>>> THE DEATH TOLL CONTINUES TO CLIMB IN BEIRUT, WHERE AN
EXPLOSION OF MORE THAN 2700-TONS OF AMMONIUM NITRATE ROCKED
BEIRUT LAST WEEK, KILLING MORE THAN 200 PEOPLE AND LEAVING
300,000 PEOPLE HOMELESS.
PAUL MUSGRAVE, ASSISTANT PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE
AT U. MASS AMHERST, SPOKE WITH US ON WHAT'S HAPPENING IN
LEBANON AND ON CONTINUED PROTESTERS AND CONCERNS IN HONG
KONG AFTER CHINA ENACTED A NEW NATIONAL SECURITY LAW.
>> WELL, IT HAS BEEN A DRAMATIC WEEK, 10 DAYS SINCE THE
EXPLOSION.
PROBABLY THE MOST IMPORTANT THING POLITICALLY IS THAT THE
GOVERNMENT HAS RESIGNED, WHICH MEANS THAT THEY'RE NOW A
CARETAKER GOVERNMENT, WHICH MEANS THAT IRONICALLY THEY ARE
LESS WELL PLACED TO MAKE ANY OF THE CHANGES THAT PROTESTERS HAVE
BEEN DEMANDING IN RESPONSE TO THE EXPLOSION, IN RESPONSE TO
EVERYTHING THAT'S HAPPENED.
THEY'RE NOW JUST A CARETAKER, THEY CAN'T DO ANYTHING.
OF COURSE THE MOST PRESSING HUMANITARIAN CHALLENGE IS THE
FACT THAT THE COURT HAVING BEEN DESTROYED MEAN --
THE PORT HAVING BEEN DESTROYED, MEANS THAT IT'S VERY DIFFICULT
TO GET FOOD INTO LEBANON.
AND THAT'S NOT JUST AN ISSUE FOR THE LEBANESE PEOPLE, IT'S ALSO
AN ISSUE FOR THE MORE THAN 1.5 MILLION REFUGEES FROM
PALESTINE, FROM SYRIA WHO LIVE IN LEBANON WHO ARE NOW OF COURSE
UNABLE TO GET FOOD, AND ALSO FOR PEOPLE IN THE INTERIOR
THEMSELVES, BECAUSE THE PORT IS ONE OF THE WAYS THEY'VE GOTTEN
SUPPLIES INTO SYRIA.
SO THERE HAVE BEEN PROTESTS, THERE HAVE BEEN DEMANDS EVEN
SOMEWHAT OUTRAGEOUSLY FOR THE INTERNAL COMMUNITY TO BY-PASS
THE GOVERNMENT AND TAKE CONTROL OF THE SITUATION.
BUT IT'S BEEN A TUMULTUOUS TIME.
THIS IS A COUNTRY WITH EXTREMELY COMPLEX POLITICS WHERE FROM
ALMOST A YEAR THEY'VE BEEN IN THE MIDDLE OF HUGE PROTESTS AND
NOW WITH COVID AND EVERYTHING ELSE THE COUNTRY IS SUFFERING
ITS WORST ECONOMIC CRISIS, EVEN BEFORE THE EXPLOSION.
SO IT IS JUST AN AMAZING AND VERY SAD TIME FOR A GREAT
COUNTRY.
>> YOU MENTIONED ABOUT THE REFUGEES, BUT THERE'S ALSO IN
BEIRUT ITSELF MORE THAN 300,000 PEOPLE WHO ARE HOMELESS, MORE
THAN 200 PEOPLE KILLED, YOU KNOW, SO MANY MORE WHO ARE
MISSING.
IF YOU GO BACK TO OCTOBER, YOU HAD MENTIONED OTHER PROTESTS
THAT HAD BEEN CONTINUING BECAUSE OF THE ECONOMIC CRISIS THERE.
CAN YOU EXPLAIN A LITTLE BIT ABOUT THE MAKEUP OF THE
GOVERNMENT AND WHAT PART HEZBOLLAH PLAYS WITHIN THE
GOVERNMENT STRUCTURE.
>> SO, AS YOU MAY KNOW, LEBANON IS COMPRISED MOSTLY OF THREE
MAJOR ETHNICITIES, THERE'S THE CHRISTIANS, SUNI MUSLIMS AND
SHIITE MUSLIMS, AND DIVISION OF THOSE LED TO A CIVIL WAR THAT
LASTED FOR MORE THAN 15 YEARS.
