THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR BEING
HERE, AND ALL OF YOU FOR GETTING
UP WAY TOO EARLY WITH US ON THIS
MONDAY MORNING.
"MORNING JOE" STARTS RIGHT NOW.
>>> MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS IN THE
RUSSIAN INVASION OF UKRAINE.
FRESH ATTACKS IN KYIV OVERNIGHT,
BUT SO FAR THE UKRAINIAN
MILITARY HAS KEPT THE RUSSIAN GO
LEE ATH
LIATH FROM TAKING THE CAPITAL.
THE WAR IS HEADED TOWARD A
STALEMATE WHERE THE FIGHTING
CONTINUES BUT NEITHER SIDE
ADVANCES.
RUIA CLAIMS VISITING RICTORY OVE
KEY PORT CITY OF MARIUPOL AND
ORDERS UKRAINE TO SURRENDER.
THE WORD FROM UKRAINE, NOT A
CHANCE.
THE KREMLIN IS REJECTING
UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT VOLODYMYR
ZELENSKYY'S REQUEST FOR
FACE-TO-FACE MEETINGS WITH
VLADIMIR PUTIN.
ALL OF THIS COMES AS PRESIDENT
BIDEN PREPARES TO TRAVEL TO
BELGIUM TO MEET WITH NATO
ALLIES.
WE JUST LEARNED HE WILL ALSO
VISIT POLAND, WHERE NEARLY 5,000
U.S. TROOPS HAVE BEEN DEPLOYED
AND WHERE 2 MILLION UKRAINIAN
REFUGEES HAVE SOUGHT SOME SORT
OF COMFORT IN THE LIGHT OF THIS
BRUTAL WAR.
GOOD MORNING, AND WELCOME TO
"MORNING JOE."
IT'S MONDAY, MARCH 21st.
WE START WITH THAT MAJOR TURNING
POINT IN THIS BLOODY CONFLICT.
ACCORDING TO AN ASSESSMENT FROM
THE INSTITUTE -- THE STUDY OF
WAR, THE INVASION IS NOW HEADED
TOWARD A BLOODY STALEMATE.
AFTER 25 DAYS OF FIGHTING,
VLADIMIR PUTIN HADSS FAILED TO
CARRY OUT HIS PRIMARY OBJECTIVE,
TO SEIZE UKRAINE'S CAPITAL AND
FORCE REGIME CHANGE.
THE ANALYSIS FROM WAR EXPERTS
CONCLUDES THAT IF THE WAR OF
UKRAINE SETTLES INTO A STALEMATE
CONDITION, RUSSIAN FORCES WILL
CONTINUE TO BOMB AND BOMBARD
UKRAINIAN CITIES, DEVASTATING
THEM, KILLING CIVILIANS, EVEN AS
UKRAINIAN FORCES IMPOSE LOSSES
ON RUSSIAN ATTACKERS, AND
CONDUCT COUNTER ATTACKS OF THEIR
OWN.
THIS IS ALREADY HAPPENING.
ALSO, WITH THE RUSSIAN MILITARY
RUNNING OUT OF MANPOWER, WEAPONS
AND SUPPLIES, ANALYSTS AND
OFFICIALS TELL "THE WASHINGTON
POST" THE NEXT TWO WEEKS WILL
DETERMINE IF RUSSIA CAN CONTINUE
ON WARD.
THE FRONT LINES ARE STAGNANT.
AND WESTERN INTELLIGENCE
ESTIMATES RUSSIA IS SUFFERING UP
TO 1,000 CASUALTIES A DAY.
WHILE THE UKRAINIANS SAY THAT
NUMBER IS EVEN HIGHER.
THEY ARE NOW CALLS FOR THE WEST
TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY AND STEP UP ITS
MILITARY SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE.
HAVING FAILED TO TAKE KYIV,
SENIOR U.S. OFFICIALS TELL THE
"WALL STREET JOURNAL" THEY
BELIEVE THE KREMLIN IS NOW
SHIFTING TO PLAN B, COMPELLING
THE UKRAINIAN GOVERNMENT TO
ACCEPT RUSSIA'S TERRITORIAL
CLAIMS AND TO ACCEPT NEUTRALITY
AS WELL, MEANING DON'T JOIN
NATO.
