CAN YOU TELL US HOW DANGEROUS THIS VIRUS STRAIN IS?
WE KNOW THAT IT CAN INVADE VACCINES.
COULD WE BE BACK TO GROUND ZERO? PAUL: I DON'T THINK SO.
AND IT WILL TELL YOU THE REASON WHY.
FIRST OF ALL DOES NOT SEEM TO BE AN INCREASED VIRULENCE,
THERE SEEMS TO BE INCREASED TRANSMISSIBILITY.
BUT MOST OF THE PEOPLE INFECTED WERE YOUNGER PEOPLE IN THE
CASES WERE RELATIVELY MILD. THE VIRUS WAS FIRST DETECTED IN
SOMEONE INFECTED IN THE NINTH OF NOVEMBER.
WE ARE NOW THREE WEEKS OUT FROM THAT, AND WEATHER HAS BEEN A
RISE IN CASES IN SOUTH AFRICA, THERE HAS NOT BEEN A COMPARABLE
RISE IN HOSPITALIZATIONS. YOU MIGHT SAY I AM
OVEROPTIMISTIC, BUT THIS IS SIMILAR TO WHAT YOU'VE SEEN
WITH DELTA PRICE OR WITH MU IN RECENT WEEKS WHERE THEY ARE.
VERY THREATENING IN THE BEGINNING BUT THEY WERE NOT AS
BAD AS THEY APPEARED TO BE. YVONNE:
WHEN IT COMES TO VACCINES, IS THERE A SENSE THAT THE SCIENCE
WE HAVE RIGHT NOW CAN OFFER SOME CROSS PROTECTION?
DR. TAMBYAH: IT IS A BIT COMPLICATED BECAUSE
WE ARE LOOKING AT ANTIBODIES. IT INVOLVES THE IMMUNE RESPONSE.
ON THE SURFACE, THE ANTIBODY DATA IS CONCERNING BECAUSE IT
DOES SUGGEST THAT MANY OF THE ANTIBODIES WHICH ARE
COMMERCIALLY AVAILABLE RIGHT NOW WILL NOT WORK, AND THERE IS
A RISK THAT THE VACCINES MAY NOT WORK.
BUT WE SAW THIS WITH THE BELTA VARIANT.
-- VACCINES ARE EFFECTIVE AGAINST THE BETA VARIANT.
SO I AM PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT THE VACCINES WILL CONTINUE TO
DO THEIR JOB IN PREVENTING SEVERE ILLNESS AND DEATH.
YVONNE: DO YOU THINK THEN, THAT THE
TRAVEL BANS AND BORDER RESTRICTIONS WE HAVE SEEN OVER
THE WEEKEND, ARE THEY JUSTIFIED THIS TIME AROUND ONE MORE OF
THE WORLD IS VACCINATED? DR. TAMBYAH:
I THINK THEY ARE COMPLETELY UNJUSTIFIED.
IN THE FIRST PLACE, WE HAVE ALREADY GOT SPREAD OF
THE DISEASE IN COUNTRIES IN EUROPE WHERE WE IDENTIFIED
CASES IN THE LAST FEW WEEKS.
