Flight cancelations, airspace bans, sanctions, and more. We covered much of the initial fallout
from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine which began in late-February. As the war goes on,
so have the sanctions and economic restrictions in the aviation world, against Russia.
Let’s take a look at what has transpired over the past few weeks in the world of aviation
as it pertains to the country and its actions in Ukraine...
Our first story emerged on March 11th but actually began on February 27th.
It was late last month that an Antonov An-124 landed in Toronto on a cargo mission.
However, due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine,
it appears that action was taken against the aircraft’s operators.
Indeed, reports emerged that the An-124 was seized by Canadian authorities
as the country, like many others around the world, issued sanctions against Russia
According to ch-aviation.com, the aircraft in question bears the registration RA-82078.
Clocking in at just over 27 years old,
the aircraft presently flies for Russian cargo carrier Volga-Dnepr Airlines,
the jet has done so consistently since its delivery there in September 1996.
ch-aviation reported that the aircraft flew to Canada carrying a shipment of COVID-19
testing kits ordered from China. Data from FlightRadar24.com shows that the last leg
of this journey took it from Anchorage to Toronto, arriving on February 27th.
Following Canada's airspace ban on Russian carriers and aircraft,
the country impounded it a day later in Toronto, where it has remained ever since.
That being said, Volga-Dnepr Airlines has been reportedly working to secure the aircraft's
return. This would either require an end or an exemption to Canada's ban on Russian planes and
operators. The airline said in a statement that it was engaging in the quote-unquote
"settlement of all formalities to be able to fly to its home base."
Perhaps highlighting its service to the people of Canada,
the operator confirmed the reason for the An-124's journey, stating:
"Volga-Dnepr Airlines operated a series of charters in the interests of the
Canadian government delivering vital Covid-19-related products from China.”
It has now been about a month since the Antonov arrived in Canada and enough time
has passed for airline fleet trackers like ch-aviation to change the aircraft's status
on its database from 'active' to 'stored.' It is difficult to know when sanctions might lift,
so it could be in for a long wait…
On March 12th, the Bermudan Civil Aviation Authority (BCAA) provisionally suspended the
Certificates of Airworthiness (CoA) of all Russian jets registered within the country.
In a statement posted to its website, the BCAA said:
“International sanctions on the aviation sector have had a significant impact on the ability to
sustain safety oversight on Russian operated aircraft on the Bermuda Aircraft Registry. The
airworthiness system has been restricted to the point that the Bermuda Civil Aviation Authority
is unable to confidently approve these aircraft as being airworthy.”
It’s no secret that many aircraft lessors have used the Bermudan register over Russia’s due
to uncertainties with the Russian legal system. As a result of the BCAA’s actions, the Russian
government has been scrambling to reregister all foreign-owned aircraft to the country.
In doing so, Russin airlines will be able to evade further CoA restrictions and maintenance tracking.
Russia has registered over 180 jets in the past few weeks, including Aeroflot’s newest A35s.
Head of the Aircraft Airworthiness at the Federal Air Transport Agency,
Valery Kudinov, noted that there were 70 aircraft in the Russian register in late February.
A few days later on Wednesday, March 16th we heard from Russia’s homegrown aviation industry
regarding how it plans to adjust to the onslaught of sanctions by international planemakers.
Already forced to develop Russian-built engines and composite parts for its upcoming MC-21
aircraft due to previous sanctions on materials, the most recent restrictions may prompt a speedier
development of its new narrowbody flagship. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov
recently acknowledge that the MC-21 project has now become more complicated,
since it was initially planned to depend on international cooperation.
However, Borisov said that work had not been suspended, with Aerotime Hub quoting him, saying:
“There is no pause in the work of enterprises and there will not be. Everyone continues to work.
Let me emphasize once again that we are speeding up the implementation
of our flagship projects MC-21 and SSJ-100.” On top of this, the head of Russia’s Rostec,
Sergei Chemezov, declared that a revival of other commercial aircraft programs could be
a possibility. Chemezov was quoted by Russian news agency Tass saying,
“In the context of serious restrictions on the operation of foreign-made civil aircraft,
large-scale tasks are facing the domestic aviation industry…This
primarily concerns the expansion of the production of existing aircraft.
In addition, it is necessary to consider the possibility of resuming the serial production
of medium-haul Tu-204/214 and the Russian wide-body airliner Il-96."
Of course, when it comes to aircraft currently able to fly in Russia,
the Sukhoi Superjet 100- or SSJ100, has become much more utilized in recent weeks.
According to analysis by Simple Flying’s own James Pearson, there are now 70,376
SSJ100 services planned between March and August- a jump of 15%. This development
also marks the first time monthly flights of the type have passed 10,000, hitting nearly 14,000.