UKRAINE HAS ALREADY REJECTED
THOSE CONDITIONS.
>> WELL, ON THURSDAY, ON TUESDAY
THEY SUGGESTED IT WAS A
POSSIBILITY.
I THINK ON ALL OF THESE
CONDITIONS, WE'RE GOING TO SEE
MOVEMENT BACK AND FORTH AS THEY
CONTINUE TO TRY TO FIGURE OUT A
WAY TO GET TOGETHER.
>> OFTEN IT LOOKS LIKE THERE'S
NO WAY OUT.
LET'S BRING IN U.S. SPECIAL
CORRESPONDENT FOR BBC, KATTY
KAY, COLUMNIST AND ASSOCIATED
EDITOR FOR THE "WASHINGTON
POST," DAVID IGNATIUS, AND
FORMER U.S. AMBASSADOR TO
UKRAINE, BILL TAYLOR JOINS US.
GOOD TO HAVE YOU ALL.
>> SO DAVID IGNATIUS, THERE'S A
QUOTE FROM THE TIMES YESTERDAY
THAT CAUGHT MY ATTENTION, FROM
BEN HODGES, FORMER COMMANDER OF
U.S. ARMY IN EUROPE, HE SAID
THIS, RUSSIAN GENERALS ARE
RUNNING OUT OF TIME, AMMUNITION,
AND MANPOWER, AND THE CENTRAL
CAVEAT TO MY ASSESSMENT IS THAT
WE, THE WEST, LED BY THE UNITED
STATES MUST ACCELERATE AND
EXPAND THE SUPPORT WE'RE
PROVIDING TO UKRAINE ON THE
SCALE AND WITH A SENSE OF
URGENCY OF THE BERLIN AIR LIFT.
THIS IS WHERE WE ARE AGAIN,
1949.
I MEAN, THE RUSSIANS HAVE TURNED
BACK THE CLOCK, AND THIS
SUGGESTS WE NEED TO DO THE SAME
AND BE EVEN MORE URGENT WITH OUR
SHIPMENTS INTO KYIV AND ACROSS
UKRAINE.
>> THE URGENCY OF SHIPPING
WEAPONS IS AS CLEAR AS CAN BE.
UNFORTUNATELY SO ARE THE LIMITS
ON THE WEAPONS THAT WE CAN
PROVIDE.
THE DEBATE REALLY IS OVER NOW,
ABOUT A NO FLY ZONE, AND PRETTY
MUCH OVER ABOUT PROVIDING MIGS,
ALTHOUGH THERE'S STILL SOME
DISCUSSION.
MY FEAR, JOE, IS THAT AS WE
ADMIRE AND APPLAUD AND JUST
EMOTIONALLY EMBRACE THE STRUGGLE
OF THE UKRAINIAN PEOPLE, WE'RE
GOING TO OVERSTATE THEIR
CAPACITY TO RESIST THIS HUGE
ARMY.
AND I THINK IT'S REALLY
IMPORTANT NOT TO DO THAT, NOT TO
GET CAUGHT UP IN THE EMOTION OF
THEIR RESISTANCE.
WE'RE NOW ENTERING THE MOST
DIFFICULT PERIOD OF THIS WAR.
>> THAT'S A REALLY IMPORTANT
POINT.
>> I NEED TO STOP YOU THERE ON
YOUR FIRST STATEMENT.
WE SEE WHAT'S HAPPENING IN
MARIUPOL, THEY'RE MOVING
FORWARD.
THE UKRAINIANS ARE REFUSING TO
TURN IT OVER, SAUGYING THAT WE'R
GOING TO KEEP FIGHTING.
>> THEY'RE FLATTENING IT THOUGH.
>> LET'S BRAIN EMOTION OUT OF
IT.
I HAVE YET TO HEAR ANY U.S.
COMMANDER, NATO COMMANDER,
RETIRED GENERAL SAYING THAT THE
RUSSIANS HAVE ANY CHANCE OF
TAKING KYIV AND HOLDING IT.
