The biggest showdown in cinema this summer is not between 2 comic book movies or 2 massive
franchise blockbusters, no, its between two very opposite director driven films that have
started an online meme war, one that it surely only just beginning.
Christopher Nolan's Oppenheimer, a biopic on the real life story of the atomic bomb's
creator and Greta Gerwig's Barbie, an american comedy based on the Barbie
fashion dolls by Mattel and a 90s non-ficition book, are shapping up a true war of cinema.
So in this video, I'm going to be diving into what film might make more money at the box
office, whether thats opening weekend or over their total box office runs.
Before I get into it though, if you want to keep up to date on any
of my content surrounding movies releasing this summer which include Christopher Nolan's
Oppenheimer, then don't forget to support this upload by giving it a like rating, subscribing
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But without further a do, lets dive into the box office face off between Oppenheimer and
Barbie.
So let the battle commence.
Oppenheimer and Barbie are both releasing on July 21st and since their announcements,
both films have been getting a lot of buzz individually, but also
together as well.
It's become quite the meme to suggest that you'll go and see both films on opening weekend,
coming out of a hopefully joyful screening of Barbie and then diving
straight into the complex and anxious nature of J. Robert Oppenheimer's life.
Now if you're a subscriber on the channel you'll know that Oppenheimer is my most anticipated
film of the year, and of course, I would love to see that
film do as well as possible, if it is as good as I hope it will be.
But I'm going to be completely honest right off the bat.
I want to see both of these films on opening day and I hope
that both of them do as well as possible.
For me, there couldn't be a better sign towards the state of cinema if a film about Oppenheimer
and a film loosely based on the Barbie dolls do amazingly well having came out at the exact
same time.
Now yes we've seen multiple films perform well all at once, especially recently post
the big pandemic depression of cinema.
But two films that have equally captivated and intrigued a lot more people at the same
time, to me is a great indication of the rebuild that the
film industry has had since those issues a few years ago.
On top of that, having two director driven films, or ones that we assume are director
driven films, both performing equally well on their own merits is more uplifting
than seeing the next franchise film of comic book sequel do really well and everyone say
it saved cinema.
Now of course, I do want those films to do well at the same time, but again, I
just think its more hopeful for other genres of film when projects like Oppenheimer and
Barbie perform exceedingly well.
God I loved Top Gun Maverick, its one of my favourite films of
last year and one of my favourite blockbusters in recent memory, but if movies like Oppie
and Barbie make good money than that I think would be
a bigger achievement.
Yes Maverick was a blockbuster film done right and it was a sequel to a quite popular film,
but no one expected it to be as good as it was and make the money that
it did.
Now imagine two indidividually opposing director driven films both doing well all at the same
time.
That to me is the dream.
Now before you say it, no I'm not implying that
Oppenheimer and Barbie are going to make similar money to Top Gun Maverick.
Sure anythings possible, but no I think the 800 million to 1 billion range is probabaly
the abosulte maximum that I could see actually being possible.
But still, if both do well and outperform expectations, that to me is a good sign for
the state of cinema.
So now that I've expressed my hope for both Oppenheimer and Barbie doing well, how do
I think they will perform.
Well this first prediction is probabaly going to shock a lot of my viewers
but I will say that this is just the beginning of what I think is going happen in the long
run.
So on opening weekend, I think Barbie is going to beat Oppenheimer.
Yes Oppenheimer has had more trailer views overall, its had more
buzz when it comes to the potential quality of the film, but, I think like we see with
big franchises, or most big franchises today, brand name is very important on opening weekend,
especially if the movie is just good.
Barbie has a lot more brand recognition, there's no denying that.
And regardless of if the film is just ok and not the greatest, I think people
will go that opening weekend and Barbie will be a first choice on brand recognition alone,
especially amongst a lot of families.
Yes Oppenheimer is going to get a lot of people
in and I think as a film, it looks outstanding.
But I don't think that will help it top Barbie on opening weekend because that property,
director driven or not, is highly recognisable.
So when it comes to the short game and specifically, the opening weekend box office, I think Barbie
has the advantage there.
However, now we turn attention to the long haul and who might win overall.
I think this is a difficult one, because for starters, you're talking about two completely
different films.
Yes they've become attached with one another due to an online meme, but as films, when
it comes to the general audience, they are approaching different types of viewers.
Not to forget that Barbie will probabaly interest a lot
more traditional big audience fair and Oppenheimer has just been confirmed to be Christopher
Nolan's first rated R movie since 2002's Insomnia.
Now I don't think that the r rating will have as big as an effect as people are making out,
because this film as a topic is not aimed at that pg 13 audience, and to be honest I
think Nolan's fanbase, including myself, are of
an age range to watch Oppenheimer.
