Good afternoon, this is Jonathan with the National Weather Service in Norman, with a
severe weather briefing regarding this Saturday and Sunday.
Ok, first and foremost, here are our current thoughts, and I want to stress the word current.
At the moment, and as always, this far out, time wise, there are always quite a few questions,
but not a whole lot of definite answers.
With the recent suite of afternoon model guidance, the ingredients for storms will exist on Saturday
across the region.
However, it’s the combination/interactions of these ingredients that we’ll need to
continue to monitor closely.
Lets take a look at what we currently know about Saturday.
There are four basic ingredients to severe weather.
Lift, Instability, Moisture, and Wind Shear.
We’ll have the lift, with the dry line and upper level system, but the timing of these
are still in question.
We’ll have Instability, but how much?
That will hinge on how much moisture makes it’s way back into the region.
Lastly, all indications point to decent wind shear, both low level and deep layer shear
for Saturday, especially into the late evening hours.
For Sunday, showers will be ongoing across much of the region Sunday morning, which will
impact the OKC Memorial Marathon, the Arts Festival, and the Norman Music Festival.
No severe storms, but lightning will pose a risk.
Later in the afternoon and evening, storms will quickly push out to the east, with storms
well east of I-35.
Ok, so what can you do now?
First off, Have a plan, we say it every time, but you have to have a plan for you, your
family, or even your business.
Need help making a plan?
I’ll put the link to our severe weather safety page in the video description below.
This forecast will change, we will continue to update the forecast as we gain more information
and gain more confidence.
This is nothing new for us, Oklahomans and Texans are weather savvy people, if you are
new to Oklahoma or Texas, check out our safety page, stay weather aware and you’ll gain
confidence on how to approach severe weather.
Don’t Panic, we know it’s easy to get wrapped up in the worst case scenario, but
just stay calm and stay weather aware, find a trusted source for your weather information.
Lastly, Have a Plan, I know I sound like a broken record, but this is the best way to
keep piece of mind.
Don’t let a threat of thunderstorms or severe weather rule your life.
If you have a plan of action established well before severe weather presents itself, you
will have the tools and confidence to face severe storms.
Storms will likely develop late Saturday afternoon, and more likely in the early evening hours
across western Oklahoma and western north Texas, the greatest risk for severe storms
during this time frame will be across southwestern Oklahoma and western north Texas.
Large, damaging hail, damaging winds are the primary hazards, and the occurrence of tornadoes
cannot be ruled out.
Storms will spread eastward into the evening hours, with the threat of large damaging hail,
damaging winds, and tornadoes remaining possible.
Those attending the numerous outdoor events going on across the region will need to stay
weather aware.
Make sure you find suitable shelters at any venue you attend.
When a warning is issued, that is not the time to start looking for shelter, you should
already have in mind where to go.
Overnight, storms will gradually decrease in severity, but damaging hail and winds remain
possible.
For Sunday morning, rain and thunderstorms will linger across the region, unfortunate
for those of you running the OKC marathon.
Severe storms are not expected during this time frame, but a few may produce hail up
to the size of half dollars and strong wind gusts.
What unfolds Sunday night will hinge on how things evolve late Saturday through Sunday
Morning.
At the present time, the greatest potential for severe storms will exist east of the I-35
corridor.
Not to be outdone, fire weather concerns will be elevated, with extreme conditions behind
the dry line Sunday.
In closing, remember, don’t be scared, be prepared!
Have a plan and stay weather aware.
If you’re attending any of the numerous events going on across the region this weekend,
it is imperative you stay weather aware.
Ask those running the events where you can shelter in the event of severe weather.
Always have multiple ways to receive warnings, don’t wait for outdoor warning sirens to
alert you to an impending hazard.
weather.gov/norman Thanks again for watching, as always, the
best place to find the most accurate and up to date forecast and warning information is
on our webpage, at www.weather.gov/norman.
You can also, like us on Facebook, follow us on twitter, and subscribe to our youtube
channel.
Thanks again, and have a wonderful day!