>> SO THEY HAVE A CHANCE OF
TAKING IT.
IT'S JUST AT WHAT COST, WHAT
WOULD BE LEFT.
>> AND THE SECOND PART OF THAT,
AND HOLDING IT.
RIGHT NOW, THEY'RE ACTUALLY
FIGHTING THE BEST WAR THEY CAN
FIGHT WHICH IS OUTSIDE OF THE
CITY.
THE SECOND THEY GO INTO THE CITY
WITH 2 MILLION INHABITANTS,
EVERY MILITARY EXPERT SAYS IT
GETS BLOODIER.
>> OTHERS ON YOUR PANEL WOULD
HAVE A BETTER SENSE THAN I,
ESPECIALLY MASTER TAYLOR WHO'S
BEEN THERE, BUT I FEEL THAT THE
SIZE OF THE RUSSIANS ARE
ESCALATING IN UKRAINE.
THE WEAPONS THEY HAVE TO CALL ON
ARE DEVASTATING.
>> RIGHT.
>> AND WHAT WE KNOW IN GROZNY,
INVOLVES A LEVEL OF DESTRUCTION
THAT IS TERRIBLE TO THINK ABOUT,
THE RESOLVE OF THE PEOPLE OF
KYIV, LIKE THE PEOPLE OF
KHARKIV, LIKE THE PEOPLE OF
MARIUPOL IS JUST EXTRAORDINARY,
AND MARIUPOL, IT WAS A RUSSIAN
DEMAND EARLY THIS MORNING TO
GIVE UP, GIVE UP OR WE'RE COMING
IN.
WE'RE GOING TO FIGHT STREET BY
STREET, AND YOU KNOW WHAT, THE
UKRAINIANS ARE FIGHTING STREET
BY STREET AND THAT WILL HAPPEN
IN KYIV.
>> CAN I ASK YOU, DAVID, I'M
CURIOUS, WE'RE LOOKING AT THESE,
AND YOU'RE RIGHT, PEOPLE ARE
CHEERING ON THE UKRAINIANS.
WE'RE LOOKING AT STUDIES,
REPORTS, MILITARY ASSESSMENTS
AND ONE AFTER ANOTHER SAYS THE
RUSSIANS DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
TROOPS, ESPECIALLY WITH HOW
POORLY THEY HAVE BEEN GOING TO
TAKE KYIV, TO HOLD KYIV, AND TO
TAKE OTHER CITIES.
THIS IS LIKE IRAQ SQUARE.
YOU HAVE STORIES OF WOMEN WHO
ARE COMMANDING 20 PEOPLE GETTING
IN THEIR ELECTRIC VEHICLES,
GOING OUT OF TOWN, CAMPING IN
THE WOODS FOR THREE DAYS, AND
HELPING TAKE OUT A TANK COLUMN,
AND THEY JUMP BACK IN THEIR CARS
AND GO HOME.
THIS IS SOMETHING, I MEAN, THIS
ACTUALLY SEEMS LIKE A FAR MORE
DAUNTING TASK THAN EVEN IRAQ WAS
FOR THE UNITED STATES.
>> I'M NOT DISAGREEING WITH
THAT, JOE, AND WE HAVE SOME JUST
TALES OF HEROISM ALMOST NOW ON
EVERY STREET CORNER.
SO I'M NOT IN ANY WAY DENYING
THAT.
I JUST, THE RUSSIANS HAVE MORE
FORCE TO BRING TO BEAR.
THEY HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO
REORGANIZE.
AND I FEAR THAT THIS NEXT PERIOD
IS GOING TO BE EVEN BLOODIER AND
MORE DIFFICULT.
WHAT I HEAR IS THAT THE RUSSIANS
ARE ESCALATING IN UKRAINE,
ESCALATING AT HOME.
THE LEVEL OF ARRESTS IN RUSSIA
IS EXTRAORDINARY.
THE FEARS THAT THEY'RE GOING TO
ESCALATE IN DOMAINS, ATTACKS
THAT COULD SPREAD TO NATO
COUNTRIES.
