Gavan: whenever you have a heave,
no one wants to be seen to be the person who launched the heave.
Because if you are the person who will do the dagger
like what's that Shakespeare line?
'He who wields the dagger never wears the crown.'
Okay, so if you are the person who takes out if you knife
the leader, then you're already damaged goods.
You can't be doing that.
If you have a situation where a leader was toppled and nobody knifed them, then
it's kind of fair game for everyone because you don't have ambitious people who
are sort of sitting around going got a lovely over at his job, but it can't be
seen to be pushing them over and a few people who certainly was.
But if the DPP then does the job for them, then they sort of might feel like
they're entitled to be a little bit more aggressive in the push.
Do bare in mind as well, if if the over anchor it does face prosecution, there is no
way in hell he can remain in government but probably can't remain as Fine Gael leader
doubtfully whether he could even remain on the TD if he was still facing charges, even
with the presumption of innocence because of the standards of my office.
Um, the last Fine Gael leadership contest took about two months.
If you want to have a new Fine Gael leader in place by December the 15th to take over
as Taoiseach, you need to have the job vacated by, like the middle of December.
You basically announced the budget and then tell Leo he's got to go.
So, like if it's contested, it takes a long time to fill the vacancy.
So here it's not happening at the moment.
But let's just play fantasy game like, Who are the names?
I mean, maybe, you know, back in the Simon Coveney was the preferred
candidate among the grassroots last time in this hypothetical
leadership election that is not yet happening.
Richard: They still hold a candle to
Simon Coveney. Zara: Simon Coveney is very well loved by the grassroots.
Gavan: Obviously won the last leadership election.
But that's because the votes were weighted in favour of the parliamentary party.
Simon Coveney was by far the more popular candidate among grassroots members,
and even among local authority members, it was genuinely only TDs and senators
that pulled Leo over the line, so Simon Coveney would be there.
You have to bear in mind, too, that if you're electing a new leader
now, you are looking at the next general election when finagle will
already have been in power for three terms in a row.
So if you choose, Simon Coveney is your leader.
Yes, he might be a very valuable and capable leader.
But when it comes to the next general election,
will he be the guy that gets you a forth term?
Or do you even expect to get another term?
Do you say we need a leader for opposition?
And like the six Ministers, they've got in Cabinet right now -
Leo Varadkar has been in Cabinet since day one of this
administration since, like February 2011.
Uh, Leo Varadkar has been there 11 years unbroken in Cabinet.
Simon Coveney is
exactly the same. Paschal Donohoe has been in Cabinet since 2014.
By the next election, he could be there for 11 years, as has Heather Humphreys.
Simon Harris has been in Cabinet since 2016.
He's already been there for six years.
The the new blood is Helen McEntee and then at the junior ministerial ranks the
likes of Josepha Madigan or Brendan Griffin or Hildegard Naughton, they're.
the newer TDs.
So it would actually be a big question as to whether they elect
someone thinking that's going to be the T shirt and our next
our next Taoiseach is looking for another term.
Are they already thinking about the generation of rebuilding?
Because let's talk names.
Yeah, we're talking about they're talking about Helen McEntee.
Simon Harris has been vocal in the past about his desire to be Fine Gael leader.
Simon Harris supported Simon Coveney the last time
ferociously, so if you were to have a 'Battle of the Simons'...
Richard: But there won't be, I don't think it will be because
I actually think it will come to that.
Gavan: They have to have a consensus candidate because they
can't afford to spend two months choosing.
Zara: I feel like you've got a thought there
Richard: People in Fine Gael said they don't see Simon Harris
as much anymore in the media, and this is what they noticed.
This is what people in Fine Gael talk about.
Who's out there, who do you see?
Yeah, well, they say that they see Helen McEntee a lot, Zara: But some people have argued that
he was overexposed prior to that, I mean, you know, it was a different time.
Gavan: Someone, some -
Some would argue that his his overexposure in the last
job was ultimately brought the government down.
Because bare in mind, the last election was called because it
was going to be a motion of no confidence in Simon Harris.
And then, lo and behold, a pandemic comes along
and his reputation is completely healed.
But if it had to be done at short notice because you need to have a new leader
in place by December, you probably couldn't afford to have a contest.
So then would have become a coveted by acclamation
because he's the Deputy Leader and a safe pair of hands?
Richard: It could be, I mean, just it's just those are
the two names that people in Fine Gael talk about.
It's Helen McEntee and Simon Coveney.
Simon Harris hasn't mentioned as much as they
as he would have been maybe a year ago.
Those are the two names and people, people who you know, are deep in Fine Gael.
They think that Helen McEntee, they've identified her from a long way.
It has been somebody that I think will be a long term hope for the for the party.
But the only thing whether or not it actually ends up.
People do this all the time.
Gavan: You have to,
you have to try and choose a leader who was both a capable politician
but also has this sense of personality that people can get behind.
And there was an argument.
Yes, Simon Harris was was overexposed.
In a way, you could almost argue that Helen McEntee, as a personality, is under
exposed because you see a lot about what she's doing in her day job.
But do you know very much about her as a personality beyond her family
history, taking maternity leave and the circumstances of her father's
passing and how she came into the door in the first place?
I don't know much about her in terms of what gets her up, But you know what?
She spent her weekends doing?
What what TV does she like?
You don't get much.
Zara: They start wheeling out a couple of feature pieces.
You know what I mean?
Profiles done,
that's how this works, you know.
Richard: But the thing is that it is being talked about, you know what I mean?
Zara: Talked about amongst people outside of the bubble, like we talk about the bubble we
talk about, you know, journalists and politicians, you know, my civilian friends
that are, you know, they would say, 'Oh, is Helen McEntee gonna be the
next leader of that comes up in conversation at the brunch tables.
Gavan: It's talked about in ways that people don't talk about Fianna Fáil leadership.
Richard: That's actually a really good point.
Gavan: There was a time where it was like, is it gonna be Barry Cowen?
Is it going to be Darragh Cleary?
Is it gonna be Jim O'Callaghan?
That's all just evaporated away now.