Yes it will take a bite out of those totals but whenever I've gone to see a recent Nolan
film whether it be Dunkirk or Tenet, both pg 13 movies, I barely
saw anyone in the cinema that was under that Rated R age range.
So for the special case of Oppenheimer, I don't think its really going to
effect it that much.
But then you have to consider that its probabaly going up against a movie where all different
types of audiences are welcome.
So with those initial points mentioned, I'm gonna go on a wild prediction.
While I think Barbie will win opening weekend, I think oppenheimer will win the long haul.
I think if this film is Christopher Nolan's great return to
some of his early iconic character work that consistantly did well, then I think the audience
will respond to that.
Even Tenet, probabaly Nolan's only less successful big release film,
made nearly $400 milion in the height of the pandemic with all the things going up against
it.
Not to mention that it was confusing some audiences and getting just fair reviews.
I like Tenet and you guys know that, but again, it
just shows that he has a big audience for what are mostly director driven films.
Dunkirk, which was a world war 2 survival thriller is still
the highest grossing world war 2 related movie of all time.
And I could go on and on about the success of the films he made prior to those last two
entries.
This is a filmmaker who has worked in numerous genres, made highly recieved
and successful films time and time again.
So regardless of me being a fan of his, its hard to go against him at the box office,
because his films have always done well.
And you just look at the online buzz for Oppenheimer through say trailer views and you'll see that
its making a truck load.
Now the same can be said about Barbie because while the first trailer
didn't do all that great when it came to buzz, the latest marketing has really set it through
the roof.
So both films right now, are riding a wave a hype and to be honest I think that
looks very hopeful for both of them being successful.
And while my prediction is that Oppenheimer wins the long term box office with
repetive viewings, I am hopeful that both movies can make a lot of money, based on the
early buzz we're seeing.
So this brings me to my final discussion point of the video and that is, how much money could
Oppenheimer and Barbie make.
Both films are budgeted around $100 million each and depending
how much is spent on marketing and extra costs you would presume that around 4-500 million
is by far a successful reach for both films.
But when it comes to what I think they will make,
I'm gonna go crazy and say both films look to be ones that could go north of $500 million.
I think Barbie in it's current state looks to be a film that could make anywhere between
400 and 700 if it is a good film.
Having brand recognition, havin got a lot of star names and at the end of day, if it
is a feel good film with a strong meesage, like the trailers seem to be
indicating, I'd say it could definitely hit the half billion mark.
With Oppenheimer, I think similar numbers are definitely on the table.
Yes its r rating could hurt it a small bit and the fact that its 3 hours long means less
screenings, but how many 3 hour films have we seen in recent years do incredibly well.
And on top of this its going to have a big premium
run in IMAX, which is something Barbie won't have.
If it is a oscar calliber film, if it makes great use of its extended cast and if the
film itself is incredibly powerful and relatable to today, then why can't it make a lot of
money, especially considering that Nolan's films traditionally in a full market do very
well.
Again, just look at Dunkirk or Nolan's original film releases.
It's coming out in a time right now where the world is quite fearful towards atomic
weapons and having a strong story around that with such huge prestige involved, makes
me think that this is also gonna make big numbers too.
It has half the budget that Tenet had, it's getting more buzz than that film and I think
that could lead to a potentially positive response.
So while I predict that Barbie will make around the half billion mark, I think Oppenheimer
will come anywhere between $500 and $700 million.
Again I do think this will all rest on how good these films are, and if one of
them is bad then it will definitely effect its performance.
But I do think that if Oppenheimer is as good as it looks, then in the long run, I
think it can just edge Barbie and make close to the $600 or $700 million mark.
In my opinion, it will be really close and I do hope they both are successful and continue
to signal the strength of movie theatres since the struggles
of the pandemic.
At the end of the day, theatres showing both Oppenheimer and Barbie have a chance to win
big, because they'll have audiences of all age ranges checking out both
films.
But that was my video discussing the potential box office of Christopher Nolan's Oppenheimer
and Greta Gerwig's Barbie.
Like I said, I think Barbie is going to win opening weekend, but I
also believe that if Oppenheimer is as good as it looks and combining that with Nolan's
revisiting audience, then I do think it can win the long game.
We'll have to see what happens and its definitely an interesting one considering
just how many films are releasing around that period.
Again though, I'm hoping that both do well when it comes to the box office because
that's only a better sign for the state of cinema, and I guess you just have to trust
that these movies turn out to be good and that the audience does check them out.
But what film do you think will make more on July 21st and
overall, which film are you more excited to see out of Oppenheimer and Barbie, if not
both.
Let me know down below in the comments section.
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