This page lists public and mock opinion polls that have been conducted in relation to the
Scottish independence referendum, 2014.
Opinion polls conducted by British Polling Council members
Overview Professor John Curtice stated in January 2012
that polling showed support for independence at between 32% and 38% of the Scottish population,
a slight decline from 2007, when the Scottish National Party first formed the Scottish Government.
To date there has been no poll evidence of majority support for independence, although
the share "vehemently opposed to independence" has declined.
Support for independence increased after December 2013, although there is disagreement between
the pollsters as to the state of public opinion.
Professor Curtice has observed that ICM, Panelbase and Survation show higher yes support and
TNS BMRB, YouGov and Ipsos Mori show less support for independence.
Peter Kellner, the president of YouGov, noted in July 2014 that the average results for
YouGov and TNS BMRB showed 41% support for independence, whereas ICM, Panelbase and Survation
showed 45 or 46% support.
Kellner said that he believed the latter pollsters were overstating support for independence
due to some SNP supporters being "passing nationalists" who had supported other parties
in other elections.
Patrick Briône, director of research for Survation, said in response that adjusting
for these SNP ex-Labour voters would require too much upweighting of these voters in their
sample.
Polls in March and April showed opposition to independence at an average of 55%, compared
to 61% in the period before Christmas 2013.
There has been little movement in the following few months, with the average showing 43% yes
and 57% no in July 2014.
A poll by Survation in April 2014 suggested that a high turnout in the referendum is likely.
75% of respondents that they were certain to vote in the referendum, compared to 63%
for the next United Kingdom general election.
The 2013 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey found that yes voters were slightly more likely
to turn out than no voters.
Results Only polling companies that are members of
the British Polling Council, and therefore fully disclose their findings and methodology,
are shown in this section.
Three methods of conducting polls have been used by the polling companies.
YouGov, ICM, Survation and Panelbase conduct polls online; Ipsos Mori conduct their polls
by telephone and TNS BMRB use face to face interviews.
There are variations in the questions used by each company, with TNS BMRB, ICM and Panelbase
asking respondents how they intend to vote on 18 September 2014, while YouGov, Survation
and Ipsos Mori ask their respondents how they would vote if the referendum was held immediately.
2014 2013
2012 2011
Other public polling Two option polling by other organisations
Some opinion polls have been conducted by organisations that are not members of the
British Polling Council and therefore not obliged to fully disclose their findings and
methodology.
† The question should Scotland be an independent country?
was the 26th asked question out of a total of 26.
Regional polling ComRes have conducted polls for ITV Border,
surveying people in the council areas of Scottish Borders and Dumfries and Galloway on how they
would vote in an immediate referendum.
Three option polling Before the Edinburgh Agreement clarified that
the referendum would be a straight yes or no question on the issue of independence,
some three option opinion polls were conducted.
The third option in these polls was some form of increased devolution.
Demographic polling Polling has indicated higher support for independence
among male voters, voters under the age of 55 and voters from economically deprived areas,
compared to higher support for the Union among female voters, voters over the age of 55 and
voters living in affluent areas.
In June 2013, a poll of over 1,000 14–17 year olds conducted by the University of Edinburgh
found that 21% supported independence, 60% supported the Union, and 19% were undecided.
Only 17% of the teenagers' households said they would vote yes in the referendum, however,
which led the Newsnet Scotland website to question the accuracy of the opinion poll.
A similar poll by the University of Edinburgh in June 2014 found that support for independence
was 29%, opposition 52% and 19% were undecided.
Polling on individual topics A survey by Ipsos Mori for STV News in June
2014 found that 51% of voters thought that Yes Scotland had been the more effective campaign,
compared to 23% who thought that Better Together had performed better.
Opinion polling has shown a majority in favour of giving control of welfare policy to the
Scottish Parliament.
Early in 2013, an opinion poll commissioned by the Press and Journal found only 8% of
people in Shetland and Orkney supported the islands themselves becoming independent countries
from Scotland, with 82% against.
Polling on hypothetical situations Opinion polls have also asked for attitudes
in various hypothetical situations, such as whether voters believe the Conservatives or
Labour are likely to win the next United Kingdom general election, which is due to be held
in May 2015.
An ICM poll in April 2014 found that the no lead would be 8 points if voters thought Labour
would win, while the no lead would be 1 point if they thought the Conservatives would win.
Other hypothetical scenarios include if voters thought if the UK was likely to leave the
European Union, and if people believed independence would make them £500 better or worse off
per year.