>> WHAT THAT SEEMS TO MEAN, IF
THEY CONTINUE AT THIS CLIP, THEY
WILL KILL MORE UKRAINIAN
CITIZENS.
THEY WILL REMAIN IN A MILITARY
STALEMATE AND MORE RUSSIAN
SOLDIERS WILL DIE.
IT SEEMS LIKE A LOSE-LOSE
PROPOSITION FOR ALL SIDES.
NOT THAT PUTIN CARES, BUT AT
SOME POINT, ENOUGH RUSSIAN
MOTHERS MAY.
>> ENOUGH RUSSIAN MOTHERS MAY
BUT I THINK DAVID'S RIGHT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR ESCALATION IS
STILL VERY POWERFUL ON THE
RUSSIAN SIDE.
I HAD A CONVERSATION WITH A
COUPLE OF EUROPEAN DIPLOMATS
THIS WEEKEND.
THERE ARE REAL CONCERNS THAT
THEY USE ONE AND POSSIBLY TWO
TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN THE
COURSE OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF
WEEKS, WITHIN UKRAINE,
SPECIFICALLY TARGETED AT THOSE
MILITARY SUPPLY LINES.
IF THEY CAN STOP THE SUPPLY
LINE --
>> WHAT'S THE IMPACT OF THAT IF
THEY USE NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
DOES NATO STAND ON THE
SIDELINES?
>> JENS STOLTENBERG DID NOT SET
ANY RED LINES.
THE ONLY RED LINE IS AN ATTACK
ON NATO ITSELF.
BUT HE WAS VERY EVASIVE ABOUT
CHEMICALS.
HE WAS NOT ASKED ABOUT TACTICAL
NUCLEAR WEAPONS USED WITHIN
INSIDE UKRAINE, GOD FORBID THAT
WERE TO HAPPEN.
IT'S JUST A DEMONSTRATION OF HOW
RUSSIA CAN STILL ESCALATE, AND
ALL AT THE SAME TIME, YOU'VE GOT
HUGE PRESSURE BEING PUT ON THOSE
NATO COUNTRIES IN TERMS OF
REFUGEES, AND IF THAT'S A TACTIC
AS WELL THAT THE RUSSIANS ARE
USING, YOU GET MILLIONS OF
UKRAINIANS PUTTING PRESSURE IN
PO LANLD
POLAND, PUTTING PRESSURE ON
OTHER NATO COUNTRIES AND HOLD
OUT THE STALEMATE, I AGREE,
EVERYBODY IS CHEERING ON THE
UKRAINIANS, AND THEY HAVE DONE A
PHENOMENAL JOB. IT'S NOT OVER YET.
IT'S NOT OVER YET.
>> THE QUESTION IS HOW DO THE
RUSSIANS WIN IF YOU WANT TO EVEN
USE THAT WORD.
YOU LOOK AT THE NUMBERS, AND YOU
LOOK AT THE 40 MILLION PEOPLE
THEY'RE FIGHTING.
YOU LOOK THE AT RESISTANCE.
I DON'T THINK THERE'S A GENERAL
IN THE UNITED STATES ACTIVE OR
RETIRED THAT WOULD SAY, OH,
YEAH, I CAN GO INTO RUSSIA AND
TAKE KYIV AND TAKE UKRAINE OVER.
NOT AT THIS POINT.
>> I THINK THE CONCERN MIGHT BE
THAT RUSSIA MIGHT HAVE A VERY
EVOLVING DEFINITION OF WINNING
THAT DOESN'T INVOLVE ANY TYPES
OF BOUNDARIES, WHETHER IT BE WAR
CRIMES OR ANYTHING ELSE.
THEY PRACTICALLY ANNOUNCED WAR
CRIMES OVER THE WEEKEND.
AMBASSADOR BILL TAYLOR, WHAT ARE
THE OPTIONS FOR NATO, WHICH
HASN'T COLLECTIVELY DONE
ANYTHING YET.
THERE HAVE BEEN NATIONS THAT
HAVE DONE THINGS ON THEIR OWN,
OFFERED SUPPORT.
WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT ARTICLE 5,
ISN'T THE COLLAPSE OF UKRAINE,
ISN'T THAT A THREAT TO NATO.
