Speaker 1: Despite the fact that more than half of Republicans are ready to say, baby to Donald
Trump, he's still the most popular Republican. And the dynamics of a crowded primary in 2024
would almost certainly benefit him in the same way that he benefited from a crowded field in 2016,
but to a significantly greater degree. And we're going to explain why
a crowded GOP field could help Trump in 24, writes Jill Colvin from the Associated Press.
As Donald Trump considers another White House run, polls show he's the most popular figure
in the Republican Party. But it wasn't always that way. Competing at one point against a dozen rivals
in 2016, Trump won only about a third of the vote in key early states. He even lost in Iowa.
But he prevailed because those in the party who opposed his brand of divisive politics
never coalesced along a single rival. And the same thing could repeat itself as Trump
considers a new bid for the presidency as soon as this summer. With a growing list of candidates
gearing up to run. Even a Trump diminished by two impeachments and mounting legal vulnerabilities
could hold a commanding position in a fractured multi-candidate primary. And the article goes
on to say, interestingly, that anxiety is mounting as there is a growing list of rivals,
potential rivals taking increasingly brazen steps. This includes Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo, Ted Cruz,
Tom Cotton, Rick Scott, Tim Scott, Liz Cheney and Larry Hogan are raising profiles. And, of course,
Ron DeSantis increasingly seen as Trump's heir apparent. So the scenario with the crowded field
is almost certainly good for Trump if the Republican Party. And I'm not giving them
advice. It's an observation. If the Republican Party said we want to put party over person
and defeat Trump at all costs so we can have someone, quote, more normal as our nominee,
they should really coalesce around someone early. I don't know that the dynamics of the
Republican Party allow that. I don't know that the Republican Party is willing or interested in
sort of anointing someone to replace Trump. And so what you could end up with if DeSantis runs,
if whoever if any of these people run is okay, Nikki Haley runs and holds 3% for a while
and ultimately drops out. That's probably worse for DeSantis and better for Trump. Two of that
might go to Trump, and one of her three points goes to DeSantis. Trump consolidated support a
little bit. Then Ted Cruz pulls 4% for a while. It ultimately becomes clear Ted Cruz isn't going
to be the nominee. Again, Trump wins by attrition in a similar way to what happened in the 2016
primary. And there's sort of a couple different layers of this. One is when you zoom out,
Donald Trump incited an insurrection to try to overturn the actual winner of the 2020 election.
He attempted to defraud the electoral vote count with all of these different techniques,
asking for 11,000 votes in Georgia, fake electors, all this different stuff. And he still would
apparently easily win a primary if it were held today. That says as much or more about
the Republican primary voter than it does about Trump. We know plenty about Trump,
but it says a lot about the primary voter that after all, that they'd still be willing to vote
for him. A plurality would over any other candidate. But the other aspect of this is
how committed is the Republican Party to actually removing Trump? Because, listen,
if at this point, 51% of their voters are already interested in someone other than Trump,
not the same someone, but someone other than Trump, the best thing that they could do
is try to consolidate support around someone early. If they decided, based on the polling,
that DeSantis is their best shot, they should be working towards steering away other people from
running and trying to build up. Ron DeSantis At least for now, publicly, they're not doing that.
Although tomorrow on the show I am going to tell you about the fundraising moves of Ron DeSantis
apparently trying to court some of the large Republican mega-donors. My guess would be if
the large mega-donors say to Sanders, we will support you, we would rather you than Trump.
It seems that that could get his campaign off to a fast start. If, on the other hand, they say,
if it's Trump, we've got to support Trump because that's still where most of our voters are
or a plurality of our voters. That may dissuade DeSantis from even running.
But this is very precarious for the Republican Party because so many Republicans now,
particularly because there was no real primary in the Republican side in 2020 who have been saying,
I might want to run. It would be interesting to run. I would like to run. This is the open primary
and it's hard to dissuade people from running in an open primary where there is no incumbent.
At the same time, it's bad for them and it's good for Trump. So I don't know ultimately
what they will do it or how they will manage it, but we will, of course, be watching it.
And right now, DeSantis is the only guy who maybe has a shot. We'll have more on this on
The David Pakman Show Instagram, which you can find at David Pakman show also. Oh, by the way,
if you want to hear. A voicemail so vile and so unhinged that I can't even play it on the podcast.
Check out my personal Instagram David Pakman. I uploaded it this morning
and it is. It's cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs. Let's put it that way.