Someone went and Moneyballed military history.
Ethan Arsht applied the principles of baseball sabermetrics
to the performances of history's greatest generals' ability
to win battles and he came up with a list
of the 10 best generals of all time.
The math is tricky but the list is definitive.
There are just a few caveats.
Although an imperfect source,
Arsht compiled Wikipedia data from 3,580 battles
and 6,619 generals.
He then compiled lists of key commanders,
total forces, and of course, the outcome.
The general's forces were categorized
and his numerical advantage or disadvantage weighted
to reflect tactical ability.
The real power is ranking the general's WAR score,
or Wins Above Replacement.
The more battles a commander fought and won,
the more opportunities to raise their scores.
But fighting fewer battles didn't necessarily help.
There were some surprises in the model,
like the apparent failures of generals
like Robert E. Lee.
For the more modern generals like Patton,
who didn't make the top 10,
the relatively small number of battles
commanded attributed to their absence.
For more about Arsht's results,
responses to criticism, and his findings,
check out our website in the link below.
Remember, this has nothing to do with overall strategy
and it's all in good fun.
So just take it easy internet trolls.
Okay, let's get started.
Number 10, Alexander the Great.
Alexander was born in 356 BCE
and he would go on to create the one of the largest empires
in the ancient world.
He earned his first victory in battle at the age of 16
and became the king of Macedonia at the age of 20.
Alexander was a great strategist;
in fact, he won every battle that he himself commanded,
but since his life was cut short
and he had only nine battles from which to draw data,
it leaves the model very little to work with.
Still, the conqueror of the known world
is ranked much higher than other leaders
with similar numbers,
including the Japanese Shogun Tokugawa,
German Field Marshal Erwin Rommel,
and Confederate General J.E.B. Stuart.
It should be noted that Alexander's per battle
WAR average is higher than anyone else's on the list.
Number nine, Georgy Zhukov.
Georgy Konstantinovich Zhukov is perhaps the most acclaimed
Soviet commander from World War II.
His victory at the Battle of Kursk,
the largest tank battle in history,
is remembered as the turning point in the war
against the Germans, and his assault against
Berlin in 1945 hastened the end of the war.
Zhukov has only one more battle than Alexander
and his overall score barely squeaks by the Macedonian.
Interestingly enough, his score
is far, far above that of General Douglas MacArthur
or Confederate Generals Jubal Early and John Bell Hood.
That's what overcoming the odds does for your WAR score.
Number eight, Frederick the Great.
Frederick II ruled Prussia, a powerful kingdom
within the Germanic Empire, during the 18th century.
His military prowess expanded Prussian lands
and his political influence brought Prussia
to the front of European affairs.
Ruling for more than 40 years and commanding troops
in some 14 battles across Europe
earned the enlightened Prussian ruler
the number eight spot on this list.
His per battle average was also lower
than Alexander's but on the whole,
he was just a better tactician.
Number seven, Ulysses S. Grant.
Ulysses S. Grant led the Union Army to victory
during the American Civil War and went on to serve
as President of the United States from 1869 to 1877.
Grant's performance commanding Union troops
in 16 battles earned him the seventh spot on this list,
as well as the U.S. presidency.
Although his performance on the battlefield
is clearly much better than those of his contemporaries,
it should be noted that his Civil War arch-rival,
Robert E. Lee, is so far below him on the list
that he actually has a negative score.
Number six, Hannibal Barca.
Hannibal is notoriously considered
one of the greatest military strategists of all time,
and the greatest enemy Rome ever faced.
Born in 247 BCE, he was a general of Ancient Carthage
known for his conquest of Hispania,
the Second Punic War, and the Roman-Seleucid War.
Hannibal, once captured by Scipio Africanus,
is believed to have given his own ranking system
to Scipio once the two started talking.
His personal assessment wasn't far off from the truth.
He listed Alexander the Great and himself as best.
Both of whom are in the top 10, even centuries later.
Number five, Khalid Ibn al-Walid.
Al-Walid was a companion of the Prophet Mohammed,
and one of the Islamic Empire's
most capable military commanders.
His leadership united Arabia under a single leader
for the first time in history.
He's known for commanding the forces
of the Rashidun army under Mohammed and his successors
of the Rashidun Caliphate.
It's rumored that he fought in over 100 conflicts
and skirmishes, but he is best remembered
for 14 significant battles, in which he remained undefeated
against the Byzantine Empire and the Sassanid Persians,
and helped spread Islam
to the greater Middle East.
Compared to others who fought similar numbers of battles,
his score eclipses even Frederick the Great.
Number four, Takeda Shingen.
Being one of the best military minds in feudal Japan
is a really big deal, because almost everyone
seemed to be a military mind and being better
than someone else might mean you get challenged to a duel.
After 18 battles, the Tiger of Kai reigned supreme,
in Japan, anyway.
During the 14th century,
Takeda Shingen was a prominent Daimyo, or feudal lord,
renowned for his military prowess and aggressive
tactics in battle.
His domestic policies, including systems of law,
taxation, and administration,
were later incorporated into the shogunate
that would unite Japan.
Number three: Arthur Wellesley, first Duke of Wellington.
Though he would become Prime Minister,
Wellesley is best known for his military accolades.
It's a pretty big deal to be the guy who delivered
a solid defeat to the man they called Master of Europe.
Napoleon's old nemesis,
the Duke of Wellington commanded famous victories
during the Napoleonic Wars,
including the defeat of Bonaparte at Waterloo.
Like Takeda Shingen, his nearest challenger on this list,
the Duke saw command of 18 battles,
but his WAR score is considerably higher.
Number two, Julius Caesar.
Before he declared himself dictator for life
and found himself infamously
murdered by all his friends,
Julius Caesar expanded the Roman Republic
through conquests across modern Europe.
Caesar didn't have command in as many
battles as Shingen or the Duke of Wellington,
but his WAR score reflects a lot more risk
and shrewdness in his battlefield tactics.
But Caesar also couldn't top
Alexander's per battle WAR average.
Number one, Napoleon Bonaparte.
Yes, you might have guessed by now,
but the number one spot
belongs to l'empereur.
Napoleon is so far ahead of the normal distribution curve
created by the data for these 6,000-plus generals,
it's not even close.
After 43 battles, he has a WAR score of more than 16,
which blows the competition away.
There can be no question, the man responsible for conquering
an enormous expanse of Europe during the 19th century
is the greatest tactical general
of all time, and the math proves it.
So that's our list.
Leave us a comment and let us know
if anyone on this list surprised you.