DOESN'T THAT COMPLETELY BLOW UP
NATO'S SECURITY.
>> UKRAINE IS VERY IMPORTANT TO
NATO.
UKRAINE IS VERY IMPORTANT TO THE
WEST, AND IT'S VERY IMPORTANT
THAT PUTIN LOSE.
IT'S VERY IMPORTANT OR AT LEAST
HE NOT WIN, THAT UKRAINE
MAINTAIN ITS INDEPENDENCE, ITS
SOVEREIGNTY.
MOST OF ITS TERRITORY, THIS IS
GOING TO BE IMPORTANT FOR A POST
WAR RECOVERY.
IT NEEDS TO HAVE THE PEOPLE AND
THE RESOURCES TO REBUILD.
IT NEEDS TO COME OUT OF THIS
INTACT.
BASICALLY IN TACT.
AND IT IS AN INTEREST FOR NATO
AND NATO COUNTRIES.
IT IT IS ALSO DEMONSTRATING THE
IMPORTANCE OF AND THE ABILITIES
OF THE UKRAINIAN PEOPLE AND
MILITARY.
UKRAINE IS AN ASSET, REALLY FOR
NATO, AND THEY OUGHT TO
RECOGNIZE HOW IMPORTANT THAT IS.
MAYBE THE SUMMIT WILL RECOGNIZE
THAT.
>> WHAT WILL BE THE FACTORS
THEY'LL HAVE TO TAKE INTO
CONSIDERATION AT THIS SUMMIT?
>> SO THEY'LL HAVE TO CONSIDER
THAT IF IN THE WORST CASE F
PRESIDENT PUTIN SOMEHOW DOES
WHAT I DON'T THINK HE WILL DO,
HE CAN'T HOLD UKRAINE, BUT IN
THAT CASE, THEN THAT MOVES
RUSSIAN TROOPS TO THE BORDERS OF
NATO NATIONS, AND WE'RE ALREADY
RESPONDING.
NATO IS ALREADY RESPONDING TO
THAT BY MOVING FORCES INTO
POLAND.
SO THAT CHANGES THE FORCE
POSTURE.
>> DAVID, SO RUSSIA USES
TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS ON
UKRAINE, DO YOU THINK THERE'S A
EUROPEAN COUNTRY IN NATO OR THE
UNITED STATES POLITICIAN THAT IS
GOING TO BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND
THE PRESSURE FROM THE PUBLIC,
NOT ONLY IN AMERICA BUT ALSO IN
EUROPE TO ACTUALLY GO IN AND
MOVE IN INTO UKRAINE.
EXCUSE ME, INTO UKRAINE.
BECAUSE I CAN TELL YOU RIGHT
NOW, YOU LOOK AT THE POLLS,
THEY'VE SWIFTED WILDLY IN FAVOR
OF NO FLY ZONES, IN FAVOR OF THE
UNITED STATES DOING MORE.
KATTY TALKS ABOUT THE VISCERAL
REACTION IN EUROPE, A NUCLEAR
WEAPON SET OFF ON A EUROPEAN
CONTINENT.
I'M SAYING, THAT OR CHEMICAL
WEAPONS WILL NOT BE ACCEPTABLE
TO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE OR TO
EUROPEANS TO JUST SIT BACK AND
GO, OH, WELL, NOW THEY'RE USING
WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION IN
UKRAINE.
WE'LL JUST SIT BACK AND LET THIS
CONTINUE.
>> WELL, WARS ARE NOT MANAGED BY
POLLS, THANK GOODNESS BECAUSE
POLLS GO UP AND DOWN, AND
MILITARY STRATEGY HAS TO BE
CONSISTENT AND CONTINUOUS.
I THINK THAT THE EFFORT HAS BEEN
FROM THE BEGINNING TO SIGNAL TO
THE RUSSIANS THAT WHAT THE
LIMITS OF THIS GAME ARE, ONE
LIMIT IS NOT 1 INCH OF NATO
TERRITORY WILL BE ATTACKED AND
THEY HAVE SAID THAT AGAIN AND
AGAIN, AND THEY MEAN IT.
