hey everyone just wanted to check in with our quick video um been super busy this past week uh
in fact i've gotten behind some of the comments again that was pretty good through thanksgiving
and um but i will definitely try to get back to those but i wanted to make a quick video today um
probably a little less polished than most but i just wanted to share some information with
you on rivian and their quiet period ending um we've talked about quiet periods in the past
on the channel but i know a lot of you guys are new to the channel because of rivian because we
have done some videos on it since the ipo so i want to talk a little bit about how
a quiet period can affect rivian and how that might affect your trading strategy
and we'll do that as we'll consider some of the things that have happened since the ipo
so really quickly i want to show you a few things on the screen that has impacted the price of
the stock and then we'll talk a little bit more about the quiet period and how that might affect
your trading strategy and again then i'll give you the rivian quiet period ending date
so hang on for that but first let's talk a little bit about the stock and where it's gone
so as you can see here this is how the stock has traded since it started trading on november 10th
as you remember prices 78 dollars opened up in that low hundred dollar range and then
we went on for a few days where it just was like the sky's the limit and so um so it was looking
pretty good for people that missed out you were probably concerned that if you really wanted it
um other people were probably thrilled to death that they got in early uh then we
started to see a pretty quick decline here and there was a few things that um tend to really
impact the stock so there's like there's a couple things we want to talk about today and just i want
to give you my thoughts on if they're a big deal or not a big deal so the first thing was the news
with ford and as you can see on the screen that the headline ford deriving we're breaking up
and so it's a couple things number one ford has invested in rivian for quite a while up until the
end of october we thought that was a five percent stake and one of the um viewers out there in the
comments noted that that was actually 12 and that that is true that actually got updated at the end
of october but i didn't put that in a follow-up video so i always appreciate when somebody points
something out and adds to the discussion so really appreciate that so it's 12 percent stake
but at the end of the day like i never was worried about them with rivian and actually building
vehicles for ford we had known earlier which had mentioned in one of the videos was that they
had been working on a lincoln suv that got discontinued like they basically started
working on it and then the plans just changed and they dropped it when i looked at rivian
i did never put into my calculations and you guys know i put out a more recent
revenue projections video didn't put in any revenue that we expected from working with ford
so that was to me not a big issue and at this point it's not that ford is bailing on rivian
in fact again they like i said they just have 12 percent of the stake of the company
however they're not looking to sell any of the shares at this point although nothing they really
could because they were in the lockup period but they actually increased their investment recently
so as far as my opinion is this is not a huge deal now you can you disagree with me definitely
put that in the comments but for me it's not a big deal so the second big piece of news that came out
um again which which coincided with a lot of the stock price dropping was that amazon backed
ev firm rivian delays deliveries of r1s suv's report and so that came out see november 24th
um and to me this is the bigger deal because we expected based on what was in the company's
ipo or s1 filing rivian said that we could expect the first deliveries
to happen basically by the end of the year and now what we're seeing is that rivian has
now started sending emails to the customers to inform that the delivery window has been changed
to between may and july at the earliest okay so to me this is a big deal because
for two things one in the grand scheme of things it's probably not you you're pushing things back
but one of the biggest concerns i had with rivian was it's a new company and they have to execute
and they're going to execute quickly because there's a lot of competition coming
and you know they just can't afford to fall behind so by 2030 this will be a blip however
you start to wonder can they execute as smooth as they need to with all of this competition coming
and this has been one of my biggest concerns with rivian i like the look of the products however
you're going to be competing with some products are going to be a lot cheaper or a lot more cost
effective and so when people have more options it's it's going to be potentially a problem uh
for the company so i'm more concerned about that we did talk about the revenue projections and
which i basically said by the end of 2024 um you would expect for that year in
2024 2025 so this will put a blip into that but where it's going to hurt is on those first few
earnings reports um and then we're going to be really interested to see what the guidance is
so a couple things you really want to keep an eye on there when it comes to um when it comes
to rivian all right so that leads us to the main part of this video which is the quiet period so
and for time's sake i just went to investopedia just to show you this we've actually talked about
quiet periods before on the channel so again this is for really anybody new that's not
heard me talk about them but just to give you a really quick idea is when a company is going to
do an ipo such as rivian did there's a period of time where there's no information that comes out
so what i want to sort of just jump up ahead here okay is the time frame
so in the green part it talks about the quiet period begins when the registration statement
is made effective and lasts for 40 days after the stock starts trading and is for analysts
employed by the offering managing underwriters but then i put in here in the yellow for and 25
days for analysts employed by other underwriters participating in the ipo so for all types of
purposes the quiet period is going to end 25 days after the stock started trading and again for the
