the major studies suggest that the rate
at which the coronavirus is spreading in
england
may be slowing down that's after the
last few weeks of rapid growth
our medical editor fergus walsh has been
taking a look at the numbers
this is a huge enterprise every month
150 000 people from every corner in
england
are chosen at random to receive a home
coronavirus swap kit
it enables researchers to get an
accurate picture of the amount of
infection in the community
including among those with no symptoms
the last samples were collected this
weekend and
interim results show the virus has been
spreading fast
the survey estimates that one in every
200 people in england
is currently infected with coronavirus
that's four times the level
of just a month ago prevalence is
highest
among the 18 to 24 year olds among whom
one in a hundred
is thought to be infected but it's
rising across all ages
with a sevenfold increase among the over
65s
the group most at risk from the virus
since a low point in early august cases
of kovid 19
have been rising throughout england and
going up
fastest in the north west north east
but those analyzing the data have found
something
less gloomy the speed of growth seems to
be slowing down
you can think about an epidemic curve as
being a hill and we've been
growing up a really steep section of the
hill a little bit of good news in the
results we've found today is that maybe
it's not quite as steep but that's
really not enough
we need to be going down the hill and we
really need to get to the bottom of the
hill like we were in the summer
as for r the virus reproduction number
that's still above one which means the
epidemic is growing
this budget test but the study team
think it's not as high as it was
meaning the rise in cases is more
gradual
the study published today shows us hope
that together we
can crack this and the more people
follow the rules and reduce their social
contact the quicker
we can get liverpool and the north east
back on their feet
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the challenge will be to motivate people
to socially distance
throughout the winter the season when
respiratory viruses spread more easily
and to do it while keeping schools open
and the economy afloat
fergus walsh bbc news i'm joined now by
our health editor pims so
millions of people will be under some
sort of local lockdown by the weekend
there are plans afoot to make it simpler
the sort of almost a traffic light
system so we understand it better yes
sophie plans have been circulating for
england in whitehall for a couple of
weeks now
we understand they're complete they
could be rolled out in the next couple
of weeks
they're not finally signed off the idea
is to end this system where you can have
confusion with one local council with
one set of restrictions
and another not far away with something
completely different
so the thought is you go to a regional
system for england and then take a
tiered approach
based on risk so the bottom tier
tier one as it would be called uh would
be based on
national restrictions as they are now
like the rule of 6 with nothing extra on
top of that
if it's higher risk not based on the
number of infections but the rate at
which they are
accelerating tier 2 you'd have a ban on
mixing households in indoor venues homes
and pubs sort of thing we've seen in the
north east and announced for liverpool
and the highest risk would be tier three
now
if a region is in that tier there'd be a
widespread lockdown
it would see everything but schools and
essential shops
basically closed it doesn't appear at
the moment though there's a region which
would fall into that category and it's
all about targeting
localized outbreaks isn't it yes chris
whittie the uk government's chief
medical advisor said yesterday was very
different now from what it was in march
these are localized particularly in the
northeast and the northwest of england
that's why you'd have this approach with
different types of restrictions
in different regions it hasn't been
completely finalized
and one thing certain new national
restrictions haven't been ruled out sure
thank you