TRISH: NICOLAS MADURO IS
FINALIZING A PLAN TO MOVE SOME
OF THE SAY THE-RUN OIL
OPERATIONS TO MOSCOW.
HANS, GOOD TO SEE YOU.
TALK ABOUT HOW CUT OFF MADURO IS
FINANCIALLY.
>> WITH THE NEW SANCTIONS U.S.
PUT IN PLACE, IT'S EXTREMELY
DIFFICULT FOR THE MADURO REGIME
TO GET CASH FLOW.
WHICH IS WHY THEY ARE MOVING
PDVSA TO MOSCOW.
THEY HAVE TO LOOK ANYWHERE THEY
CAN GET IT.
SO THE INDIANS, CHINESE AND
RUSSIANS ARE THEIR ONLY SOURCE
OF REVENUE AT ALL.
SO UNTIL THAT CASH GETS BLOCKED
OFF, THEY MAY SURVIVE, BUT NOT
FOR LONG.
TRISH: HOW DOES IT WORK?
IF THEY ARE SO HEAVILY
SANCTIONED.
NO PLAYER WE ARE FRIEND WITH CAN
DO BUSINESS WITH THEM.
FOR THE OIL TO GET FROM
VENEZUELA TO CUBA OR WHEREVER
ELSE IT'S INTENDED TO GO, I
IMAGINE SOME MONEY HAS TO
EXCHANGE HANDS.
DO THEY NOT SEND THEM OIL
ANYWHERE?
>> THE OPEN THEY SEND TO CUBA IS
BASICALLY BARTERED.
THEY SEND 60,000 BARRELS A DAY
TO CUBA.
CUBA CAN PROCESS 50,000 BARRELS
AND THE REST THEY SELL TO THE
MARKET.
THAT'S IN EXCHANGE FOR HEALTH
SERVICES, SPORTS TRAINING AND
MOSTLY BECAUSE OF THE
INTELLIGENCE CUBA PROVIDE THE
MADURO REGIME.
THE OIL SHIPMENTS THAT GO TO
CHINA AND INDIA.
IT'S EXPENSIVE TO EXPORT IT BUT
THEY CAN GET PAID FOR THAT.
MY SENSE IS THE SOURCES OF
REVENUE WILL BE CRIMPED FURTHER
WITH ADDITIONAL SANCTIONS COMING
UP.
TRISH: YOU HAVE BASICALLY TWO
SETS OF PEOPLE RUNNING -- IF
ANYBODY IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY,
PDVSA.
YOU HAVE THESE PARALLEL BOARDS,
PARALLEL TEAMS RUNNING PDVSA.
WHO IS REALLY RUNNING IT?
>> I THINK IN THIS CASE, KIT GO
IS AN AMERICAN -- CITGO IS AN
AMERICAN COMPANY.
SO THE GUAIDO BOARD IS MOVING
INTO THE FACILITIES.
AND I EXPECT THE NEXT FEW WEEKS
IT WILL BE EFFECTIVELY MANAGED
BY THE PEOPLE PRESIDENT GUAIDO
HAS PUT INTO POWER.
TRISH: WE SAW JUAN GUAIDO
CALLING FOR A NATIONAL STRIKE, A
MILLION-PLUS WORKHORSE WOULD NOT
BE GOING TO WORK, BUT WOULD BE
PROTESTING THE MADURO REGIME.
COULD THAT BE A TIPPING POINT?
>> ABSOLUTELY.
WHEN YOU THRIFT PHILIPPINES
CALLING FOR A NATIONAL DAY OF
PRAYER STOPPED THE COUNTRY IN
ITS TRACK.
IF GUAIDO CAN GET THE UNIONS TO
GO ON STRIKE.
THE FEW PDVSA WORKERS WHO ARE
ACTUALLY PRODUCTIVE DON'T SHOW
UP, THAT WILL HAVE TO BE THE
BEGINNING OF THE END FOR THE
MADURO REGIME.
THEY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO OPERATE
IF THEY HAVE NO CASH FLOW.
TRISH: HOW LONG CAN THEY LOST IN
THIS INTERIM SPACE WHERE THEY
ARE TURNING TO THE LIKES OF
RUSSIA AND CHINA.
I IMAGINE IN DUE TIME LESS SO
BECAUSE OF THE SANCTIONS WE ARE
PUTTING IN PLACE THAT WILL MAKE
IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR SOME OF
THIS MONEY TO TRANSFER TO SOME
OF THOSE BANK ACCOUNTS.
BUT HOW LONG DO THEY HAVE?
>> WHO KNOWS.
THEY LASTS LONGER THAN PEOPLE
THOUGHT IN WERE EXPECTATIONS BY
MUCH OF THE WORLD WHEN JUAN
GUAIDO CAME OUT THAT THE -- THE
MADURO REGIME WOULD CRUMBLE
QUICKLY.
BUT YOU ARE DEALING WITH PEOPLE
IN THE REGIME WHO ARE RELATIVELY
WELL PRACTICED AT DOING THIS
KIND OF THING.
WE HAVE TO EXPECT THEY HAVE MORE
STAYING POWER THAN WE WOULD
THINK GIVEN THEIR FINANCIAL
RESOURCES.
ALONG THOSE LINES, IF THE PLAN
WOULD BE THAT MADURO DECIDES
EVEN IF I HAVE FEW RESOURCES AND
REVENUES I WILL STARVE THE
PEOPLE TO KEEP GENERALS IN
POWER.
WE'LL HAVE TO COME UP WITH A