SO THOSE DIVISIONS CONTINUE IN THE GOVERNMENT, WHERE THE
PRESIDENT, PRIME MINISTER AND SPEAKER OF THE LEBANESE
LEGISLATURE ALL COME FROM ONE OF THOSE GROUPS.
AND THESE ARE PEOPLE WHO PRIMARILY GAINED POWER DURING
THE CIVIL WAR, THEY'RE PRACTICALLY WARLORDS.
BACK IN OCTOBER OF 2019 AS THE ECONOMY WAS FALTERING, THE
GOVERNMENT TRIED TO INTRODUCE NEW TAXES.
THIS SET OFF WIDESPREAD REVOLTS, PROTESTS, THAT KICKED OFF WHAT'S
CALLED THE OCTOBER REVOLUTION IN WHICH THE PEOPLE WERE RISING UP
AGAINST THIS WHAT THEY VIEW AS THE CORRUPT POWER ELITE.
THERE'S ALSO A SENSE THAT THE POWER ELITE IS TOO CLOSELY
INVOLVED WITH HEZBOLLAH, A TERRORIST ARMED MILITANT GROUP
WITH CLOSE TIES TO IRAN THAT MANY PEOPLE SAY MIGHT HAVE HAD A
ROLE IN THIS, PURE SPECULATION, IN STOCKPILING THE AMMONIUM
NITRATE THAT WAS AT THE PORT THAT CAUSED THAT GIANT
EXPLOSION.
SO THERE'S A REALLY COMPLEX SITUATION IN WHICH THE TWO SIDES
ARE NOW CREATING ACCUSATIONS OF EACH BEING CONTROLLED OR DUPED
BY FOREIGN INFLUENCE.
A LOT OF PEOPLE ON THE STREETS ARE NOT TAKING THAT SERIOUSLY.
SO THIS WAS A COUNTRY THAT WAS, IF YOU'LL FORGIVE THE PUN,
ALREADY IN A COMBUSTIBLE SITUATION BEFORE THE EXPLOSION
AND THE EXPLOSION HAS ONLY MADE THE TENSIONS WORSE.
A COUPLE DAYS AGO MANY GOVERNMENT BUILDINGS WERE
OCCUPIED BY PROTESTERS, THE GOVERNMENT CHASED THEM OUT, BUT
CLEARLY THINGS ARE AT A PRECARIOUS AND VOLATILE TIME
RIGHT NOW IN BEIRUT.
>> AND IT CERTAINLY MAKES IT DIFFICULT AND COMPLICATED FOR
THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO RESPOND, AND HOW WILL THEY
RESPOND OR HAVE THEY BEEN RESPONDING?
>> IT'S GOING TO BE VERY DIFFICULT.
THERE WAS A FRENCH-LED SUMMIT OVER THE WEEKEND THAT RAISED
300 MILLION IN RELIEF, THAT'S A LOT, OBVIOUSLY, AND THE FRENCH
PRESIDENT HAS BEEN VERY VISIBLE IN LEADING RELIEF EFFORTS, HE
ACTUALLY VISITED BEIRUT AND WAS MOBBED BY SUPPORTERS.
SO THAT WAS A LITTLE SURPRISING.
BUT THAT'S WELL SHORT OF THE $15 BILLION IN REPORTED DAMAGE
THAT BEIRUT SUSTAINED.
AND THE UNITED STATES HAS NOT BEEN PLAYING ITS USUAL ROLE AS A
MOVER OF AID, PARTLY BECAUSE THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IS SO
SUSPICIOUS OF THE INSTITUTIONS THAT IT'S NOT GOING THROUGH THE
NORMAL ROUTES THAT YOU WANT TO GO THROUGH TO HANDLE A
CATASTROPHE OF THIS MAGNITUDE.
SO I WOULD SAY THAT IT'S MIXED BUT NOT AS HOPEFUL AS WE WANT.
AND THE BACKGROUND CONDITION FOR ALL OF THIS IS THE COVID-19
PANDEMIC, WHICH JUST COMPLICATES EVERYTHING TREMENDOUSLY IN TERMS
OF COORDINATING AND MANAGING A HUMANITARIAN EFFORT.
>> LET'S MOVE RIGHT NOW TO HONG KONG, WHERE THERE'S SOME OTHER
ISSUES GOING ON THERE AS WELL INCLUDING CHINESE NEW NATIONAL
SECURITY LAW.
I KNOW THEY HAD ARRESTED A MEDIA MOGUL RECENTLY.
