If I asked you to tell me the name of an emerging power, I am almost certain that in most cases
your first answer would be: the People's Republic of China.
Now, depending on how we formulate the question, the question has nuances .... Power to do
what exactly? If we are talking about industrial and exporting power, there is no doubt;
Demographic power? Obviously; Economic power? Not inconsiderable.
But... What about military power?
It is this last question that will be the focus of our attention today. How is the military
evolution of the Asian giant going? Can we already speak of the budding armed globalization
of China? How does it rank in relation to the United States?
Take a look at this graph as an example. The US baseline military budget was $778 billion
in 2020, while China's spending barely exceeded $250 billion. In other words, Uncle Sam more
than triples the military spending effort of China these days.
Of course, it's hardly surprising either, the US military budget is so large that it
exceeds those of China, India, Russia, the United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia, Germany, France,
Japan, South Korea, Italy and Australia... combined! That's the military budget of an
entire huge global force.
So, with the numbers in hand and taking into account the huge difference that still separates
them, it seems unlikely that China would end up catching up with the United States in terms
of military budget for at least the next two decades.
Now then... Hold on a minute, does it really need to be able to rival the American giant?
Well... Let’s take a look.
(INTRO)
During the last 30 years China has changed a lot, and the thing is that its understanding
of the army, national defense and particularly foreign policy have also undergone a huge
revolution. A revolution that can be divided into three very different phases:
The first phase corresponded to Mao Zedong's strategy of defense through large-scale protracted
warfare. Its essential basis was to have a huge, gigantic army, even if it was rudimentary
and ill-equipped. If necessary, this plan even envisaged mobilizing the citizens themselves
when necessary, even if they had no specific training or equipment.
Then the second phase was known as the "24-character strategy". It was promoted by Deng Xiaoping
and involved maintaining a low external and military profile in order to promote economic
development and not be seen by the rest of the world as a threat.
This strategy remained intact during Jiang Zemin's presidency, although it began to change
during the Hu Jintao era when the great military modernization began.
Finally, the third phase corresponds to the idea of the return of the Middle Kingdom.
A strategy promoted by Xi Jinping through the so-called national rejuvenation, and which
implies placing China once again as the backbone of political life in Asia. To this end, the
Chinese dictator has expressly ordered the People's Liberation Army to become a first-grade
military force by 2049. And, take note, because Xi Jinping's idea
is not only to have a first-rate army to defend China, but also to use it to expand its area
of political influence.
And don’t think for a moment that all this is mere hot air and ramblings. The speeches
and above all the actions of the Chinese leader leave no room for doubt.
("As we put conscious effort into learning from history to create a bright future, we
must accelerate the modernization of national defense and the armed forces. [...] In heroic
and tenacious struggle, the CCP and the Chinese people solemnly declare to the world that
the Chinese nation welcomes the advent of a great leap – from rising to modest prosperity
and nascent strength [...] The Chinese nation has entered an irreversible historical process."
– Xi Jinping, President of P.R.China)
Quite a statement of intent...
But how did it come to this point? And the million-dollar question: did China's opening-up
and development policies have the clear and predetermined objective of making the country
once again the dominant power on the Asian continent? Or is it something that is happening
as a result of the evolution of events themselves?
Whatever the case, the fact is that it was President Hu Jintao, Xi Jinping's predecessor
who ruled China between 2003 and 2013, who began to break with Deng Xiaoping's non-interventionist
vision. Check it out.
("We should attach great importance to maritime, space and cyberspace security. We should make
active planning for the use of military forces in peacetime, expand and intensify military
preparedness, and enhance the capability to accomplish a wide range of military tasks,
the most important of which is to win local war in an information age". – Hu Jintao,
former President of the P.R.China)
Yes, that’s right. Contrary to what many think, it was Hu and not Xi who started the
Chinese military escalation. Of course, the current leader has taken things much further.
We only have to think of Hong Kong or the constant provocations against Taiwan.
You could almost say that the difference between Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping is the difference
between wanting it and believing it: Hu wanted it, and Xi believes it is within reach.
The fact is that Hu Jintao launched a strong and rapid modernization of the People's Liberation
Army. For example, during his presidency the military budget quadrupled in absolute terms,
the barrier of $150 billion a year in defence spending was surpassed for the first time,
and in his last three years in office, Jintao increased the military budget at a rate of
between 13 and 18 per cent year-on-year.
Thanks to this, in the 'Jintao era' China began operating its first aircraft carrier,
launched the first two versions of stealth bombers and developed a whole new range of
ballistic missiles.
One of them, by the way, is intercontinental in nature: with a range of up to 7,456 miles
or 14,000 kilometres, the Dong Feng 41 is capable of reaching most of the planet.
During Hu Jintao’s final years, the foundations were laid for Xi Jinping to begin to impose
a more active military superiority in Asia, especially in Taiwan and the South China Sea:
in other words, the Chinese no longer just have the weapons, they now also use them to
show their neighbours who has the power. In other words, what Xi Jinping did was to
inherit an arms race that had already begun and which he extended, but with a more bombastic
goal: to rebuild China's grandeur, especially from the outside.
