Barcelona’s Pedri is one of the best young players in the world. He’s playing at one
of the most visible clubs on the planet and destined to improve at an exponential rate.
Already, there’s very little that he can’t do and so the question of
whether he will win the Ballon d’Or seems barely worth asking.
But is it that simple? History says not.
First, there are some significant factors in Pedri’s favour.
A key tenet of Ballon d’Or eligibility is winning major competitions, at clubs and at international
level. As a Barcelona and Spain player, he clearly has a good chance of being successful
in both arenas and at just 19, there’s plenty of time within which those stars can properly align.
He’s also already an outstanding footballer who excels in multiple areas of the game
and with a skill and craft that makes him very easy for everyone – fellow players,
journalists and fans alike – to appreciate. His quality isn’t subtle,
nor is it polarising in the same way that, say, Mesut Ozil once was.
So far, so good then, but there are plenty of difficulties,
too – and the obvious ones first: Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappe.
The era of Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi was likely a one-off and Haaland and Mbappe aren’t
expected to dominate the top of the game in quite the same way. The Ballon d’Or won’t become their
personal fiefdom, at least, even if they do become the world’s most popular and famous players.
Nevertheless, both are set to profit from the competition’s pronounced attacking bias. Since
1992, only two defensive players have won the award, Matthias Sammer and Fabio Cannavaro.
With the exception of Luka Modric in 2018 and, arguably, Pavel Nedved in 2003, every other winner
has either been a centre-forward, a volume goalscorer or, like Zinedine Zidane in 1998,
a transcendent player associated with a specific triumph. In Zidane’s case, that
was France winning the World Cup and clinching it in a game in which, naturally, he scored twice.
It's favouritism which exists for good reason. As Michael Cox wrote in a 2014 article for ESPN,
“attackers are the players who literally make the difference, providing the most decisive moments
and the most eye-catching pieces of invention, trickery and skill.”
With that in mind, of course they attract the majority of attention and votes.
Now, clearly Pedri will have few difficulties with invention, trickery and skill,
but – like Andres Iniesta before him – he will likely more often be the original
architect of decisive moments, rather than a regular and routine deliverer of them. So,
how can he collect the award that always eluded Iniesta – and his now-manager, Xavi Hernandez.
To answer that, it's worth dwelling on some of the exceptions in more detail
to understand the context which allowed non-goalscorers to win the
Ballon d’Or and how fortunate those players generally were.
In chronological order, starting in 1996,
converted sweeper Matthias Sammer was Germany’s most important component at that
summer’s European Championships and was quite rightly voted the tournament’s best player.
That triumph came at the end of a season during which he’d also led Borussia Dortmund
to the Bundesliga title. Dortmund were an enormously successful team during that era,
they were on their way to winning the Champions League in 1997, and Sammer was their captain.
Zidane in 1998 we’ve already covered, but – needless to say – his Ballon d’Or was a
part recognition of a truly rare football moment and a success of unusual national
significance. He didn’t have an overwhelmingly excellent tournament, but it’s difficult to
argue with two goals on home soil to win your country the World Cup,
in addition to a Scudetto win and a Champions League final appearance in the same year.
Tellingly, despite everything that would follow in his career,
this would be Zidane’s only Ballon d’Or win.
On to Nedved in 2003: he was probably the world’s best player on merit, but there were
special circumstances that year too. Nedved’s Juve won Serie A this season but would lose the
Champions League final on penalties to AC Milan, in a game in which he wouldn’t even take part.
And yet the enduring memory is not the dour Old Trafford final, which was one of the
worst in the competition’s history, but Nedved’s performance in the second-leg of the semi-final.
It included a superbly taken goal to eliminate Real Madrid but, also
and crucially, a fateful yellow card which left him suspended for the final.
Would Juventus have won the final with Nedved in their side? Possibly.
And did that What If? scenario help create the conditions for him to win the Ballon d’Or?
It’s difficult to say, but it didn’t hurt his case. Timing was important too:
with no World Cup or European Championship that year, Nedved’s case was all the stronger.
On to 2006 and one of the last vaguely unorthodox award prior to Ronaldo and Messi: Fabio Cannavaro.
Of course, Italy won the World Cup that year and Cannavaro captained their side. That the Italians
won on penalties and were perceived to be a team built on defensive solidity clearly helped him,
as did Zinedine Zidane’s famous red card and the fact that Cannavaro was unequivocally the
best defender in the world at the time. Prior to an era in which the case for Ballon d’Or winners
has commonly been overwhelming and obvious, 2006 was an example of how important fate can be.
2018 was further testament. Lionel Messi experienced a disrupted and disappointing
year at Barcelona and, while Cristiano Ronaldo won and top-scored in the Champions League,
Luka Modric was given something which felt akin to a lifetime achievement award.
He had been vital to Real’s success, that year and during their three other European
cup wins, and he’d also been outstanding during Croatia’s run to the World Cup final.
It was a compelling case, but circumstances were clearly also in his favour,
providing another example of the ‘otherness’ required to throw-up unexpected results.
That season’s Champions League final is remembered for Loris Karius’ unfortunate moments
and Mohamed Salah’s first-half injury. In addition to which, had Cristiano Ronaldo
scored Gareth Bale’s famous go-ahead goal, even if it hadn’t been as spectacular, it’s easy to
imagine a different narrative and the Portuguese moving from second to first place in the voting.
And, when France won the World Cup that year, they did so in a way that failed to capture the
popular imagination, with reserved football which only really became expressive in the final itself.
Paul Pogba had a good tournament, so did Ngolo Kante, Olivier Giroud and Hugo Lloris,
but none of them had the body of domestic work to be a true candidate that year,
allowing Modric’s more subtle qualities to be the global focus.
So this is a strange and imprecise science, and yet these uncertain
conditions will still determine whether Pedri ever gets to put a Ballon d’Or on his mantel.
Goalscoring is an individual task which suits individual awards.
For players whose stock-in-trade is anything else, though, the timing always has to be just right.