SO THE VARIANT IS ALREADY IN THERE, SO TRYING TO IMPOSE A
TRAVEL BAN DOWN IS LIKE SHUTTING THE BARN DOOR AFTER
THE HORSE HAS BOLTED. MORE IMPORTANTLY, WHAT THIS
TRAVEL BAN DOES IS SEND A BAD SIGNAL TO COUNTRIES ALL OVER THE
WORLD. THE SOUTH AFRICANS GET A GOOD
JOB IN BEING TRANSPARENT AND IDENTIFYING THE CASES AND
ANNOUNCING IT TO THE WORLD, THEN THEY GET REWARDED WITH A
TRAVEL BAN, WHICH WILL CRIPPLE THE TOURIST SECTOR OF THE
ECONOMY. FROM WHAT I HAVE HEARD FROM
COLLEAGUES AND VIROLOGISTS IN SOUTH AFRICA, THEY ARE ALREADY
FEELING THE PAIN FROM INDIVIDUALS LOSING THEIR
LIVELIHOOD AND BLAMING THE
BARREL OR JUSTS FOR -- BLAMING THE VIROLOGISTS FOR IDENTIFYING
THE VARIANT. I HOPE THE W.H.O.'S ADVICE IS
TAKEN SERIOUSLY IN THIS CASE. YVONNE:
WHAT IS THE RIGHT APPROACH, THEN? WHAT WOULD YOU PRESCRIBE
QUESTION MARK IS EASY TO PANIC. WHAT WOULD BE THE RIGHT
APPROACH? CAN WE LIVE WITH THIS NEW VIRUS
STRAIN AND REEMERGE OUT OF THIS CRISIS AS MOST ARE SEEING RIGHT
NOW? DR. TAMBYAH: YES. THAT IS THE MESSAGE THAT HAS
COME THROUGH OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS, IS WE HAVE TO LEARN TO
LIVE WITH THE VARIOUS WITH ITS DIFFERENT MUTATIONS, IS
DIFFERENT VARIANTS THAT WILL EMERGE.
WE HAVE TO USE A SCIENCE-BASED APPROACH.
LIKE WHAT THE SOUTH AFRICANS DID, WHICH IS TO DO DETAILED
GENETIC FINGERPRINTING SO YOU UNDERSTAND HOW THE VIRUS
SPREADS, FOLLOW BASIC INFECTION PREVENTION PROTOCOLS, GOOD
HYGIENE, MASK USE INAPPROPRIATE SETTINGS, AND TRACK THESE CASES.
WHEN YOU GET A NEW VARIANT EMERGING, YOU CAN DO DETAILED
CONTACT TRACING. WHEN YOU START GETTING HUNDREDS
OF THOUSANDS OF CASES A DAY, IT IS TOO LATE TO DO DETAILED
CONTACT TRACING. THEN AT THAT POINT IN TIME, YOU
WANT TO RAMP UP YOUR VACCINATION, YOU WANT TO
IDENTIFY THOSE WHO ARE IS AND ENSURE THEY GET THE APPROPRIATE
TREATMENT AND TRY TO PREVENT MORTALITY, RATHER THAN TRY TO
PREVENT THE INCIDENCE OF CASES. YVONNE:
MAYBE YOU CAN TALK TO US MORE ABOUT HOW 2022 IS GOING TO LOOK
LIKE. WHAT IS IT GOING TO LOOK LIKE
TO YOU? WHAT IS THE PICTURE GOING TO BE?
WILL WE BE DEALING WITH MORE OF THESE VIRUS STRAINS?
DR. TAMBYAH I HATE TO SAY THIS, BUT 2022 WILL LOOK A LOT LIKE
WHAT THIS YEAR LOOKS LIKE. UNLESS THE WORLD CAN GET OUR
ACT TOGETHER AND ENSURE THAT EVERYBODY GETS A CHANCE TO GET
VACCINATED, EVERYBODY WHO WANTS TO GET THE CHANCE TO BE
VACCINATED. BECAUSE IT IS NO COINCIDENCE
THAT THESE NEW STRAINS ARE EMERGING IN SETTINGS WHERE
VACCINATION RATES ARE VERY LOW. PEOPLE WHO DON'T HAVE ACCESS TO
AFFORDABLE VACCINES ARE NOT GOING TO GET VACCINATED, AND
THE VIRUS WILL GO SMOLDERING THROUGH THESE
POPULATIONS. SO UNLESS THE WORLD RAMPS UP
VACCINATIONS IN LOW AND MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES WHERE
THE VACCINATION RATES ARE DEPRESSINGLY
LOW, WE ARE GOING TO SEE MORE OF THE SAME.
IT IS IN THEIR SELF-INTEREST FOR HIGH INCOME COUNTRIES TO
MAKE SURE THAT LOW AND MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES GET
VACCINATED. BECAUSE THEY DON'T WANT TO GO
BACK TO SQUARE ONE EVERY TWO TO THREE MONTHS WHEN THERE IS A
NEW VARIANT EMERGING FROM SOMEWHERE ELSE.