every day the tension around taiwan is growing chinese provocations have become more frequent
and the threat of military conflict is growing at a tremendous rate so far washington has adopted a
wait-and-see policy and is in no hurry to send troops to taiwan as required by the treaty is
there a possible conflict between taiwan and the united states on the one hand and china on the
other when exactly can the conflict begin we will answer these questions in today's video welcome
to the world situation channel don't forget to subscribe to the channel and like it so as not
to miss the release of new videos washington has a long-standing policy of strategic uncertainty
as to whether it will intervene militarily in the event of a chinese attack on taiwan
chinese president xi jinping said that reunification with taiwan must be carried
out and did not rule out the possible use of force to achieve this china views self-governing taiwan
as a breakaway province that will eventually become part of the country again however taiwan
considers itself an independent country with its own constitution and democratically elected
leaders taiwan is an island located about 100 miles off the coast of southeast china
it is located in the so-called first island chain which includes a list of us-friendly territories
of crucial importance for u.s foreign policy some western experts suggest that if china sees taiwan
it would be freer for it to project power in the western pacific region and perhaps even threaten
us military bases on islands as far away as guam and hawaii but china insists that its intentions
are exclusively peaceful the split between them occurred after world war ii when fighting was
going on in mainland china between nationalist government forces and the communist party of china
the communists won in 1949 and their leader mao zedong took power in beijing meanwhile the
nationalist party known as the kuomintang fled to neighboring taiwan since then the kuomintang has
been one of taiwan's most prominent political parties ruling the island for much of its
history currently only 13 countries plus the vatican recognize taiwan as a sovereign state
china exerts considerable diplomatic pressure on other countries not to recognize taiwan
or do anything that implies recognition taiwan's defense minister said that relations with china
have become the worst in the last 40 years china may try to achieve reunification by non-military
means such as strengthening economic ties but in any military confrontation china's armed forces
will surpass taiwan's forces china spends more on defense than any other country except the united
states and can use a huge range of capabilities from naval power to missile technology aircraft
and cyber attacks most of china's military power is concentrated elsewhere but for example in
terms of active military personnel there is a huge imbalance between the two sides some
western experts predict that in an open conflict taiwan may at best try to slow down china's attack
try to prevent the landing of chinese amphibious forces on the shore and launch gorilla strikes
waiting for outside help this assistance may come from the united states which sells weapons
to taiwan so far washington's policy of strategic ambiguity has meant that the us has deliberately
not made it clear whether it would defend taiwan in the event of an attack and if so
how diplomatically the us currently adheres to the one china policy which recognizes only one
chinese government in beijing and has formal ties with china not taiwan but on monday u.s president
joe biden appeared to toughen washington's stance asked if the u.s would defend taiwan militarily
mr biden replied yes he also drew a parallel between the possibility of china attacking taiwan
and russia's invasion of ukraine the idea that it taiwan can be taken by force just taken by force
is simply not appropriate simply inappropriate it will ruin the whole region and there will be
another action similar to what happened in ukraine in 2021 china seems to have stepped
up the pressure by sending military aircraft to taiwan's air defense zone a self-proclaimed zone
where foreign aircraft are identified tracked and controlled in the interests of national security
taiwan has released data on aircraft attacks in 2020 the peak in the number of registered aircraft
occurred in october 2021 when 56 incursions were made in one day on tuesday senior u.s intelligence
officials warned that china is working hard to carry out a military takeover of taiwan
and beijing is closely monitoring russia's invasion of ukraine to assess the level of
potential american opposition director of national intelligence avril haynes told lawmakers from the
senate armed services committee that the threat to taiwan is acute we believe they the chinese
are working hard to effectively put themselves in a position where their armed forces are capable
of taking over taiwan despite our intervention haynes told panelists haines and the head of the
u s department of defense intelligence agency lieutenant general scott barrier added that the
us still does not know what the chinese could have learned from president vladimir putin's
bloody invasion of ukraine during which russian forces were largely stymied by fierce resistance
from kiev but barrier said china has learned some very interesting lessons from the war in ukraine
including the need for effective military leadership tactics of small units and training
in the use of appropriate weapons systems as well as the need for a professional non-commissioned
officer corps which russia lacks beijing regards taiwan as part of its territory and threatens to
take control of the island state by force if necessary hane said she believes the war in
ukraine which began after russia's invasion on february 24th is unlikely to accelerate
china's plans for taiwan and barrier said china would preferred not to deploy its armed forces
i believe that the prc people's republic of china would preferred not to do this seizing taiwan by
force i think that over time they would prefer to do it peacefully he said haines said china
was surprised by how quickly the u s and europe have come together to counter the invasion by
imposing sanctions on russia which they will obviously consider in the context of taiwan
she added that the course of events in ukraine may give them less confidence in what might happen
during a potential invasion of taiwan the united states recognizes china's claims to sovereignty
over taiwan under the one china policy but supported taipei's independence by providing
weapons to defend it at the same time china has increased its military presence in the region and
conducted military exercises near taiwan most recently last weekend when taiwan had to take
planes into the air to confront 18 chinese aircraft that entered its air defense zone
beijing said the exercises involving naval and air forces were aimed at further testing and improving
the joint combat capability of several branches of the armed forces and branches of the armed forces
after beijing's aggressive military actions in 2021 taiwan's defense minister warned that china
would be able to carry out a full-scale invasion of taiwan by 2025 which sparked discussions
about a potential armed conflict chinese military maneuvers and exercises are a reminder to taiwan
and the united states not to cross beijing's red lines said bonnie glazer director of the
asian program of the german marshall fund of the united states she said these red lines include
campaigning for taiwan's formal independence or the decision to deploy large numbers of american
troops on the island that the threat from beijing is growing cnn last year president said said that
the threat from beijing is growing every day but on the streets of taipei the mood is mostly calm
and confident and analysts agree that despite the rhetoric and saber rattling of the military
china is unlikely to invade taiwan in the near future according to people familiar with the
estimates u.s intelligence officials have also not yet seen anything that would indicate that china
is preparing a military offensive biden repeated the same assessment on monday i expect that this
will not happen he told reporters it will not be attempted the desire for a peaceful settlement
of the confrontation in the taiwan strait makes sense experts have long said that any attempt by
beijing to seize the island by force will be very expensive and with an uncertain outcome
moreover the rapid and coordinated response of the united states and its allies to russia's
invasion of ukraine probably alarmed beijing experts say who suggest that its leaders are
watching the reaction of the west in ukraine referring to taiwan it remains to be seen what
lessons beijing will learn from the ukrainian crisis it could become more cautious in its
calculations in light of russia's uncertain invasion and the west's decisive reaction
but on the other hand beijing could also conclude that any attempt to seize the island by force
will be the more difficult the longer they wait since taiwan can take its defense more seriously
and the united states and its allies can take preparations more seriously with taiwan for this
fight wrote bill bishop an expert on chinese politics and author of the newsletter cynicism