No joke, there is already a new upgrade for the Model Y 4680 owners.
Now the Model Y Long Range currently has a
0 to 60 time of of 4.8 seconds, it does also have an upgrade for acceleration.
It's $3,000 for the Y and reduces the reduces the 0 to 60 time down to 4.2 seconds.
There is also a similar option for the Model 3 Long Range, for $2,000 reducing the 0 to
60 time to an impressive 3.7 seconds.
It increases acceleration but not at the sacrifice of range.
And now we are also hearing that this is an available option also for the new Austin Model
Y.
Again, the same 0 to 60 time as the Model Y Long Range with acceleration upgrade, down
to 4.2 seconds 0 to 60 time.
Thanks once again to the great YouTube channel Spoken Reviews.
Now supposedly according to insiders there
is not going to be a range upgrade.
But it still wouldn't surprise me if there was.
Sure, I would love it to be a thing, because it would mean that the 4680 cells are that
much better, and obviously the profit they will produce would be that much better if
they can upgrade range and performance.
It may not be an upgrade to 350 miles, but it might be an extension to 300 miles, that's
still quite a difference.
Again the Model Y reviewer from Spoken Reviews still thinks there will be a software upgrade
for range, and is very excited about it.
Personally I am still unsure, but what matters more is the speed at which they are produced,
and how quickly the energy density does improve.
I mean Tesla are so far ahead of the competition
they are able to limit their offerings with software.
There are certain elements of convenience, luxury, or excitement that people are willing
to pay more for, that make no difference to the mission whether they have them or not.
Like having a slightly faster accelerating car, will not also accelerate the mission.
But if Tesla makes cars that are just too good, and they want to hold back some of it
with software, and charge extra to unlock if fully, then they can get away with it due
to the lack of competition in the EV industry.
There could be all sorts of more software upgrades to come, perhaps a smorgasbord of
features, each costing thousands of dollars with 100% gross margin.
For example, can you guess the next software upgrade?
I think I can.
But if you are thinking of something that ends up not being what I suggest, write it
down in the comments.
In fact if any of you of you can also think of any software upgrades that Tesla could
add, aside from the ones we already have, then let me know, it might be interesting.
Anyway, one I could think of was, charging
speed.
Right now, according to insiders, the charging speed is definitely being software limited
to 200 kW, imagine if you could upgrade to 300 kW for $2,000 or something.
Tesla have spent a fortune, and a lot of blood, sweat and tears, in making the worlds best
battery.
As a result, perhaps it now charges faster than the previous batteries.
It may charge so much faster, that it saves you 10 minutes every time you charge.
That is value, Tesla have created true value, they have given you time.
Whereas Audi gives you luxurious orange stitching for an extra $3,000, it's not the same.
Remember Tesla is diamond, everyone else is glitter.
Of course the great thing is, that you can
buy the base car for less money, and eventually when you can finally afford it, you can start
upgrading it.
It's amazing.
And surely over time most vehicles are going to eventually unlock these features.
It's almost like buying a smaller house that you can afford, and then adding an extra bedroom
on and various extensions when you can afford them.
It's a pricing model that makes you rethink supply and demand.
"Consumers can't afford $70,000 on a new car" people like to say.
But what if it was just $60,000 now, and the remaining $10,000 over the next 3 years, when
it suited.
The difference is that after the average of 6 years of ownership, well where the customer
would usually sell their car, and replace it with a more modern version, well the Tesla
like already replaced itself with the latest version, with OTA.
The budget said consumer has for a replacement vehicle, well instead that could have been
used for upgrading the existing vehicle.
The end result is that said customer, still has the latest Tesla, yet didn't need to upgrade
their car, well actually they literally upgraded their existing car instead of replacing it.
Sure some of the hardware may be a little dated, but Tesla can replace that too if necessary.
The point is, it costs very little to stay up to date with the latest Tesla, compared
to the latest Mercedes.
And said budget can be used in upgrading the Tesla with the software features.
So what does this software actually mean as
far as specifications are concerned?
Well it means that the Austin Model Y is clearly capable of more acceleration than we realized,
or it has more power than we initially thought.
Now usually more acceleration comes at the cost of range.
Even the Model 3 Performance has less range than the Model 3 Long Range.
Now it's possible that that this extra acceleration
is due to the 4680 cells, supposedly having 6x more power and only 5x more energy.
i.e. the cells have a higher power increase relative to energy.
If both the Austin and Long Range Model Ys have the same amount of power, then at that
proportion it would mean that the Austin version would have just a 63 kWh usable battery.
Maintaining the battery day ratio of 6 times more power.
That is not the case, as we have seen it charge more than that.
So if we reverse engineer it the other way, we could find out the actual times more power
and energy the cells really have.
Ok now if the power is the same as the long range, at 413 kW, the same power as the Long
Range, and we take the usable battery size that we have seen at 68 kWh for the Austin
Model Y.
