♪
♪ MARKETS BUOYED BY BIG TECH
TURNAROUND.
GETTING NEW INFLATION NUMBERS.
HOW LONG DOES THIS LAST?
SATORI FUND FINDER DAN NILES
JOINS ME NOW.
THANKS FOR COMING ON THE SHOW.
CONGRATS ON A GOOD FIRST HALF.
THE MARKET GOT CLOBBERED BUT YOU
WERE UP ON A GROWTH BASIS AT
LEAST, WELL DONE.
>> THANKS JACK APPRECIATE IT.
JACK: YOU HIGHLIGHT TWO FACTORS
IS GOING TO PUT PRESSURE ON THE
ECONOMY AND THE MARK OF THE
COMING YEARS PAID THE FEDERAL
RESERVE HIKING RATES, COMPANY
EARNINGS FALLING.
TELL US ABOUT THAT.
>> SURE, MY VIEW IS REALLY
SIMPLE.
LIKE YOU SAID DON’T FIGHT THE
FED.
HISTORICALLY THAT’S BEEN USED IN
A POSITIVE WAY WITH THE FED
STIMULATED THE ECONOMY YOU WANT
TO GO WITH IT.
IT ALSO WORKS IN REVERSE WITH
THE FED IS AT THE BEGINNING OF A
TIGHTENING CYCLE.
THEY’VE ONLY TIGHTENED THREE
TIMES.
GOT A LOT MORE THEY HAVE TO DO.
YOU ARE PROBABLY GOING TO GET
ANOTHER 50 -- 75 BASIS POINTS AT
THE NEXT MEETING.
MY GUESS IS CLOSER 75.
INFLATION DATA COMING OUT NEXT
WEEK.
IT WILL PROBABLY STILL BE PRETTY
HYPER THAT’S GOING TO DRIVE
MULTIPLES DOWN.
THE SECOND PART, AS YOU MENTION,
IS EARNINGS.
THE GOING TO START THE EARNINGS
SEASON AND YOU HAVE A LOT OF REALLY BIG THINGS GOING WRONG.
REALLY BIG THINGS GOING WRONG.
THE DOLLAR IS UP SIX -- 7%.
HAD COMMODITY SUPPLY CHAIN
ISSUES PRESSURING MARGINS.
AND YOU HAVE GOT INVENTORY
STACKING UP.
GIVE VERY BIG COMPANIES ALREADY
NEGATIVELY PREANNOUNCED THREE --
SIX WEEKS OF GIVING GUIDANCE
INCLUDING NAMES LIKE MICROSOFT,
TARGET, RESTORATION HARDWARE.
IT’S GOING TO BE IN EARNINGS
SEASON COMING UP.
SAMANTHA UGLY IS THE KEY WORD
HERE.
JUST HOW UGLY DOES A GAP FOR THE
MARKETS?
WHAT IS YOUR PREDICTION FOR THE
S&P FINALLY BOTTOMS?
>> SO, WE STARTED THE YEAR THINK
IT’S GOING TO BE DOWN AT LEAST
20%.
INMATE WE CHANGE THAT THE
THINKING IT WAS GOING TO BE DOWN
30 -- 50%.
BECAUSE YOU’VE GOT TO THINK THAT
IT HAPPEN.
WHY DO YOU HAVE HAD A MULTIPLES
COME DOWN AND.
THEY HAVE NOT COME DOWN IS MUCH
AS THEY NEED TO GIVING INFLATION
IS.
IF YOU WANT TO BE INCREDIBLY
OPTIMISTIC SAY PETE CPI’S GOING
TO A DELL FROM 8% DOWN TO 3%,
WITH CPI ABOUT 3% THAT MARKET
MULTIPLE FOR THE S&P IS STILL 15
TIMES.
TODAY IS IT IS AT 19 AND A HALF.
IN ADDITION TO THAT YOU’VE GOT A
EARNINGS.
THOSE ARE PROBABLY GOING TO HAVE
TO COME DOWN TEN -- 20% BEFORE
THIS DOWNTURN IS OVER.
