internal combustion engine. If you want more range then you just
make a bigger gas tank. But whenever you save weight from an ICE car, you cant simply remove
a fraction of the engine like you can the battery pack as its no longer required for
the same specifications.
This is what all of Tesla's technology is like at this stage. Even any small improvement
has such an impact now. Especially now with the new 4680 batteries which will be much
lighter per kWh. And Tesla think there is still reasonable improvement on these batteries
over the next few years still. Which will make a big difference.
Although the batteries weigh a lot, it's great that all the battery weight is at the bottom
of the car though, it gives the car a lower center of gravity, so it handles better. This
is why some sports cars have carbon fiber roofs. Carbon fiber weighs much less, and
thus the roof is the best place to incorporate that, as to keep the weight lower to the ground.
Of course Tesla has also talked about moment of inertia, which means if there are fewer
batteries required, then it will be the batteries from the outside of the pack that will be
removed, keeping the weight towards the center of the car. This would dramatically improve
handling, and cornering, along with weight distribution. This is why a lot of sports
cars are mid-engined, which usually looks like the engine is in the back. The Porsche
911 are particularly renowned for this. This will also make Tesla's continually safer,
due to the batteries being closer to the center. Meaning in an incident they are further from
any potential impact, and are thus less likelihood of fire.
Due to being so much lighter, Tesla's cars will handle that much better, they will be
able to accelerate quicker, have a faster top speed, more range, faster stopping, better
cornering. This is just physics. A subject Elon knows well. Physics is the law, everything
else is a recommendation, as Elon said. As time goes on, and the technologies improve,
there will be fewer, and lighter batteries required in a Tesla.
Tesla will continue to require less batteries and make lighter cars. You see, simply the
better and better you get the weight, then the better the car performs and handles. Not
to mention how much more range you can get, or less batteries required to get about the
same, and just more profit to Tesla.
When there are charging stations everywhere, and charging speed is faster, then larger
heavier batteries are probably also less necessary for the majority of people.
There is no competition coming any time soon. If Tesla always has the demand, they can just
add any cost savings to their profits rather than reduce the price for the consumers.
But all these improvements now, are just so exponential, I mean the 4680s and all associated
features have amazing weight savings. That from here on in, any small change has a big
impact. It will be very interesting to see how many kWh the Model 2 will require. Although
it will likely be using LFP, which is a bit heavier. But with its short-wheel base I can't
wait to see how it handles.
Meanwhile the competition are having to find ways of adding more batteries and weight to
try and reach Tesla's specifications.
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