A SECOND LIMIT, LESS CLEARLY
SPECIFIED IS NOT IN USE OF
NUCLEAR WEAPONS, AND THERE'S
GREAT CONCERN A TACTICAL NUCLEAR
WEAPON MIGHT BE USED IN
DEMONSTRATION BY PUTIN.
>> DOES PRESIDENT BIDEN NEED TO
COMB OUT TODAY, DOES THE HEAD OF
NATO NEED TO COME OUT TODAY
MAKING NO MISTAKE, CHEMICAL
WEAPONS IS A RED LINE THAT
CANNOT BE CROSSED AND IF YOU
CROSS THAT LINE, WE WILL NOT
HESITATE AS BARACK OBAMA DID.
WE WILL COME IN AND WE WILL
DESTROY YOUR ABILITY TO DO THAT
INSIDE OF UKRAINE.
>> I THINK THERE'S A FEELING,
JOE, THAT ANNOUNCING RED LINES
IN ADVANCE IS USUALLY A MISTAKE.
YOU DON'T WANT TO, YOU KNOW, SAY
IN ADVANCE WHAT YOU'RE GOING TO
DO AND RESTRICT YOUR OPTIONS.
IN THIS CASE, WE DO NEED TO
DETER RUSSIA.
ALL OF OUR EFFORTS TO PERSUADE
THEM FROM OCTOBER TO THE DATE
THE INVASION BEGAN FAILED.
>> SO HOW DO WE DO THAT?
>> MORE IMPORTANT ARE THE
MILITARY TO MILITARY
CONVERSATIONS THAT WE HOPE ARE
TAKING PLACE BETWEEN THE
PENTAGON AND THE RUSSIAN
MILITARY BECAUSE ANNOUNCING IT
ON TELEVISION THAT THIS IS A RED
LINE DOESN'T NECESSARILY MAKE A
RED LINE.
>> BUT THEY CAN PICK UP THE
PHONE AND GET A MESSAGE TO
RUSSIA, IF YOU USE TACTICAL
WEAPONS, YOU KNOW --
>> STOLTENBERG WAS ASKED ABOUT
IT THREE OR FOUR DIFFERENT WAYS
YESTERDAY ON CHEMICALS AND HE
WOULD NOT SAY IT'S A RED LINE.
>> AREN'T THEY ALREADY PAST A
RED LINE.
KILLING BABIES, CIVILIANS,
MATERNITY HOSPITALS, THEY'RE
FLATTENING STRATEGIC CITY,
MARIUPOL, THEY'RE TELLING THE PEOPLE THEY HAVE A CERTAIN
PEOPLE THEY HAVE A CERTAIN
NUMBER OF HOURS TO LEAVE BEFORE
THERE WILL BE MILITARY
TRIBUNALS.
>> THEY'RE KIDNAPPING UKRAINIANS
AND TAKING THEM INTO RUSSIA.
>> WHAT RED LINE WOULD LOOK
SERIOUS AT THIS POINT?
WHETHER IT APPLIES TO NATO RULES
OR NOT, AMBASSADOR TAYLOR, RIGHT
NOW EUROPE AND THE WEST LOOKS
LIKE IT CAN'T HELP THESE PEOPLE,
AND I THINK EVEN, YOU KNOW,
PEOPLE ACROSS AMERICA, I THINK
WE HAVE POLLS THAT WILLE'LL SHOW
LATER, BUT THERE IS A GROWING
INTEREST IN HELPING THESE
PEOPLE, IN DOING SOMETHING THAT
WOULD STOP THIS BRUTALITY.
RED LINES AT THIS POINT ARE FAR
FROM BEHIND US.
>> RED LINES ARE BEHIND US.
AND THE BRUTALITY THAT WE SEE,
IT'S GUT WRENCHING.
IT'S BEYOND WORDS.
YOU CAN'T EVEN EXPRESS THE
HORROR THAT WE SEE ON THAT.
AND THERE ARE A LOT OF IDEAS NOW
ON.
MAYBE IT'S SOME SUBSET OF NATO.
MAYBE IT'S NOT NATO AS A WHOLE.