AND THAT IS JUST GOING TO START.
THAT IS GOING TO CONTINUE FOR
SEVERAL MORE QUARTERS.
THAT IS HOW UGLY I THINK I CAN
GET.
JACK: THAT IS UGLY MATH.
SO HOW SHOULD AN INVESTOR
POSITION HIS OR HER PORTFOLIO
GIVEN ALL OF THIS?
>> I THINK IT DEPENDS ON WHAT
YOU’RE ABLE TO DO.
IF YOU CAN WATCH IT DAILY AND
GET SHORT AND YOU DON’T MIND
TREATING AROUND, YOU CAN TRY TO
USE THAT TO MAKE MONEY.
BUT I THINK MOST INVESTORS
SITTING IN CASH IN SYNC LOOK I’M
GOING TO DEAL WITH LOSING SIX TO
7% TO INFLATION AND THEN I WILL
BUY IN THE DEPTHS OF THE
RECESSION WHEN THE FED IS
FINISHED TIGHTENING AND THEN PUT
MY MONEY TO WORK.
I THINK THAT MAKES THE MOST
SENSE FOR THE AVERAGE INVESTOR
UNLESS YOU CAN GET AGGRESSIVE
SHORT STOCKS IN TRADE AROUND
POSITIONS.
SPENT LET’S TALK ABOUT A FEW
IDEAS YOU HAVE RIGHT NOW.
PLACES TO HIDE OUT DURING TOUGH
TIMES.
ONE OF THEM SEEMS LIKE A SCARY
NEIGHBORHOOD TO ME, CHINESE
INTERNET STOCKS.
WHAT IS THE CASE THERE?
>> WELL, THERE’S A COUPLE OF
THINGS BUT IF YOU LOOK AT THE
U.S. NAMES IN TECHNOLOGY YOU
HAVE GOT PROBLEMS THEY ARE
DEALING WITH, WHICH ARE
ECONOMICALLY BASED.
IT IS COST GOING UP IN THAT
DOLLAR GOING UP.
AND DEMAND FALLING OFF ET
CETERA.
IF YOU LOOK AT TRY TO WHAT YOU
HAVE THERE A LOT OF THEIR ISSUES
ARE SELF-INFLICTED.
IF YOU REMEMBER IT STARTED
BLOCKING THE FINANCIAL IPO FOR
ALI BABA WAY BACK IN 2020.
THAT CONTINUED WITH HEAVY
REGULATION.
IN ADDITION TO THAT YOU HAD THE
CHINESE LOCKING DOWN CITIES.
KNOW WHAT THEY ARE DOING IS
BACKING OFF OF SOME OF THAT
REGULATION.
MOSTLY DONE.
STARTING TO REOPEN SOME OF THE
CITIES WHERE THEY CHANGE THE
TRAVEL BAG FROM 14 DATE OR
QUARANTINE FROM 14 DAYS, TO
SEVEN DAYS.
THEY’VE ACTUALLY PULLED AN
INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING FOR NEXT
CHURCH OF THIS YEAR.
SO THE CHINESE ARE STIMULANT
THEIR ECONOMY WHILE THE U.S.
TRYING TO KILL OFF INFLATION AND
TIGHTEN IT.
AND SO THOSE ARE TWO VERY
DIFFERENT SCENARIOS.
A GOOD WAY TO PARTICIPATE IN
THAT.
IF YOU LOOK AT THIS LAST MONTH,
THE KATE WEBB WAS UP 12% WHERE
THE S&P AND NASDAQ WERE DOWN
EIGHT -- 9% DURING THE MONTH.
IT HAS HUNG IN THE WELL.
PART OF THAT IS IT HAS GONE DOWN
FOR IT IS GONE FROM PEAK TO
TROUGH AT ONE POINT WHERE IT HAD
TO WORK THROUGH ALL THESE
EARNINGS ISSUES AND MULTIPLE
COMPRESSION AND ALL OF THE STUFF