sake of the time for this video and again just the time that i have i'm going to link a video for you
in the description that talks about a little bit more about the quiet period it's to one of the i
actually applied it to another company um and just talked about it there so definitely check that
video out but for all intents and purposes for the quiet period is you're talking about underwriters
or analysts that's involved in the ipo so right off the bat you feel like there's a positive
news that's going to come from the companies or the analysts but what tends to happen is based
on where the stock is trading so if the stock is trading way higher than the ipo price when the
analysts come out there's a good chance that they could say you know the stock is priced pretty high
we don't recommend it being a buy right now whether it's a hold or sell
whatever but typically the analyst reports are pretty positive so we know that they're going to
be to predisposed to be positive because they're going to participate in the company's ipo however
it really works best when you know that the price is really close to the ipo price or even below it
if you see a quiet period and for a stock and the stock is trading well below the ipo price or right
around it you can be pretty sure that the analysts are going to come up with a buy have a price
target that's higher than where it is and it's going to push the stock up at least in the short
term so just for the traders out there the short term guys that like looking in get in and get out
it's something to keep an eye on but for rivian you're talking about a few things going on here
the stock right now we saw was about 110 as close to the end of the day thursday which brings us
to about what is that 20 30 30 some dollars above the ipo price so it's it's above um and
we know there's a lot of issues going on with this new variant that's out there so the stock
you know with the pandemic that's still being an issue um and we also know that we have some
bad news that we're factoring in here and again we're going to get at least delay of some revenue
by these suvs coming out later um so we're going to have to really watch more of the news
you know again so how well is rivian going to execute with getting their products to the market
and that answer is going to take a little while to unfold but we're going to find this over time and
the question for you tell yourself as an investor is do you feel like it's a safe time to jump in
and do you trust that the company can execute when you see this news so quick after the ipo that
there's already a delay it has to cause some red flags there so something to definitely keep in
mind so getting back to my main point about where the stock is trading based on the ipo
price this is going to be a trickier one it's not a cut and dry um had the stock
still at that 170 dollar i would say you're not going to get a bump from it at this 110
dollar range you could i'm still skeptical if you would now again if the stock was trading a lot
lower um or below the ipo price i would say good time to sort of jump in at least get that initial
bump um you know again you can't never predict anything but you just tend to see these trends so
just for something for you to keep in mind that's why i want to get this video out so quickly
and even though um again it's a little a little quick here but anyways so of course now that
we talked about this with the quiet period the big question is when does it exactly end
so one more time we'll look at the screen and i have a calendar up here and as you can see or if
we look into november this when the ipo happened was november 10th so if we count our days 7 14
21 and then we get to december and we get 22 23 24 25th days over the weekend
so you can pretty much expect on monday december the 6th is when they're going to start seeing
analyst reports so i wanted to get this video out so that you have friday so if you see this
tonight or during the day friday that if you want to act on this you can uh again i'm not telling
you whether you should buy stock or sell stock or i'm not telling you anything like that it's just
understanding that the quiet period is ending and it is one of those times where you can consider
um you know looking at what the price is and consider do you think the stock could get a
bounce from it or or not so anyways that's what this video was really for just to give you a quick
idea on the quiet period some of the most recent news and why the stock might be where it is and
you know hopefully gives you some idea of what you want to do with it so with that being said i hope
you liked this video so again please push the like button if you're new to the channel please
subscribe we'd love to have you on board um you know we talk a lot about ipos but we have a lot
of other things coming so this is not going to be a 100 percent rivian channel like some
other people might do um it's just that there's been a lot going on early so i wanted to cover
all that and uh and we'll talk about more about rivian as as major things come up but we'll also
have some other things so i like to do some general investing types of strategies and and
whatnot and i actually have more of a general type of video planned sooner than later so definitely
uh put that notification bell on so you know when it comes as soon as it comes out and then
and then as i always like to just share with you anybody that's new i have a second channel
it's called how to with kevin which i'll link for you in the description it just shows you
some other things that i've done and we've only done a few videos so far but it's gone pretty
well and i enjoy it um it's just non-financial type of things and you know we all deal with new
things and try to figure it out well that's something i love to do whether it's you know
building something whether it's maintaining something whether it's fixing something
um whether it's learning finance but i try to keep the financial part uh onto this channel which is
sort of the main channel but if you are interested definitely check out my other channel how to with
kevin i love to have you there uh anyways uh have a great rest of the week a great weekend i will be
talking to you guys sooner than later again been super busy so if you have any comments from me in
the other videos i'll be getting to them hopefully in the next couple of days but uh it's that time
of year things get crazy right so anyways i look forward to talking to you guys soon take care