- [Narrator] Both NATO and Russia
have eyes on this Swedish island.
Once inhabited by Vikings
and as early as the eighth century,
this piece of land is of strategic importance.
That's because it's located in the center
of the Baltic Sea and is on NATO's European front line.
But it's also the only waterway
where Russia has direct access to the west.
Gotland is just one small part of how NATO could benefit
if Sweden and Finland become members of the block.
Both nations have said they will take steps
to apply for membership of the Western military alliance.
- But it is a very significant shift.
These are two countries that have sought
to take position of military non-alignment.
- Finish and Swedish membership in NATO
would greatly enhance the defense of the Baltic region
and reduce the chances of Russian adventurism
or attack across the air, land, and sea domains
in an integrated fashion.
- [Narrator] Analysts say the expansion
of the block could make NATO stronger
and affect Russia's current strategy in Ukraine.
To understand how, we need to look at the geography
and military capabilities of both countries.
The location of both Sweden and Finland
would mean the Alliance has significantly more land
in the east of Europe.
Take Finland, for example.
It has an 830-mile long border with Russia
but if we look a little closer,
we can see that this border is full of lakes
and marshland with very few roads
for military vehicles such as tanks to travel on.
Analysts say those conditions would be beneficial
for NATO in any potential combat situation with Russia.
- From a NATO point of view, it's a huge opportunity.
So you think about combat and Ukraine over by Kyiv,
where Russia was trying to push down really narrow roads.
That's Finland.
- [Narrator] One key area for Russia is the Kola Peninsula
where Moscow houses sub-launched ballistic missiles
that are key to its nuclear arsenal.
Currently, the only NATO country bordering the zone
is Norway, but analysts say if Finland joins the block,
it would increase pressure on the region.
- So suddenly, if Finland's having an exercise up here,
it's not just Norwegian forces,
you know, maybe a brigade or two,
now suddenly, it might be 50,000 troops.
So again, Russia has to now divert troops up there.
- [Narrator] In Sweden, Gotland is strategic for Russia
because it could be a base to protect its naval forces
in the Baltic Sea.
- And they would use that as a base of operations
for amphibious assault, for land attack,
for air attack and for naval attack.
- [Narrator] In 2017, NATO and Sweden worked together
on a simulated mission of a Baltic Sea attack
which Alberque said concluded the island
would be a central part of any invading strategy.
(missile blasting)
Although Finland and Sweden have been close NATO partners
for decades and worked on such joint missions,
they have remained militarily non-aligned.
For centuries, Sweden has largely avoided involvement
in military conflicts while Finland stayed out of NATO
after the Alliance formed in 1949,
largely to avoid provoking Russia.
- So the fact that they are deciding now
to potentially join the Alliance,
I think, is very significant and speaks to the sense
of vulnerability that countries feel
in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
- [Narrator] Russia's invasions of Georgia in 2008
and Crimea in 2014 sounded alarm bells in both nations
but the current war pushed them
to reconsider NATO membership.
In response, Russia, which has long stood against
any eastward expansion of the block has issued threats.
According to the Kremlin,
Russian President Vladimir Putin told the Finish president
that ending the country's decades-long
non-aligned defense policy would be a mistake for Helsinki.
And Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko
said that Moscow would need to take
adequate precautionary measures
if NATO were to deploy infrastructure
for nuclear weapons near Russia's borders,
including in Finland.
- I think one of the reasons that we saw the invasion
of Ukraine is because they are not a member of NATO
and that, you know, Russia felt that they could,
therefore, take the action they did
without incurring a direct response from NATO.
And so I think that is something that will be playing
into Moscow's of strategic calculus
that once these states are, if they become members of NATO,
then it will have to take a more indirect action.
- [Narrator] The addition of Finland and Sweden to NATO
would also enhance some of the block shortfalls
in air defense, according to Alberque.
- They do not have sufficient
vehicle-mounted air defense systems.
NATO air defenses, especially in the east
are very, very weak, and again,
this is a huge capability shortfall
that NATO's attempting to address.
- [Narrator] Sweden's advanced purchases
of air-launched cruise missiles
and Finland's $9.4 billion purchase
of 64 cutting edge US F-35 fighter jets
would significantly improve NATO's air defense
and attack capabilities.
And it could require Russia to add countermeasures
to that potential threat, analysts say,
spreading its resources thin
while trying to establish air dominance.
But some analysts also believe
that the introduction of Sweden and Finland
into the block could fit into a broader plan
by Russian President Vladimir Putin
to realign his forces to different regions.
- I think Russia thought a long time ago
that Finland and Sweden would end up joining NATO.
I think it helps Putin in terms of his messaging
that NATO is scary so that he can divert resources
from human development in Russia towards military.