Of course, in order to achieve this goal, Xi not only needs a more modern military,
he needs above all to be at least on par with the United States in Asia.
And the question is... How much of this ambitious goal has been achieved?
Well, let's take a look.
(THE RETURN OF THE CENTRAL EMPIRE?)
Believe it or not, yes, there are already aspects in which the Chinese army of 2021
has surpassed even the United States army itself, the most powerful army in the history
of mankind.
Concretely we can talk about three areas.
Firstly, China has a greater shipbuilding capacity, which has made the Chinese navy
the largest in the world. Technologically and in terms of tonnage it is still far behind
the United States, but its evolution and increasing capacity make it a difficult enemy to beat
in a regional conflict.
Second are ground-based ballistic and cruise missiles. The Chinese military already has
more than 1,250 ballistic missiles ready for use in a regional conflict.
And finally, China has the best air defense system in the world. Thanks to the Russian
S-300 and S-400 systems along with other local systems, China's skies are perhaps the most
fortified in the world.
Of course, at the moment, and this is very, very important, we are talking about regional
capabilities. I mean, many times in the media we come across news and reports that describe
China in terms of direct competition with the United States in the military field.
But that is not strictly true.
Chinese leaders are aware that the current gaps remain enormous. For example, while China
has only two active aircraft carriers and a third in the process of being completed
by 2023, the United States has 20 aircraft carriers in service.
This is precisely why China's immediate goal is not to become a world superpower but above
all a regional superpower.
Put another way, what Xi Jinping's government seeks is to dominate the new economic heart
of the world.
And do you know what? In this respect things are indeed much more equal and China could
very soon surpass the capabilities of the United States. And very importantly, in order
to achieve its goal, it needs much fewer resources than the American power.
Think about it for a moment. While the United States has a huge ocean lying between it and
China, and therefore needs, for example, a large fleet of aircraft carriers, deployment
teams and military bases all over the world, the situation of the Asian giant is completely
different.
The Chinese government only needs to have modern armed forces capable of dealing with
what the United States has deployed at its bases in the Asia-Pacific.
In this region, the US power has deployed some 325,000 soldiers, 180 ships – which
represents around 60 percent of the entire US navy – and some 1,500 aircraft.
Well, in order to achieve its goal, China needs only to surpass US capabilities in the
region. And that is exactly what they are pursuing: limiting themselves to their immediate
neighborhood.
In the rest of the world, on the other hand, China follows a strategy of influence completely
removed from the military sphere: they are dedicated to investing, buying companies,
giving loans to developing countries and building infrastructure. A strategy that could perhaps
bear much fruit in the coming decades, but which currently has no military ambitions
whatsoever. Of course, there is no need for such a military
focus. The world has changed and today controlling Asia-Pacific is enough to determine all global
politics.
And that, that is precisely what explains why, when it comes down to it, the difference
in military budgets between the United States and China may not be so important.
In addition, the Chinese have another advantage: the ethereal boundary between the civilian
economy and the military field.
You see, since Xi came to power, military requirements were incorporated into civilian
infrastructure, and civilian construction was used for military purposes.
Civilian logistics and service capabilities have also been harnessed to strengthen the
capacity of the armed forces, while deepening and expanding the national defense mobilization
system that aims to have all national resources available for use in China's military buildup
and, eventually, in a war.
Everything we are telling you has a name and a fancy title: The Military-Civil Fusion Development
Strategy, also known as MCF for its acronym in English.
To put this in perspective, China's defense industrial base hasn't been so fused with
civilian and industrial technology since at least the time of Mao Zedong.
So what does all this mean? Basically, the Chinese government wants to apply all the
technological and operational evolution of Chinese companies to the military field.
In other words, the Chinese government wants to turn the country into a fortress and an
unbeatable force in the Asia-Pacific region. To achieve this, Xi Jinping is ready to use
all necessary resources. Including the resources of private Chinese companies.
And that, that also means that in some ways the military budget may not be reflecting
the full effort that China is really putting into the military.
Okay, so do you want a concrete example? Well, there we have the so-called Chinese String
of Pearls, a mega-project that consists of the development of bases, ports and naval
structures under the control of Chinese companies from the East China Sea to the Mediterranean
Sea. The point is that, in theory, the network
has a civilian focus, but let's not fool ourselves, it is very likely that many of its hubs also
have a potential military use. Of course, military analysts take this aspect for granted.
That is to say, that the race between the United States and China, the real race, the
race that matters, may be much more closely fought than we might at first think.
Yes, let's recap, the economic, technological and military superiority of the United States
over China is still gigantic, but in spite of this, it is no longer clear that the American
power could easily overcome China in Asia-Pacific, the new economic and industrial heart of the
world.
This is the armed globalization that Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party dream of.
Controlling the crown jewel in order to influence the whole world.
More importantly, it is in this strategy where Xi Jinping seems to be getting his way and
that is exactly where the new priority of the United States of America lies.
But at this point, it's your turn: How do you think the United States and Western countries
in general can contain China's growing dominance in the world's most important region?
Leave us your answers below. And now if you found this video interesting don't forget
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All the best and see you next time.