In August 2013, a Panelbase poll commissioned by pro-independence blog Wings Over Scotland
asked voters various questions, such as whether they would vote to join the Union in the hypothetical
scenario that Scotland was already an independent country.
18% of voters said they would join the Union, whereas 55% of voters said they would choose
for Scotland to remain independent.
Private polling In June 2013, private research conducted on
behalf of Yes Scotland reportedly showed "evidence of growing support for independence" among
women and young people, based on "a sample several times the size of a conventional poll"
and "a well-designed series of questions building on a rolling monthly basis going back to last
January".
Better Together demanded that a full report of the research should be published, but Yes
Scotland refused to publish it on the basis that private research is not covered by British
Polling Council regulations.
The SNP researched voting intentions for the referendum while canvassing in Aberdeen Donside
for the 2013 by-election; their survey showed 34% of people intending to vote for independence,
29% of people intending to vote for the Union and 37% undecided.
The SNP also researched voting intentions for the referendum before the Cowdenbeath
by-election, 2014.
A poll by the Scottish Tourism Alliance of members attending its annual conference in
March 2014 found 60% would vote no and 32% would vote yes.
The Communication Workers Union conducted two polls in April 2014, showing that 60%
of its Scottish members would vote 'no', with 26.3% saying 'yes'.
In January 2014, the UK Government spent £46,500 on private opinion polling to be conducted
by Ipsos MORI.
By July 2014, the UK Government had spent £299,100 on opinion polls regarding Scottish
independence during 2014.
School, college and university surveys Schools, colleges and universities across
Scotland have conducted polls and mock referendums to gauge the opinion of pupils and students.
In September 2013, a survey of over 11,000 Aberdeenshire schoolchildren eligible to vote
in the referendum returned 75.5% against independence, with 19 out of 20 schools involved voting
'no'.
In June 2014, a survey of 964 Moray senior pupils eligible to vote in the referendum
voted against independence by 71%, with 7 out of 8 schools involved voting 'no'.
Polling in the rest of the United Kingdom Opinion polls have also been conducted in
the rest of the United Kingdom in relation to the Scottish independence referendum.
A February 2012 opinion poll in Wales showed a rise in support for stronger powers for
its National Assembly if Scotland should choose to be independent.
A poll on the same subject in June 2014 found that 61% of Welsh voters thought Scottish
independence should make no difference to the constitutional position of Wales, while
17% favoured greater devolved powers and 14% supported independence for Wales.
Professor Roger Scully of Cardiff University said it was possible that this poll showed
that Welsh voters placed greater importance on the union between England and Wales, rather
than the unity of the whole United Kingdom.
A poll of Welsh voters in April 2014 found 62% were opposed to Scottish independence,
with 16% in favour.
YouGov have conducted some polls in the rest of the United Kingdom asking whether an independent
Scotland should be allowed to form a currency union with them.
In November 2013, 43% opposed a currency union and 38% supported it.
In February 2014, after George Osborne said that a currency union would not be allowed,
opposition to a currency union increased to 58%.
A further poll in April 2014 found that 53% of respondents were opposed to a currency
union, with 26% in favour.
An opinion poll commissioned by the SNP in December 2013 found that 71% of respondents
in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland agreed that "if independence does happen [...] Scotland
and the rest of the UK should continue using the pound in an agreed sterling area".
The annual British Social Attitudes Survey found that, in the summer of 2013, a total
of 69% of people in England and Wales thought that an independent Scotland should either
definitely or probably be allowed to continue to use sterling.
Professor John Curtice said that this suggested the recent opinion polls showing opposition
to a currency union were the result of UK politicians saying it was a bad idea and that
their opposition was not due to the public being opposed in principle.
The British Social Attitudes Survey conducted in 2013 found that a majority in England and
Wales thought that the Trident nuclear missiles should either definitely or probably be moved
from an independent Scotland, which was greater than the number in Scotland who thought that
the UK should be required to move the missiles.
Professor Curtice said this was probably because the English and Welsh public would prefer
to have the missiles in their territory, rather than holding them in another state.
Majorities in the survey also favoured allowing an independent Scotland to have the same monarch
as England and to continue using the BBC.
Polls in both Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom by Panelbase have shown majority
support for a televised debate between British Prime Minister David Cameron and Scottish
First Minister Alex Salmond.
A poll of FTSE 100 company chairmen found that 65% believed Scottish independence would
be bad for business, while 24% believed it would be good.
References
External links What Scotland Thinks