In November 2019, the people of Bougainville, currently a part of Papua New Guinea, will
hold a referendum on independence.
Depending on the result – this could mean the world gets a brand new sovereign country.
But there’s much more to this story, so stick around to find out.
Before we dive in to the referendum, let’s orient ourselves with region.
This is the island of New Guinea – it’s a bit of a cross-over point between Asia and
Oceania.
This is the country of Papua New Guinea, which is mostly on the island of New Guinea, but
also includes lots of smaller islands.
These are the Solomon Islands, and this is the country of the Solomon Islands, which
doesn’t include all of the Solomon Islands – with me so far?
This is Bougainville Island, which, along with some smaller islands makes up the Autonomous
Region of Bougainville, which is an autonomous region currently part of the country of Papua
New Guinea but situated in the Solomon Island Archipelago.
Later this year, Bougainville will hold a referendum on independence from the rest of
Papua New Guinea.
Bougainville is more geographically and culturally similar to the rest of the Solomon islands,
so how did it end-up as part of Papua New Guinea in the first place?
During European colonisation and decolonisation in the last century, existing cultural borders
were largely ignored by the colonising countries.
This was reinforced when Papua New Guinea, inclusive of Bougainville, gained independence
as one sovereign country from Australia in 1975.
This has been one of the driving factors for the Bougainvillean secession movement, and
subsequent conflicts.
And like many other conflicts around the world, the hunt for resources also features heavily
in this one.
Bougainville is rich in copper, and in the 1960s, the largest open-cut mine on earth
was located on Bougainville Island.
Open-cut mining can hace devastating impacts on the natural environment and on local people,
which led to protests and was a catalyst for armed conflict.
Over the next decades, the conflict had become not just about the mine itself, but also about
profits leaving the island, and about Bougainville’s attempted secession from Papua New Guinea.
This was a particularly complex conflict as Bougainville, along with the rest of Papua
New Guinea is made up of many different people groups, which creates lots of different lines
along which political views can fracture.
Violence continued until the late 90s and included a blockade of Bougainville, put in
place by the PNG government with support of the Australian government.
A formal peace agreement was arranged in 2001.
The Peace Agreement included provision for a Referendum on Independence, which is currently
scheduled for November 2019, 2 months after the release of this video.
So what would Bougainville look like if it were to become a new country?
Recent estimates put the population at about 300,000 people.
This would make it a comparable size to other Oceanian states such as Vanuatu, and more
populous than another group of Oceanian islands with possible independence in its future – New
Caledonia.
Bougainville has a tropical climate, with lots of lush rain forests.
The current capital is Buka, on Buka island, although Arawa on Bougainville island was
the previous capital before being heavily damaged in the conflict of recent decades.
So what does the future look like for Bougainville?
Well, the referendum on independence is non-binding, which means even if independence is the most
popular outcome, it still has to be agreed to by the Papua New Guinean National Government.
I won’t try to pre-empt the result of the referendum or the PNG government’s subsequent
actions, but it is easy to imagine a situation in which a disconnect between what people
vote for and how governments respond causes further tensions to escalate.
From a more positive point of view it is also conceivable that if independence is voted
for, the PNG government may agree to it without any further escalation in tensions.
Although given the recent history we’ve just touched on, and PNG likely not wanting
to encourage other provinces to secede, it remains to be seen how likely this is.
This was a quick overview of a complex political situation that has unfolded over decades and
involves the real lives of hundreds of thousands of people.
However interesting it is to me to discuss the geopolitics and geography of a region,
and get excited by the prospect of a new country on the world map – it is important to remember
that the local people are the ones predominantly affected by conflicts, peace agreements, referenda
and possible new sovereign states.
The rest of the world will have to wait and see which direction the people of Bougainville
decide for their islands.
As always, thanks for watching and double-thanks if you’re a subscriber.
See you in the next video.