Using that data I played around with a few numbers we have as you can see in the table,
and I ended up getting an energy difference 4.8 times per cell, and a power difference
of 5.3 times per cell.
And 5.3 times more power with the 4680 cell over the 2170 cell.
Now of course if there is a battery upgrade to perhaps 80 kWh, then that changes everything
again.
Obviously the power would be the same, but it would mean that the 4680 cell has 5.7 times
more energy.
Which wouldn't appear to be the right specifications judging by battery day.
However, the power may be less, as the Austin Y is slightly lighter, the acceleration might
even be limited to 4.2, and its is actually quicker, but they don't want it to compete
with the performance, of course it probably uses the same powered motors as they Long
Range anyway.
Anyway, it seems we are already close to the
battery day target of how much more power and how much energy the cell will have compared
to the 2170, based on this new data.
However even if there is not a software upgrade, there will still be a chemistry upgrade, that
eventually we would hope that this car is capable of a much longer range than the Model
Y Long Range.
Despite the 4680 cell pack being so much smaller than a 2170, there is actually 3% more volume
for jelly roll.
We are expecting the chemistry to be better than 2170 eventually.
We can place 3% more this improved chemistry in the 2170 pack.
This 4680 pack is also saving significant weight due to the structure, etc.
Anyway, you know where I am headed here.
It would not be unrealistic to eventually expect a range in excess of 350 miles.
I mean perhaps high 300s.
I mean this has more volume than 2170, and is more energy dense, a 90 kWh battery is
not out of the question, and the weight would be very similar to it is now.
Of course the real issue with the software
upgrades is the osborne effect, or cannibalizing the Fremont Model Y Long Range.
Which has to make you think, even if it's not possible now, eventually the Austin Model
Y will have more range than the Long Range Fremont Model Y.
Under the assumption that Austin Model Y does require a minimum of 828 cells for structure.
It would therefore be inevitable that Austin would have more range.
I think there would be little point for the Long Range from Fremont if that was the case.
I think this is too conflicting.
So what about this, what if eventually Fremont ended up making the Standard Range LFP RWD
Model Y, same as the one from Shanghai?
I think it likely that there will be a Model 3 factory in Texas eventually too.
So it's possible Fremont could just serve as the LFP factory for the US, along with
S and X lines.
I have a feeling a lot has changed since the
last time Tesla offered the rear wheel drive Model Y.
As in consumers are now desolate that the Model Y is out of their price bracket.
Only to discover a Rear Wheel Drive version for potentially under $50,000.
Wow a brand new Model Y for under $50,000.
What's the catch?
About 230 miles of range.
Well I think consumers might be more willing to accept a lower range Model Y these days.
A standard range 2170 Model Y was initially for sale in the US, but Elon was not happy
with the range it offered, it felt off brand almost for Tesla, at least for the US market.
Consumers need to be less entitled and accept that they simply may not be able to afford
a long range EV, but the fact they can afford an EV, is a big enough deal, relative to oil
prices.
The lack of convenience of a standard range, is now over outweighing the inconvenience
of having less money each week after paying for gas.
I mean its highly possible when Tesla launched the Model Y they saw the demand they were
getting for the Y, and thought there is little point selling a standard range, when enough
people want this much more profitable Long Range version.
At the time Tesla were also production limited, rather than cell limited, so the opportunity
cost of making a standard range, was perhaps and additional $5,000 profit by making a Long
Range version.
Since then of course EVs have become more popular, consumers know Teslas more, and there
are more chargers around.
Range anxiety doesn't seem to be much of a thing any more.
Anyway, I am pretty sure we can all agree that a RWD Model Y would sell pretty well
in the US now, and Tesla cant be cannibalizing their 2170 line with 4680s.
On top of that we have Panasonic moving over to 4680 cells too, perhaps eventually to replace
the 2170 cells.
So for Fremont to move to just LFP, that could make sense.
Shanghai could possibly just be LFP, and the Indonesia could serve as 4680 export hub.
That might be a tidy solution, it would also remove the complications the 2170 cells bring.
Judging by this, it would seem that 2170 cells are getting in the way, and complicating product
lines.
Seeing what a hassle the cells potentially cause, and that Panasonic are now investing
into 4680s, I think it likely the 2170 cell does get retired perhaps in a couple of years.
And then, that would make for a very tidy operation.
Anyway, we digressed sightly there, I guess
it's just exciting to see what the greatest engineers in the world can achieve, if they
worked really hard for several years.
I am not ruling out a range upgrade with these new Teslas, however, if there is one, I am
not expecting it to be huge, I don't think it can risk cannibalizing the long range at
this stage.
It does seem logical to phase out the 2170 cells, and if that's easy enough to do, they
may even replace 18650 with 4680 too.