Indeed, never have there been anywhere near as many services by this small twin-engine
aircraft type. The rise, especially now, is an indication of the current situation: Large
numbers of aircraft on the Irish aircraft register will be returned, repossessed, or even bought out.
And, as already discussed, the Bermuda CAA has withdrawn the certificate of airworthiness on
all its Bermuda-registered aircraft in Russia, leading to multiple aircraft
being reregistered onto the Russian register throughout much of March.
Additionally, Boeing, Airbus, Embraer,
and others have stopped supplying parts and support to Russian operators.
The most recent filings show the growth in flights is because of Rossiya,
which operates the aircraft for Aeroflot. Earlier this month, the carrier had planned
24,929 SSJ100 flights between March and August. That has now risen by 35% to 33,573.
It almost fully completely explains the rise, with other operators mainly flat, as shown here:
Rossiya's SSJ100 growth seems to be driven by big cuts to flights by its A320s, A319s, and 737-800s.
These types have seen flight cuts of 67%, 40%, and 37%, respectively.
These changes could be a way of ensuring schedule integrity
and continuing operations. However, a few more weeks should make the
picture clearer, especially as all of its A319s/A320s/B737s (and others) are leased.
Moving on, March 18th saw Russian cargo airline Volga-Dnepr Group announce that two of its
subsidiaries, AirBridge Cargo and Atran, will stop flying due as a result of Western sanctions.
Overall, 24 aircraft from the group will be grounded.
AirBridgeCargo and Atran operate exclusively with Boeing 747 and Boeing 737 freighters.
Again, this is mainly the result of moves made by Bermuda’s Civil Aviation Authority (BCAA)
to terminate the safety certificates on AirBridgeCargo and Atran’s fleet.
“The management of Volga-Dnepr has made a conscious decision to find a possible solution
together with partners and state regulators,” the firm said in information published by Reuters.
AirBridgeCargo has a fleet of 18 aircraft which consist of four Boeing 747-400s,
13 747-8Fs, and one 777-200F.
Volga-Dnepr Airlines owns two 747-8Fs, while the remaining units are leased with companies like
Aircastle, Aviation Capital Group, BOC Aviation, DAE Capital, GECAS, and SB Leasing Ireland.
Meanwhile, Atran has a fleet of nine aircraft, including
three Boeing 737-400(SFs) and six 737-800(BCF).
At least seven of the nine jets are leased with GECAS.
It’s clear that sanctions and airspace bans
are taking a major toll on Russian airlines- both passenger and cargo.
So why did a Volga Dnepr Ilyushin Il-76 registered in Russia fly from Ulyanovsk,
traverse Polish airspace, and land in the Slovakian capital Bratislava on March 17th?
Well, one sector where Europe has yet to distance itself from Russia is energy.
While there is no official confirmation for the March 17th flight, another Volga Dnepr
Il-76 flight landed in Slovakia on March 1st, when the airspace was already officially closed. This
earlier flight was reported to be carrying fuel for two Slovakian nuclear powerplants.
At the time, the Slovakian Economy Minister Richard Sulík stated to Euractiv,
“The Slovak economy now has reserves of another strategic commodity.
I am glad that we managed to bring the fuel.”
Sulík also said that his Ministry had collaborated with the Polish Ministry
of Foreign Affairs to allow the shipment to take place, which would explain the
flight path of the more recent flight through first Belarus and then Poland.
The exempted aircraft is a ten-year-old Ilyushin Il-76 cargo aircraft registered as RA-76511.
The jett first flew from Mineralnye Vody (MRV) on March 17th to Moscow Domodedovo (DME).
The plane remained in Moscow until for much of
the day before making the two and a half hour flight to Bratislava (BTS).
According to world-nuclear.org, about 15 million packages of radioactive material are
transported around the world each year. The International Atomic Energy Agency
(IAEA) has been issuing international regulations for their transportation
since 1961, with the latest update being released in 2018.
While there are about 440 operable nuclear power reactors in 32 countries,
uranium mining occurs in just 30 states - many of which have no nuclear power plants of their own.
For air transport, the IAEA regulations note that radioactive material must be
kept in so-called Type C packages and must be capable of maintaining their
containment upon impact onto a target, at a velocity of 90 meters per second.
So, while most Russian aircraft have been banned over Europe- there appear to be a few
special exceptions. Of course- it’s quite possible that Russia will choose to halt
With the war in Ukraine constantly unfolding, it’s clear that Russia’s aviation sector will
continue to be impacted. While it appears that most of the international aviation world
(outside of Russia) has made moves to cut the country off, we’ll just have to wait
and see what other moves will take place - either by Russia or other countries.
Do you think sanctions will lead to a resurgence of Russia’s domestic
aviation industry? Let us know by leaving a comment.