Mali is the African story that is dominating headlines today. There are three things you
need to know about what is happening in Mali:
First, it is small in population – less than sixteen million people, landlocked, and
desperately poor. The expansion of the Sahara to the south, probably abetted by climate
change, means that a large portion of its population faces regular food shortages, even
famine. Mali regularly figures in UN appeals for famine relief in the Sahel. The north
of the country is mostly desert, sparsely populated, is dominated by the Taureg people,
who regard themselves as apart – perhaps superior to – the rest of the population.
It is the site of many of the great monuments of African Islamic civilization, such as Timbuktu.
The south dominates the economy and politics of the country. Northern resentment of southern
domination is long standing. Government Promises of federalism or increased local
autonomy over the past twenty years have regularly been made and broken.
Second, Mali was regarded as a model democracy, with regular elections and the transfer of
authority from one elected political leader to his successor. Last year, this ostensibly
democratic government was overthrown by a colonel who had been American trained. The
coup was widely welcomed, and the military remain popular. This coup showed how superficial
the connection was between the country’s elites that managed the elections and the
people they governed.
Third, a low level, long term insurrection in the north based on regional and ethnic
grievances was transformed by the influx of Qaddafi’s former mercenaries and their weapons.
They also brought with them a radical vision of Islam. With this new firepower, they rapidly
overcame the Malian army. The Bamako government’s failure to put down the insurgency was the
cause of the military coup. Qaddafi’s men – often called ‘Arabs’ because of
the North African origins and a quasi-criminal, quasi-radical Islamic group called al-Qaeda
in the Islamic Maghreb, quickly outmaneuvered the local rebels whose aim was to merely establish
an independent state. In power, they imposed a radical Islamic regime – complete with
the grisly sharia punishments of amputations and stonings. They supported themselves by
criminal activity, including narcotics trafficking. It remains unclear to what extent they were
part of the international jihadist movement, through radical training camps and other such
facilities appeared. Mali’s neighbors saw the emergence of this radical Islamic
state as a threat to their own security.
Under the auspices of the Economic Community of West African states, Mali’s neighbors
started to put together an African force to restore Bamako’s authority in the north.
It received formal UN Security Council authorization. It was anticipated that the force would
be ready to move in September. However, in direct response to appeals from Bamako, which
feared the rebels would soon take over the entire country, France intervened militarily
over the past weekend. It remains to be seen what the consequences will be. Initially
the intervention looked successful with the Islamists falling back, but already there
have been setbacks. There is also the risk that Western intervention – on behalf of
a government that came to power through a coup – will stimulate an anti-Western reaction
in other parts of the Sahel.