- Today the greatest risk of global catastrophe
doesn't look like this.
Instead it looks like this.
If anything kills over 10 million people,
in the next few decades,
it's most likely to be a highly infectious virus
rather than a war.
Now, part of the reason for this
is that we have invested a huge amount
in nuclear deterrents.
But we've actually invested very little
in a system to stop an epidemic.
We're not ready for the next epidemic.
The failure to prepare could allow
the next epidemic to be dramatically
more devastating than Ebola.
The best lessons I think on how to get prepared
are again what we do for war.
We need a Medical Reserve Corps,
lots of people who've got the training and background,
who are ready to go with the expertise.
And then we need to pair
those medical people with the military.
Taking advantage of the military's ability
to move fast through logistics and secure areas.
We need to do simulations.
Germ games not war games.
So that we see where the holes are.
Finally, we need lots of advanced R and D
in areas of vaccines and diagnostics.
There are some big breakthroughs like adeno-associated virus
that could work very, very quickly.
Now I don't have an exact budget for what this would cost,
but I'm quite sure it's very modest
compared to the potential harm.
The World Bank estimates
that if have a worldwide flu epidemic,
global wealth will go down by over $3 trillion,
and we'd have millions and millions of deaths.
If we start now
we can be ready for the next epidemic.
Thank you (audience applauding)
(logo whooshing)
So this is a serious problem,
we should be concerned.