TELL ME ABOUT WHAT'S GOING ON THERE AND THE IMPLICATIONS FOR
THAT.
>> WHEN CHINA TOOK HONG KONG IN 1997, THERE WAS A PROVISION IN
THE BASIC LAW IN THE HANDOVER DOCUMENT THAT EVENTUALLY HONG
KONG WOULD HAVE TO ACT SEED TO A LAW BY WHICH BEIJING COULD
ENFORCE NATIONAL SECURITY PROVISIONS TO MAKE SURE THAT
HONG KONG WOULDN'T BE A MAJOR THREAT TO BEIJING AND THE
PEOPLES REPUBLIC OF CHINA.
THAT NEVER GOT PASSED, THEY COULD NEVER GET IT THROUGH THE
HONG KONG LEGISLATURE, WHICH HAS BEEN OPPOSED TO THE RULE OF THE
COMMUNIST PARTY OF CHINA.
THEY FINALLY GOT THAT THROUGH, IT'S BEEN KIND OF A CORRUPT
DEAL, MANY PEOPLE IN HONG KONG HAVE BEEN DISSATISFIED WITH
THIS, WERE UPSET WITH THIS.
THERE WERE OF COURSE PROTESTS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THIS
YEAR.
UNDER THE AUSPICES OF THIS LAW, THE COMMUNIST PARTY, THE PRC AND
HONG KONG'S GOVERNMENT HAVE MOVED QUICKLY TO SILENCE AND
EXTINGUISH OPPOSITION, PROBABLY THE MOST VISIBLE ASPECT OF THIS
HAS BEEN ARRESTING JIMMY LI AND STORMING THE NEWSROOM OF HIS
NEWSPAPER.
THIS HAS BEEN ONE OF THE FOCAL POINTS FOR DEMOCRATIC CONTENTION
OR RESISTANCE TO BEIJING'S RULE IN HONG KONG.
AND IT'S REALLY BEEN ONE OF A SERIES OF MEASURES OF ARRESTS
AND SURVEILLANCE THAT HAVE SHOWED THAT BEIJING IS NOT
COMMITTED TO MAINTAINING ONE COUNTRY, TWO SYSTEMS.
AND MANY OBSERVERS ARE SAYING THAT ONE COUNTRY TWO SYSTEMS,
THE RUBRIC BY WAY THEY WOULD CONTINUE IS BASICALLY OVER.
SO THIS IS REALLY JARRING AND IT'S BEEN REALLY SUDDEN AND IS
VERY SAD TO SEE A DEMOCRACY KIND OF BEING EXTINGUISHED BY
BEIJING.
>> THAT ONE PARTY TWO SYSTEMS WAS SUPPOSED TO LAST UNTIL 2047?
>> IT WAS SUPPOSED TO LAST FOR A LONG TIME, THAT'S RIGHT, 50
YEARS FROM THE HANDOVER.
>> AND THOSE PROTESTS GOING ON SINCE LAST YEAR, AGAIN PEOPLE
CALLING ON CHINA BEING CORRUPT AND ENCROACHING ON THOSE RIGHTS
THAT THEY HAVE ENJOYED IN HONG KONG.
>> YEAH AND THAT'S BEEN SOMETHING THAT HAS MOBILIZED
HONG KONG'S PROTESTERS FROM THE UMBRELLA MOVEMENT EIGHT OR 10
YEARS AGO THROUGH LAST YEAR AND, YOU KNOW, HONG KONG, THEY'VE
EVEN HAD THEIR ELECTIONS FOR LOCAL LEGISLATIVE COUNCILS
POSTPONED BY A YEAR, USING COVID AS A COVER.
BUT I THINK THAT IT IS FAIR TO SAY THAT WHEN YOU HAVE AN
ELECTION FOR A LEGISLATURE POSTPONED FOR A YEAR UNDER THESE
CIRCUMSTANCES YOU REALLY HAVE TO WONDER IF THOSE ELECTIONS WILL
EVER BE HELD AGAIN.
THE FOLKS THAT ARE ON THE GROUND THERE, THEY ARE ACTUALLY NOT
BEING CRITICAL BECAUSE AT THIS POINT IT IS SO DANGEROUS TO BE
CRITICAL OF HONG KONG THAT YOU RISK A LOT.
SO WE'VE SEEN THIS VIBRANT POLITICAL CULTURE JUST STAMPED
OUT, ALMOST OVERNIGHT.