The uprisings that began on March 15, 2011 in
Syria are still in their permanence today.
The Arab Spring has claimed millions of lives and the number continues to rise.
The protestors want President Bashar-al-Assad, whose family has been
holding the presidency since 1971 to step down from the position.
The conflict also seems to be between Shia and Sunni where the Ba’ath
government happens to be Shia while those that protest are Sunni.
Considering the never-seem-to-end war what would be the future of Syria?
To begin with the original cause of the conflict
which is because of the Assad regime and the
opposition, both the sides are dogged and from the
beginning have stuck to a no negotiation situation.
The goal of either side is total obliteration of their enemy
thus leaving no potentials for a political transition.
Neither of them has accepted their opposition
to be appropriate people with suitable demands.
This has resulted in critical outcomes of the
conflict mainly from the perspective of the
ruling regime that has made a military solution the only suitable thing to resort to.
Since there isn’t any convincing potential for
a political solution to take place, it has
simply overblown the conflict and left the
Syrian population to suffer the wrath of war.
Downsizing an impracticable conflict
If a solution cannot be reached then downsizing and containing
the conflict would be a possible way out of the current chaos.
Using Russia’s way which is to downsize the conflict is not ethical
and is a process which involves using a strategic and lithe tactic
distinctive of powers that do not have the means
to project hegemonic supremacy on the opponent.
The other way is ethical that aims to enforce inclusive resolutions
on local skirmish centered on Western ideals and benefits –
and exploits the military and pecuniary hegemonic position
which NATO and the United States have over the world.
The hegemonic position that the US once held in the Middle East is now fading away
and this has given Russia an opportunity to make a comeback in the showground.
After Russia’s direct military intervention in Syria in 2015, she has an
upper hand in the political efforts to bring an end to this predicament.
Russia tested its conflict management on Syria and
the lack of strategic vision fuelled this conflict.
Arrangement with Turkey
The ruling regime of Syria needs to strike a deal,
either temporary or permanent with the regional actors.
Ankara is focused in bringing down the Kurdish
control over Syria more than taking down Assad.
This is one of the reasons why Turkey launched an offensive recently in Syria.
They had done the same thing back in 2017 and 2018
which led to the occupation of Aleppo and Afrin.
Moscow also made a temporary deal with Ankara that it could keep the Idlib
region and instead they would get rid of jihadi groups active in the area.
However, Turkey doesn’t seem to let go off the
lands as it continues to exercise powers over it.
For example, Turkish universities are opening their branches in Idlib.
Also, Turkish businessmen have been invited by Ankara to invest in the region.
However, it is clear that the Syrians too agreed
to let Ankara make domestic decisions for them.
This is probably because they wanted to lead a safe life in their
own country that was occupied by forces of a different nation.
The situation is quite similar to 1975 situation in Northern Cyprus.
It is also clear that Ankara will now withdraw from Syria only when
a political solution takes place between the two fighting parties.
Ankara claims that Turkey has no interest in
annexing these regions but they want to safeguard
the interests of the Syrians till a peace
treaty is signed between the fighting parties.
A small and a reliable society
Most powerful nations except UAE have denied extending support to rebuild Syria.
Atleast till the time a resolution is reached.
The cost of which is currently estimated upto $400 billion.
The countries that would probably donate are
tight-lipped because of the European and
United States sanctions on Syria and none of the countries
can be seen lifting them in the near future.
However, Russia has debated with the Western leaders that if Syria is
reconstructed the refugees in Europe would go back to their own country.
Russia has also asked the ruling Syrian regime to put in place
policies that will see that the refugees return back home.
However, the changes hardly seem to have been brought into effect.
After several requests from various international organizations
has the regime decided to pardon the military deserters.
Nevertheless, the pardon only spares the
deserter from being arrested on their return.
They would still have to join the army, which means most
families would have to forgo their only breadwinner.
Despite several procedures in place for the refugees
to return home the regime is scanning the people
in such a complicated way that just a handful are
able to get through the security procedures.
If by reconstructing Syria means that refugees return home then why
deny the requests of those that are willing to come back to Syria.
Observers say that as per the actions of the Syrian regime, their
thought of post-war reconstruction of Syria is totally different.
This reconstruction in terms of the Assad regime isn’t one that is extensive.
It is just meant for a small population that are loyal to the regime.
Although most opposition and rebels are Sunni, there is a
noticeable percentage of Sunni that were loyal to the regime.
It is this group that will be welcomed by Damascus and be rewarded
by the regime along with other groups that stood by the regime.
What is Syria’s Future?
For some time now, observers and experts have been predicting
that the Syrian conflict was almost at its culmination
and the aftermath would have been a colossal and
thorny process of reconstruction of Syrian lands.
Nevertheless, the conflict is constant, in fact
it is transmuting in both size and resources.
While what the article expresses are just concepts, if at all the steps are taken,
the original transformation of Syria in the future is quite difficult to define.